What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2013?

[100]

Anyway, the point I tried to make is that 70%-80% of the market have a bigger influence on product development than 20-30% and that it's kind of arrogant to think that US-buyers will determine the direction of future development of Asian companies like Canon and Nikon.

Not necessarily US, but 'Western' comprises the Americas and Europe, a combined market larger than Asia (at least for now).  The EOS M2 wasn't released in Europe or the US.

The statement was about US-buyers only though…

If we expand it to the America’s and  Europe we have little over 60% market share (rounded by twice the Canadian population this time, it’s 61% based on Cipa numbers ;-)). That’s a much bigger share so it will have a much bigger effect on development decisions.

True, the EOS M2 wasn't released in Europe or the US (though it still might be, but for the sake of argument let’s assume it won’t). It was developed anyway and brought to the Asian market. Development on the next model starts before the previous model is shipped, so if the argument is true the M3 will suffer on the development part because of M1 sales figures. Looks like a downward spiral to me.  If the mirrorless interchangeable-lens camera market isn’t profitable (enough) for Canon, the logical thing to do is either get out of it, or try to change it to make it profitable (enough). If they choose the latter, (game changing) development seems to be the way to get there.

[Rienzphotoz]

In the last 7 years, I've seen 104 people in my office (out of the 148 total staff) who bought a DSLR ... but only 9 of them are actually doing something with their DSLRs. I have an American colleague who bought my entire kit (DSLR, lenses, tripod, flash etc for $2500) in 2009, but he hardly ever uses any of that gear (I think the last he used was over 2 years ago). I think that does reflect the vast majority of DSLR customers in the past 5 years or so ... a lot of them bought DSLRs thinking that it will somehow magically transform their images, because they see other photographers take great images with DSLRs. But they do not understand the basics of photography (i.e. f/stops, aperture, ISO etc) or have the interest in post processing ... most of them use the auto mode and get frustrated that the flash keeps popping up at the most inappropriate times or their photos, from their very expensive DSLR/lens, don't look any better than their smartphone and not many are willing to carry the weight/bulk that comes with DSLRs  ... eventually they give up, some sell it off, other let it collect dust ... the DSLR sales "peak" we are referring to accounts for a vast majority of people who have bought them and pretty much never used them after the first few weeks or months ... basically it was the beginners who were caught up in the hype. Lets face it, DSLR photography is an expensive hobby and the upgrades are never ending ... not everyone is willing to keep on upgrading like some of GAS sufferers.

So, now, it the more serious hobbyists / professionals who are buying/upgrading DSLRs and not the vast majority of beginners (who used to buy till a couple of years ago).

Just the day before yesterday, I gave a ride to an English lady during a bird watching trip (organized by a famous birder), and she bought her Nikon D300 + 18-200 lens 5 years ago ... she told me that she shot less than 1000 photos with it, she says that most of her images don't look any better then her iPhone 4S. So she just uses her D300+18-200 once in a great while, when she thinks she might need some reach. So why should people like her, be upgrading to an expensive DSLR/lens ... so they basically stopped buying/upgrading them ... I think that is the biggest factor in the loss of sales, the economic slow down etc are just secondary factors.

[unfocused]

... the DSLR sales "peak" we are referring to accounts for a vast majority of people who have bought them and pretty much never used them after the first few weeks or months ... basically it was the beginners who were caught up in the hype. Lets face it, DSLR photography is an expensive hobby and the upgrades are never ending ... not everyone is willing to keep on upgrading ...

I don't think I'll buy a 5D4. The 5D3 is so good already. That's the problem, how does one convince me that this camera now isn't worth keeping to make me buy a new camera?

Both of these quotes illustrate the challenge DSLR (and mirrorless interchangeable lens) camera manufacturers face.

At the low end the market is saturated and the fad is wearing off.

At the high end, the cameras are so good, there isn't much need to upgrade. Like RL, I can't think of what would make me upgrade the 5DIII. Especially because, realistically, there just isn't much headroom left for improvements in actual image quality.

For crop sensors, there is still a little more room for improvement, but I'm not sure how much is there either. It's possible the 7DII will fall into the same category as the 5DIII -- meeting the current and future needs of most buyers for quite some time.

Mirrorless may be the next big thing – or it may be a passing fad. I can't shake the feeling that camera manufacturers are simply using mirrorless as a way to try to sell one last camera body to all those folks with DSLRs gathering dust on the shelves that Rienzphotoz refers to.

[unfocused]

It will take a few more years, but to me it seems inevitable that Asia will become the only dominant economic superpower and future advancements in technology and products will be based on the wants and needs of those markets and not on the US or Europe.

However, worldwide cultural homogenization means that the distinctive wants and needs of markets will become less and less relevant. Asian consumers may someday dominate the world economy, but if they share the same taste in clothes, movies, songs, food, etc., as their western counterparts, it's not really going to matter all that much.

True, but trends have to start somewhere. Today the western world is still dominant but with the shift of economic power that may change as well. Our wants, needs  and taste are mostly created by companies these days.

Agreed. Except that I think a lot of our wants, needs and tastes are also being created from the ground up by cultural "hackers" on You Tube, Facebook, etc.

Historically, the United States is a cultural hodge-podge of people who came here, blended with one another and hacked their old world cultures to create something new. I guess my point is that the whole world seems headed in that direction today, for better or worse.

[dgatwood]

I don't think I'll buy a 5D4. The 5D3 is so good already. That's the problem, how does one convince me that this camera now isn't worth keeping to make me buy a new camera?

They don't.  They convince the people who still have a 5Dmk2 to upgrade.  Or they convince 6D owners to upgrade by sticking GPS and Wi-Fi in the 5Dmk4.

[jeffa4444]

Was in my local camera store this afternoon with a friend of my daughter and my daughter. Her friend has got into photography because of her iPhone 5 and just purchased an EOS 6d with 24-105mm f4L, 17-40mm f4L and 100mm f2.8 macro. Thats £ 2,983 minus mail-in cash back of £60.00 making £ 2,923 ($ 3,096). Its the smart phone generation that really gets into photography that will keep DSLRs as well as keen / club amateurs going. Were being pessimistic because sales are normalising but the flip side is of that 1 billion smart phones that were bought in 2013 even if a small percentage buy DSLRs that will be a large number. 

[Chuck Alaimo]

I don't think I'll buy a 5D4. The 5D3 is so good already. That's the problem, how does one convince me that this camera now isn't worth keeping to make me buy a new camera?

i'll answer by 1 upping it ---My guess is the 5 series is tied to the 1 series so they can share R&D cost.  So, what are they going to improve in the next 1series? 

And yup, another way to answer it is to guess on what the majority of feedback to canon said.  Last time around it was all about AF, give us good AF.  Well that's done. and they improved high ISO too.   My guess is we'll see a bump in DR, a bump in MP's, duel pixel, and maybe the holy grail of improved low ISO performance.  the 5d series is the camera of choice for wedding photographers (well, those that shoot canon), and canon has seen that this is a lucrative market so I am guessing the mp bump will be low (up to like 24/26MP's) because you don't want the resolution to be too huge.  AF can stay pretty much the same, just improve the accuracy, integrate that 6d center point.  Boom, I take a pre-order for that please!!!!

Does that meet your needs?  It depends on what you shoot.  It also depends on how many miles you put on your body.  For many of us, the upgrade cycle does closely follow the pattern for body replacement for many shooters.  In 2 years or so when the 5d4 hits the shelves, i will most likely be about to replace my 5d3 or my 6d.  so at that stage my kit may switch to a 5d3 and a 5d4...or a 5d4 and whatever the 6d2 turns out to be. 

If your a studio shooter, or architecture, or something that moves at a slower pace (IE, less shutter clicks per day, per job, per year) then you won't NEED a new body as soon.  So the upgrade does have to be more of a wow!

But for a shooter like me, it's like a car.  I drive a 2004 rav4.  When that car hits the point where repair costs are too great it will be time to replace it.  Bells and whistles won't matter, I'm gonna get a new car cause it's needed

[Chuck Alaimo]

In the last 7 years, I've seen 104 people in my office (out of the 148 total staff) who bought a DSLR ... but only 9 of them are actually doing something with their DSLRs. I have an American colleague who bought my entire kit (DSLR, lenses, tripod, flash etc for $2500) in 2009, but he hardly ever uses any of that gear (I think the last he used was over 2 years ago). I think that does reflect the vast majority of DSLR customers in the past 5 years or so ... a lot of them bought DSLRs thinking that it will somehow magically transform their images, because they see other photographers take great images with DSLRs. But they do not understand the basics of photography (i.e. f/stops, aperture, ISO etc) or have the interest in post processing ... most of them use the auto mode and get frustrated that the flash keeps popping up at the most inappropriate times or their photos, from their very expensive DSLR/lens, don't look any better than their smartphone and not many are willing to carry the weight/bulk that comes with DSLRs  ... eventually they give up, some sell it off, other let it collect dust ... the DSLR sales "peak" we are referring to accounts for a vast majority of people who have bought them and pretty much never used them after the first few weeks or months ... basically it was the beginners who were caught up in the hype. Lets face it, DSLR photography is an expensive hobby and the upgrades are never ending ... not everyone is willing to keep on upgrading like some of GAS sufferers.

So, now, it the more serious hobbyists / professionals who are buying/upgrading DSLRs and not the vast majority of beginners (who used to buy till a couple of years ago).

Just the day before yesterday, I gave a ride to an English lady during a bird watching trip (organized by a famous birder), and she bought her Nikon D300 + 18-200 lens 5 years ago ... she told me that she shot less than 1000 photos with it, she says that most of her images don't look any better then her iPhone 4S. So she just uses her D300+18-200 once in a great while, when she thinks she might need some reach. So why should people like her, be upgrading to an expensive DSLR/lens ... so they basically stopped buying/upgrading them ... I think that is the biggest factor in the loss of sales, the economic slow down etc are just secondary factors.

You hit the nail right on the head here!  People forget there there is skill involved in photography, many do believe that the final image and how good it is is based solely on the camera, not the eye of the photographer, not the settings chosen by the photographer, and because people are used to their phones the post process choices done by the photog.  I get that all the time, people look at my images and say the good old...you must have a really nice camera.  these people think, ohhh...if i spend $$$$ i will make better picutres - which is the scenario you paint there perfectly.  Oh, you need to learn things about light, oh you need to learn things about post process, and if you don't learn then your not gonna get a much better image than your phone could get.

 

[9VIII]

In the last 7 years, I've seen 104 people in my office (out of the 148 total staff) who bought a DSLR ... but only 9 of them are actually doing something with their DSLRs. I have an American colleague who bought my entire kit (DSLR, lenses, tripod, flash etc for $2500) in 2009, but he hardly ever uses any of that gear (I think the last he used was over 2 years ago). I think that does reflect the vast majority of DSLR customers in the past 5 years or so ... a lot of them bought DSLRs thinking that it will somehow magically transform their images, because they see other photographers take great images with DSLRs. But they do not understand the basics of photography (i.e. f/stops, aperture, ISO etc) or have the interest in post processing ... most of them use the auto mode and get frustrated that the flash keeps popping up at the most inappropriate times or their photos, from their very expensive DSLR/lens, don't look any better than their smartphone and not many are willing to carry the weight/bulk that comes with DSLRs  ... eventually they give up, some sell it off, other let it collect dust ... the DSLR sales "peak" we are referring to accounts for a vast majority of people who have bought them and pretty much never used them after the first few weeks or months ... basically it was the beginners who were caught up in the hype. Lets face it, DSLR photography is an expensive hobby and the upgrades are never ending ... not everyone is willing to keep on upgrading like some of GAS sufferers.

So, now, it the more serious hobbyists / professionals who are buying/upgrading DSLRs and not the vast majority of beginners (who used to buy till a couple of years ago).

Just the day before yesterday, I gave a ride to an English lady during a bird watching trip (organized by a famous birder), and she bought her Nikon D300 + 18-200 lens 5 years ago ... she told me that she shot less than 1000 photos with it, she says that most of her images don't look any better then her iPhone 4S. So she just uses her D300+18-200 once in a great while, when she thinks she might need some reach. So why should people like her, be upgrading to an expensive DSLR/lens ... so they basically stopped buying/upgrading them ... I think that is the biggest factor in the loss of sales, the economic slow down etc are just secondary factors.

I have to wonder what people are doing to mess up a shot with an SLR, when I upgraded from a compact I was satisfied with the results even after forgetting to focus with the first few images. I was shooting from a tripod though, maybe it's just flat out unrealistic to compare the experiences of a fiddly nerd type with the average person.
If you're just looking at images on a low resolution screen and not pixel peeping a decent cellphone camera might seem fairly competitive, at least in good lighting. Chances are most people compare quality on instagram (shudders).
Once we have 4K screens on everything... and upgrade instagram, that should help (make cellphone cameras look bad).

Mirrorless may be the next big thing – or it may be a passing fad. I can't shake the feeling that camera manufacturers are simply using mirrorless as a way to try to sell one last camera body to all those folks with DSLRs gathering dust on the shelves that Rienzphotoz refers to.

I really don't see mirrorless entering the equation at all, not in a bad way, just that it's virtually no different in the public eye. Anyone buying one of those would have bought an SLR otherwise.

[Chuck Alaimo]

Was in my local camera store this afternoon with a friend of my daughter and my daughter. Her friend has got into photography because of her iPhone 5 and just purchased an EOS 6d with 24-105mm f4L, 17-40mm f4L and 100mm f2.8 macro. Thats £ 2,983 minus mail-in cash back of £60.00 making £ 2,923 ($ 3,096). Its the smart phone generation that really gets into photography that will keep DSLRs as well as keen / club amateurs going. Were being pessimistic because sales are normalising but the flip side is of that 1 billion smart phones that were bought in 2013 even if a small percentage buy DSLRs that will be a large number.

Wow, that's awesome for her.  I get calls from my parent friends quite often - the good old my son/daughter is really digging photography and we want to encourage it so what do you recommend.  Your friends daughter is quite lucky, most that ask me end up saying their budget is $400-700 - so I point them towards either rebels, or used older models. 

I am betting the #'s on this get wacky though - of the 1 billion cell phones per year, how many will say, i dig photography and want to explore more.  1 out of 1000?  1 out of 10,000?  1 out of 100,000?   And how many (especially if you factor in that many are young) stick with it beyond that initial purchase (add a lens, add a flash, add another lens...etc etc.)?   Add to this one other point --if we're talking about young people, the fresh batch of news photogs - unless you have parents who are that special mix very generous and moderately well to do (not talking rich, but, if your on the low end of the middle class your desire to foster and be generous is tempered by your budget).  your on your own, working part time and saving those pennies for upgrades, which for a 17 year old, that will take a while. 

I'm not saying these are bad shooters at all, just that this age bracket isn't making much money and most likely isn't working professionally so they have much less money to spend than lets say, a hobby shooter who makes 80K a year

[RLPhoto]

I don't think I'll buy a 5D4. The 5D3 is so good already. That's the problem, how does one convince me that this camera now isn't worth keeping to make me buy a new camera?

i'll answer by 1 upping it ---My guess is the 5 series is tied to the 1 series so they can share R&D cost.  So, what are they going to improve in the next 1series? 

And yup, another way to answer it is to guess on what the majority of feedback to canon said.  Last time around it was all about AF, give us good AF.  Well that's done. and they improved high ISO too.   My guess is we'll see a bump in DR, a bump in MP's, duel pixel, and maybe the holy grail of improved low ISO performance.  the 5d series is the camera of choice for wedding photographers (well, those that shoot canon), and canon has seen that this is a lucrative market so I am guessing the mp bump will be low (up to like 24/26MP's) because you don't want the resolution to be too huge.  AF can stay pretty much the same, just improve the accuracy, integrate that 6d center point.  Boom, I take a pre-order for that please!!!!

Does that meet your needs?  It depends on what you shoot.  It also depends on how many miles you put on your body.  For many of us, the upgrade cycle does closely follow the pattern for body replacement for many shooters.  In 2 years or so when the 5d4 hits the shelves, i will most likely be about to replace my 5d3 or my 6d.  so at that stage my kit may switch to a 5d3 and a 5d4...or a 5d4 and whatever the 6d2 turns out to be. 

If your a studio shooter, or architecture, or something that moves at a slower pace (IE, less shutter clicks per day, per job, per year) then you won't NEED a new body as soon.  So the upgrade does have to be more of a wow!

But for a shooter like me, it's like a car.  I drive a 2004 rav4.  When that car hits the point where repair costs are too great it will be time to replace it.  Bells and whistles won't matter, I'm gonna get a new car cause it's needed

I'd probably still be shooting my 5Dc if it had great AF. Idk, the 5D5 is probably where I'd see the upgrade

[Chuck Alaimo]

I have to wonder what people are doing to mess up a shot with an SLR, when I upgraded from a compact I was satisfied with the results even after forgetting to focus with the first few images. I was shooting from a tripod though, maybe it's just flat out unrealistic to compare the experiences of a fiddly nerd type with the average person.
If you're just looking at images on a low resolution screen and not pixel peeping a decent cellphone camera might seem fairly competitive, at least in good lighting. Chances are most people compare quality on instagram

I see this all the time at events and even family gatherings.  amny just think that right out of the box the thing will make amazing images.  so it's left in auto everything mode and all points focus mode. 

Scenario:

why are my shots out of focus.  I take a look...well, you have it on all points, your focus is not locking on what you want it to because the camera is making the call for you. 

Oh, so how do I change that? 

did you read your manual?

no....

if they are on a canon I can help them easily and show them nikon and sony's interface is all wierd --- i tell them they have to just read their manuals...and you'd be surprised how many say they threw that out

from focus points to the good old, how do I stop the flash from popping up to the basics of shutter speed (why is there blur, because your shooting moving things at 1/15th ---- ohhhh, didn't know that...how do I change that)....

It's sad, but it's true.  these are the folks that have only snapped 1000 shots in 2 years on their slr, but well over 100,000 on their cell phones...

[Rienzphotoz]

In the last 7 years, I've seen 104 people in my office (out of the 148 total staff) who bought a DSLR ... but only 9 of them are actually doing something with their DSLRs. I have an American colleague who bought my entire kit (DSLR, lenses, tripod, flash etc for $2500) in 2009, but he hardly ever uses any of that gear (I think the last he used was over 2 years ago). I think that does reflect the vast majority of DSLR customers in the past 5 years or so ... a lot of them bought DSLRs thinking that it will somehow magically transform their images, because they see other photographers take great images with DSLRs. But they do not understand the basics of photography (i.e. f/stops, aperture, ISO etc) or have the interest in post processing ... most of them use the auto mode and get frustrated that the flash keeps popping up at the most inappropriate times or their photos, from their very expensive DSLR/lens, don't look any better than their smartphone and not many are willing to carry the weight/bulk that comes with DSLRs  ... eventually they give up, some sell it off, other let it collect dust ... the DSLR sales "peak" we are referring to accounts for a vast majority of people who have bought them and pretty much never used them after the first few weeks or months ... basically it was the beginners who were caught up in the hype. Lets face it, DSLR photography is an expensive hobby and the upgrades are never ending ... not everyone is willing to keep on upgrading like some of GAS sufferers.

So, now, it the more serious hobbyists / professionals who are buying/upgrading DSLRs and not the vast majority of beginners (who used to buy till a couple of years ago).

Just the day before yesterday, I gave a ride to an English lady during a bird watching trip (organized by a famous birder), and she bought her Nikon D300 + 18-200 lens 5 years ago ... she told me that she shot less than 1000 photos with it, she says that most of her images don't look any better then her iPhone 4S. So she just uses her D300+18-200 once in a great while, when she thinks she might need some reach. So why should people like her, be upgrading to an expensive DSLR/lens ... so they basically stopped buying/upgrading them ... I think that is the biggest factor in the loss of sales, the economic slow down etc are just secondary factors.

I have to wonder what people are doing to mess up a shot with an SLR, when I upgraded from a compact I was satisfied with the results even after forgetting to focus with the first few images. I was shooting from a tripod though, maybe it's just flat out unrealistic to compare the experiences of a fiddly nerd type with the average person.
If you're just looking at images on a low resolution screen and not pixel peeping a decent cellphone camera might seem fairly competitive, at least in good lighting. Chances are most people compare quality on instagram (shudders).
Once we have 4K screens on everything... and upgrade instagram, that should help (make cellphone cameras look bad).

Like Chuck Alaimo has already mentioned, people use it in auto mode ... the auto mode does a great job in good light or subjects that aren't moving too much, so sometimes they get good images in good light (e.g. outdoor day time ... even then the image requires a computer for resizing and uploading to their facebook/twitter accounts) ...  but since the average person generally uses the 18-55 kit lens to take photos of birthdays, parties and other such dimly lit indoor areas or his/her kids running around etc (i.e. fast moving subjects), they soon realize that the photos are coming out all blurry - resulting in missing the "decisive/interesting moment" ... but they see they smartphone has a "Ultra Burst Camera" app that captures 40 frames per second and it only costs a measly few dollars in a device (smartphone) that they are already carrying everywhere they go and it captures the "decisive/interesting" moment and it isn't blurry ... also the average person can instantly upload to their facebook, twitter etc ... he/she would never print an image, so why lug around a hefty DSLR!

[Rienzphotoz]

Was in my local camera store this afternoon with a friend of my daughter and my daughter. Her friend has got into photography because of her iPhone 5 and just purchased an EOS 6d with 24-105mm f4L, 17-40mm f4L and 100mm f2.8 macro. Thats £ 2,983 minus mail-in cash back of £60.00 making £ 2,923 ($ 3,096). Its the smart phone generation that really gets into photography that will keep DSLRs as well as keen / club amateurs going. Were being pessimistic because sales are normalising but the flip side is of that 1 billion smart phones that were bought in 2013 even if a small percentage buy DSLRs that will be a large number.

Excellent point, I am sure there will be many from the "smartphone generation" who will be getting DSLRs/lenses and take photography seriously ... however, I still don't think we will see the same "frenzy" (if I can call it that) for DSLR purchases, we've witnessed in the past 5 years ... and as far as the serious photogs are concerned, I think the DSLR industry has reached a saturation point and the sales figures reflect that.

[Rienzphotoz]

Digitalrev posted the below video on youtube ... and it got me thinking about the amount of DLSRs out there. Ever since the DSLR "revolution" began I've had a total of 11 DSLRs (6 Canon & 5 Nikon) and most of them are obviously sold to upgrade to the next "better" DSLR (and I now have 3, i.e. 2 Canon & 1 Nikon) ... so, just like me there must be tons of people who have bought and sold their used DSLRs ... now if you think of all the millions of DSLRs that have been bought, most of them must have got resold to other beginner photographers or those who can't necessarily afford brand new DSLRs ... obviously there are a lot of used DSLR cameras out there that must be putting pressure on new DSLR sales ... in a way Canon/Nikon are also competing with millions of their own old models.
DSLRs For Under $100