Was in my local camera store this afternoon with a friend of my daughter and my daughter. Her friend has got into photography because of her iPhone 5 and just purchased an EOS 6d with 24-105mm f4L, 17-40mm f4L and 100mm f2.8 macro. Thats £ 2,983 minus mail-in cash back of £60.00 making £ 2,923 ($ 3,096). Its the smart phone generation that really gets into photography that will keep DSLRs as well as keen / club amateurs going. Were being pessimistic because sales are normalising but the flip side is of that 1 billion smart phones that were bought in 2013 even if a small percentage buy DSLRs that will be a large number.
Excellent point, I am sure there will be many from the "smartphone generation" who will be getting DSLRs/lenses and take photography seriously ... however, I still don't think we will see the same "frenzy" (if I can call it that) for DSLR purchases, we've witnessed in the past 5 years ... and as far as the serious photogs are concerned, I think the DSLR industry has reached a saturation point and the sales figures reflect that.