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Author Topic: What's Next from Canon?  (Read 98222 times)

Don Haines

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #195 on: February 21, 2014, 06:22:51 AM »
I wonder if they are looking further down the road than we give them credit for, and are positioning themselves for the day the DSLRs go mirrorless and that they plan to use the same EF mount and the same EF lenses.....

This makes being on the receiving end of all the name-calling, put-downs and personal attacks worth it, when others start to say what I've been saying all along.  :)
I have believed for several years that the future is mirror less, but I have not believed for a second that the form factor would be substantially different than the current DSLRs. The big reasons for my belief are:
1st. Ergonomics....the 35mm size is the best balance.
2nd.. Lenses. They exist and continue to be improved.
3rd.. Things like dual pixel autofocus.
4th.. Improvements in electronics

Mirrorless is a highly emotional subject to some people, almost as bad as the great film/digital debate. Right now, most cameras are mirrorless, and the trend is shifting more that way. The last two big obstacles are focus systems and viewfinders. Both are getting close, and both have the potential to offer new features and improve on the old.

Imagine, no more AFMA, no more moving parts to wear out...

The EOS-M is not the future of mirrorless, it will be the 1D?, the 5D?, the 7D?, and a host of rebels.

It is possible that the delays on the 7D2 are problems getting this right.....we might be in for a real surprise when it gets released.

Just ask yourself, where are all those people who said digital will never replace film? This is the same debate, just a different component. It will happen, it's just a matter of time...
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 07:31:16 AM by Don Haines »
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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #195 on: February 21, 2014, 06:22:51 AM »

Max ☢

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #196 on: February 21, 2014, 07:24:50 AM »
+1 Don ! I wouldn't have said it better.
Mirrorless as an image acquisition technology, not as a form factor, is definitely the future evolution of our current DSLR. The major roadblocks at the moment are the EVF quality and the AF, but I am confident that improvements of the dual pixel, the OLED and the overall video technologies will clear the way.

Another reason why the evolution towards mirrorless is bound to happen is the associated decrease in manufacturing and quality control costs that will result from the simpler overall camera structure (i.e. less components). This will definitely improve the profit margins for the manufacturers, an argument which is always music to the hears of big corporate managements!
In this end, it is this factor which may drive the transition from DSLR to "DSLM" rather than customer experience or any other marketting argument (although phasing out AFMA will be a very nice evolution step for the users).
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 07:27:06 AM by Max ☢ »

J.R.

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #197 on: February 21, 2014, 07:40:44 AM »
+1 Don ! I wouldn't have said it better.
Mirrorless as an image acquisition technology, not as a form factor, is definitely the future evolution of our current DSLR. The major roadblocks at the moment are the EVF quality and the AF, but I am confident that improvements of the dual pixel, the OLED and the overall video technologies will clear the way.

Another reason why the evolution towards mirrorless is bound to happen is the associated decrease in manufacturing and quality control costs that will result from the simpler overall camera structure (i.e. less components). This will definitely improve the profit margins for the manufacturers, an argument which is always music to the hears of big corporate managements!
In this end, it is this factor which may drive the transition from DSLR to "DSLM" rather than customer experience or any other marketting argument (although phasing out AFMA will be a very nice evolution step for the users).

+1 ... mirrorless still has some way to go before it replaces the current DSLRs.

Canon has the highest market share and has the most to lose if a product goes wrong, so I'm guessing that Canon is simply playing the waiting game (if it ain't broke, don't fix it) till the mirrorless market matures and it will come out with its own mirrorless which will blow the pretenders out of the water. I also expect that it will be perfectly usable with the EF lenses, so yes, mirrorless for the technological improvements, smaller form factor be damned.

It's a pity that people end up whinging on internet forums wanting their perfect (mirrorless) camera from Canon, NOW! The amount of entitlement shown in these forums is staggering.
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Max ☢

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #198 on: February 21, 2014, 08:13:32 AM »
Canon has the highest market share and has the most to lose if a product goes wrong, so I'm guessing that Canon is simply playing the waiting game (if it ain't broke, don't fix it) till the mirrorless market matures and it will come out with its own mirrorless which will blow the pretenders out of the water. I also expect that it will be perfectly usable with the EF lenses, so yes, mirrorless for the technological improvements, smaller form factor be damned.

Indeed - Canon is particularly known on the market to "play it safe" and target just the "good enough" point (i.e. no fancy bells and whistles, which apparently annoys quite some users here) in order to secure a leading market position with the minimum of risk taking. At the same time, I think the company also knows that its primary interest is to secure their revenue streams and maintain or increase their profit margins. If milking some sensor platforms to death is one way to achieve this goal, preparing the future with new camera platforms is also the other strategy, which is confirmed by their significant patent output.

Their habit of not releasing cameras untill the technology within is made bullet-proof explains why Sony and others have "apparently" beaten Canon to the Mirrorless game - Apparently, because I don't think those competitors will eventually win the game by pushing half-finished products to the market (see the list of complaints about de A7/A7r), and prime market innovators are not always those who remain market leaders in the long run (if customer trust is not won overnight, it can be lost very quickly).
I think Canon's strategy in the mirrorless segment is twofold: first, quietly develop the technology in the lab with the goal of reaching a good enough point for the targetted market, and secondly, observe how the competition fares with their attempts on the market. So, the day the mirrorless tech is ready to be implemented in DSLRs, Canon will know exactly how to introduce it in order to extract maximum profit, and the competition will have paid for some of the market insights!

Of course, all this process takes some time to devellop, which make some people quite unhappy, but in the mean time I'm perfectly fine with my 6D which gets the job done :)
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 08:23:22 AM by Max ☢ »

9VIII

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #199 on: February 21, 2014, 10:46:52 AM »
Indeed - Canon is particularly known on the market to "play it safe" and target just the "good enough" point (i.e. no fancy bells and whistles, which apparently annoys quite some users here) in order to secure a leading market position with the minimum of risk taking.

Historically, that's not how Canon became king of the hill.
They abandoned their entire library of lenses to implement the EOS system. They pioneered Image Stabilization. They were one of the first manufacturers to push heavily for full frame. More recently their supertelephoto lenses are some of the best examples of optics on the market, and as controversial as it may be here, lets not forget the video features on the 5D2.

Canon built their empire on cutting edge technology, plus their products are generally solid. I really don't think they would be where they are right now just matching the competition spec for spec.
Ever since the 90's they have been doing new and exciting things on a regular basis, that hasn't changed. What I do think has changed significantly is the way people view the industry, our definition of "regular basis" has changed. People want yearly updates now, if not monthly, whereas before waiting a few years between big announcements was "normal".
Basically people here have psyched themselves into a vortex of expectations, and everyone inside Canon is probably just doing what they have always done.
Come 2020, I'm sure a review of this decade won't be much different from the last.

Except that the last two decades have seen two of the biggest transitions in the entire history of photograhpy (AF and then digital), which may also skew our expectations a little bit.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 10:51:35 AM by 9VIII »

neuroanatomist

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #200 on: February 21, 2014, 10:55:30 AM »
Except that the last two decades have seen two of the biggest transitions in the entire history of photograhpy (AF and then digital)

...and two more stops of DR, don't forget about that!!  Oh wait, that wasn't Canon.  Never mind.   :P
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Chuck Alaimo

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #201 on: February 21, 2014, 11:41:34 AM »
... but it is baffling that Canon does not seem to be interested in the Lion's share of that market :-\ ... surely, with their experience as a successful camera manufacturer, Canon CAN make a great mirrorless camera ... but for some reason they seem to have deliberately crippled the EOS-M. ... yet Canon ain't interested? ... are they deliberately sabotaging the market to give mirrorless a bad name? :-\ :-\

Maybe Canon doesn't own certain key patents regarding mirrorless cameras and thus don't want to be walloped into bankruptcy by a no-account company like Olympus.  ;D
I wonder why you mention sabotaging. As if it isn't their right not to put resources to mirrorless...
I do not understand what you mean by: "As if it isn't their right not to put resources to mirrorless" ... but let me explain why I used the word "sabotaging":
Over the years I've used several third party lenses (Sigma, Tamron, Tokina, Rokinon/Samyang) on Canon cameras (400D, 450D, 500D, 60D, 7D & 5D MKII) and Nikon cameras (D70, D3100, D5100, D7000, D7100 & D6100), when I first got the third party lenses, everything would work well on my Canon/Nikon cameras ... but mysteriously whenever I updated to a new firmware(s), the third party lenses would suddenly not AF as well as they used to before, or the OS/VC would become noisy or the camera batteries would drain faster (when using third party lenses) ... so it is my assumption that Canon/Nikon do some "tinkering" (sabotaging) to "encourage" Canon/Nikon camera users to buy only their lenses (I suppose I'd do the same thing if I was in their shoes ... and why not). If you notice, both Canon/Nikon got into the mirrorless business with disappointing mirrorless camera models ... since Canon/Nikon account for a major portion of camera sales across the globe, they are in a unique position to give a product a good/bad name with subtle tactics. The EOS-M camera was released in June 2012 (that is nearly 21 months ago), yet there are only 2 native lenses available in most parts of the world ... the 11-22mm UWA lens is only available in just a handful of countries ... does one honestly believe that people will not want to buy that awesome small lens, which has received very positive reviews? ... something does not add up here when the ONLY 2 major players (Canon/Nikon) produce halfhearted cameras ... I cannot believe that Canon/Nikon, with their massive resources and R&D, are not capable of producing compelling mirrorless cameras ... for me the only logical conclusion is that they are not interested in the mirrorless business (as they've got far too much invested in their highly profitable DSLR business) and they want it to stay that way ... and the best way of giving mirrorless cameras a bad name is produce halfhearted ones that do not inspire confidence in the general public ... thus "encouraging" people to buy DSLRs ... therefore, the word "sabotaging". Everything is fair in love and war ... and business is war.
I wonder if they are looking further down the road than we give them credit for, and are positioning themselves for the day the DSLRs go mirrorless and that they plan to use the same EF mount and the same EF lenses.....
Quite possible ... obviously, it isn't an accident that Canon holds the numero uno position, they seem to be very clever about their business decisions. Personally, I prefer Canon cameras (with the exception of mirrorless) over any other brand ... and it'd be awesome if we can use EF lenses on Canon mirrorless cameras.

Seems to me that the lion share of the market is that other 80%! 

Mirrorless Mirrorless Mirrorless...Said it before, will say it again - mirrorless needs to find it's identity.  I think canon is putting very little effort into mirrorless because they don't want to take the chance in defining the market.  I think canon is just waiting to see what happens, where will the market go.  Let sony, oly, fugi do the R&D.

As has been talked over, the whole digital market is in flux due to the sheer # of cell phone camera users out there.  mirrorless currently is trying to push this smaller lighter formula, but, will this be a winning formula or will this be the trendy thing that's the talk of the town until the next cool thing arrives?  Unfortunately, for the smaller lighter concept we already have capable devises for that - cell phones.  these are the folks that were buying P&S camera's.  Small light and portable, yeah mirrorless systems are smaller than slr systems but but it's bigger than a cell phone, and unless you buy 1 lens and stick with it, then you've got lenses.  If your a woman I guess you have a purse to put all that in, but if your a guy, and it's summer - 1 device in the pocket or damn, i have to bring that stupid hipsack....and for the biggest segment in that group, you can't send txt's with your mirrorless...so cell phones tend to win.

So, let the other's break the ground here.  Canon can silently wait for mirrorless to figure out that there is a small niche of folks who just want this in it's current form.  As all that is going down, canon can push R&D to get EVF and or Hybrid EVF/OVF into a standard slr form factor with stand slr mount. 

 
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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #201 on: February 21, 2014, 11:41:34 AM »

Rienzphotoz

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #202 on: February 21, 2014, 12:15:18 PM »
Indeed - Canon is particularly known on the market to "play it safe" and target just the "good enough" point (i.e. no fancy bells and whistles, which apparently annoys quite some users here) in order to secure a leading market position with the minimum of risk taking.

Historically, that's not how Canon became king of the hill.
They abandoned their entire library of lenses to implement the EOS system. They pioneered Image Stabilization. They were one of the first manufacturers to push heavily for full frame. More recently their supertelephoto lenses are some of the best examples of optics on the market, and as controversial as it may be here, lets not forget the video features on the 5D2.

Canon built their empire on cutting edge technology, plus their products are generally solid. I really don't think they would be where they are right now just matching the competition spec for spec.
Ever since the 90's they have been doing new and exciting things on a regular basis, that hasn't changed. What I do think has changed significantly is the way people view the industry, our definition of "regular basis" has changed. People want yearly updates now, if not monthly, whereas before waiting a few years between big announcements was "normal".
Basically people here have psyched themselves into a vortex of expectations, and everyone inside Canon is probably just doing what they have always done.
Come 2020, I'm sure a review of this decade won't be much different from the last.
+1 ... well said.
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tron

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #203 on: February 21, 2014, 12:17:38 PM »
Question: What's Next from Canon?

Answer: 5DMkV and 7DMkIII (I did not want to become boring with the usual next models  ;D )

Chiuonthat

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #204 on: February 21, 2014, 02:02:03 PM »
I like to see 6D Mark II.  Improvement over the GPS/battery issue.

Chuck Alaimo

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #205 on: February 21, 2014, 03:25:51 PM »
I like to see 6D Mark II.  Improvement over the GPS/battery issue.

Question: What's Next from Canon?

Answer: 5DMkV and 7DMkIII (I did not want to become boring with the usual next models  ;D )

Merge but delete - the 7d2 is like around the corner.  5d4 is proably still a bit away.  But, given the nature of the 6d, a refresh of that may be a late 20144 or early 2015 thing ----

which I might say is quite interesting ---- how would the 6d2 look?  Given the timing, would we get a peak at the features and capabilities of the 5d4 with the 6d2?  Kind of like, here's something to wet your lips, now don't you want a full drink?

LOL, it would make sense for wedding shooters using either or both systems - if a 6d2 arrived on the scene in the fall of 2015, that's around when I'd probably be considering replacing my 6d, and the fall of 2016 may be when i need to replace my 5d3. 

Either way, my guess is we'll see 1/2-1 year between the 6d2 and the 5d4.  And given how well the 5d3 is doing, I don't think canon is in a rush to refresh that. 

Another thing to consider.... the sooner the 6d refreshes the more lackluster the refresh will be (same sensor, same processor, just a few added things - nothing major - a rebel refresh as it were).  if a 6d2 arrived in the summer it would be pretty much like that I'd say.  But, timed with the launch of a 5d4, they could showcase either a new sensor or new processor - something that gives a preview of what to expect in both the 5d4 and the next 1d series ----if that's how things go then we're waiting cause i highly doubt we'll see a refresh of the 5 or the 1 series till at the earliest late fall of 2015 (and that will most likely be announcement of the bodies, not the launch! ----plus, summer olympics is in 2016....sounds like a perfect time for a 5d4 and a 1dx2!
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Tugela

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #206 on: February 21, 2014, 04:40:03 PM »

which I might say is quite interesting ---- how would the 6d2 look?  Given the timing, would we get a peak at the features and capabilities of the 5d4 with the 6d2?  Kind of like, here's something to wet your lips, now don't you want a full drink?


Both the 7D2 and/or a 6D2 would probably compete in the space currently occupied by the inbound GH4, so similar specs and capabilities would be in place with the main difference between the two being their sensor sizes for stills. I imagine that for something like a 5D4 they would want an improvement over that, so that it was the go to DSLR option for the serious user. That means it's video capability would have to be better, and I am not sure that current tech would allow for that. So a 5D4 might come later, after a 6D2 in the full frame segment.

emko

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #207 on: March 03, 2014, 01:11:53 AM »
never used a EVF is it like the live view on the back? is it going to show blown out areas? i don't know doesn't sound so great maybe i am wrong maybe it can make some things easier to see the exposure before you take the shot just not sure how it is. How is it in low light?

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #207 on: March 03, 2014, 01:11:53 AM »

jeffa4444

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #208 on: March 04, 2014, 01:27:12 PM »
Gfk in December released details about the photography market that sum up a few issues. At the height of analogue (film) the companies were selling annually to a global market around 60M camereras at their peak. At the peak of digital that was 120M cameras last year overall that figure was down to around 80M. The cell phone has killed the lower end where to biggest drops occurred but in 2013 both DSLR and CSC sales declined. In Japan, some parts of Asia and in Germany & the UK CSCs do well but in North America they dont do well or much of the rest of the world. However CSCs have made great strides since 2008 and no one can say the likes of the Olympus OM-D E-M1 or the Fuji X-T1 are not great cameras they are AND they have very good lenses in somes cases as good as or better than L lenses. Then there is the Sony A7R / A7 full frame in a CSC package.
This puts Canon in a difficult position does it reinvent DSLR like Sony or does it go whole hog into CSCs which requires much greater R&D into new lenses as frankly the current offerings against Olympus are weak.
Me thinks they will focus on DSLRs first and try to bring innovation that gives them the same attention Sony is getting from the A7R which currently has a weak lens line-up compared to Canon or Nikon.

Canon are in trouble currently if they still apply tiny steps like the EOS1200 / Rebel T5 then they will lose creditability they need the next big jump.
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neuroanatomist

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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #209 on: March 04, 2014, 01:43:21 PM »
Me thinks they will focus on DSLRs first and try to bring innovation that gives them the same attention Sony is getting from the A7R which currently has a weak lens line-up compared to Canon or Nikon.

Sony may be getting attention…but they don't seem to be getting sales.  Canon continues to get sales. 

Canon are in trouble currently if they still apply tiny steps like the EOS1200 / Rebel T5 then they will lose creditability they need the next big jump.

Ahhh, yes…YAPCD (yet another prediction of Canon's doom).  Thanks for that.
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Re: What's Next from Canon?
« Reply #209 on: March 04, 2014, 01:43:21 PM »