July 30, 2014, 08:57:22 PM

Author Topic: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]  (Read 15760 times)

RGF

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2014, 01:48:50 PM »
Canon has see the D800 sales figures, so they know that high megapixels aren't in huge demand, but they probably also know there is a small subset of customers that will pay a premium for more resolution. Give them what they want, but keep the production costs down.

I wonder how the D800 (e) are doing relative to the 5DM3.  Not in absolute sales but as share of pro / prosumer sales.  Also is the D800 (e) attracting people to adopt the Nikon line or stay with Nikon?

Personally I would like to see Canon adopt the Sony sensor and put it in a 5D body and then license Nikon's 14-24 lens.  That would be truly winning combination.

We have waited long enough for these 2 items and if there was serious competition, I think Canon would have done it or be seriously hurting.

BTW - there long glass is the best; easily topping Nikon.  They just need to a new ultra wide and a high MP body.

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2014, 01:48:50 PM »

paulrossjones

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2014, 02:42:00 PM »
This actually makes sense to me, although I've been skeptical about Canon's "need" to release a high megapixel full frame camera.

I'll go back to a prediction I make quite a while back – I can see Canon releasing a "5D HD" that offers a pixel density somewhere in the same neighborhood as the 7D (46 mp), perhaps a little less. Same body, same basic functionality (with a slower frame rate likely) just a new sensor and maybe a little faster processor.

It would give customers a choice, but keep their production costs down since many of the components could be shared by both bodies.  Canon has see the D800 sales figures, so they know that high megapixels aren't in huge demand, but they probably also know there is a small subset of customers that will pay a premium for more resolution. Give them what they want, but keep the production costs down.

hi, im not sure where you get your viewpoint. i shoot advertising images and i do use a 5dmk3, but the files are almost always on the edge of usability. if there is cropping, or shadows pulled up(or sky recovered) the canon is terrible. the only reason i haven't changed systems is that i shoot with a very shallow dof and the canon has the best lenses for this.
I have tested the d800e and i have brought a sony a7r and in every test i have done with the cameras together the sony sensor absolutely eats the canon. i find the latitude of the nikon and sony cameras closer to my p65+ (but obvious less res) but even better with the darks getting pulled up.
i don't know about the amateur market, but a large promotion of the professional advertising market (not the editorial or sports) has moved to the nikon d800e from the canon and even a lot have dropped medium format for nikon. i could list a dozen photographers in the top of their fields in the world now shooting with nikon. and thats just out of the few advertising photographers i know personally.

im not saying the nikon is the best for usability- the canon has the best interface, lenses and AF, but the file itself is very disappointing. i say this from a lot of canon file experience (I've shot at least 400,000 files with the 5dmk3 in the last few years). the 5dmk3 is a bit of a love hate camera for me..

i really hope canon answers with a better file (latitude wise)- higher MP (which is badly needed for my market) so i can throw away slow, difficult medium format and only need one camera for everything i shoot.

paul
« Last Edit: March 26, 2014, 02:44:50 PM by paulrossjones »

Orangutan

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2014, 02:52:47 PM »
a large promotion of the professional advertising market..

How big is that market?  Is it big enough to drive Canon's R&D and marketing strategy?  Maybe Canon is willing to let that market go (for a while) to avoid making a costly mistake.

paulrossjones

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2014, 03:27:00 PM »
a large promotion of the professional advertising market..

How big is that market?  Is it big enough to drive Canon's R&D and marketing strategy?  Maybe Canon is willing to let that market go (for a while) to avoid making a costly mistake.

i guess they could, but i would have thought theres credibility in owning the top end of the market. the local dealer over here also says the d800 is really well. but maybe you are right?
but i think canon would be silly if they thought like that. its the resin that car manufactures have a limited run sports car- to set their place in the market. i can't see canon just letting the D800e be the best camera on the market.
and they can sell these at a lot higher cost- i am not that cost driven - nor any of the guys i mentioned early. sure we like saving money, but the features of the camera to make life easier is more important. cameras are one the cheapest part of our kits- we didn't ask for it to be this way, but it makes it easy to have multiple bodies etc. the original 1ds cost me 15k nod (12k usd) and it paid for itself on one job. happy to pay this much again for a "niche" market version of a canon camera that can answer the d800.
i heard a while back there was 9000 professional photographers in the UK alone- not sure if this figure is right, but i wouldn't be surprised. even if these people didn't really need the megapixels- i guarantee they would not be able to help them selves if there was a higher megapixel camera available. i can see that even wedding photographers could do with more megapixels- to allow for cropping and different formats. pixel binning makes for better files as well when downsized.

paul


Lightmaster

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2014, 03:51:01 PM »
i heard a while back there was 9000 professional photographers in the UK alone- not sure if this figure is right, but i wouldn't be surprised. even if these people didn't really need the megapixels- i guarantee they would not be able to help them selves if there was a higher megapixel camera available.

and one of them told me that he has no interest to switch (back) to nikon because of the D800 and it´s 36MP.... david noton.

what you want and what you need are two things. :)

i don´t NEED a high megapixel 35mm camera.
i sure don´t need canon to produce a 8000 euro high megapixel 35mm camera.
i bought into MF for this kind of use.

but i sure would not mind a better low iso image quality for landscape images, with more details and cleaner shadow areas.

Quote
....and it paid for itself on one job

well then im sure two or three of your jobs will pay for a medium format camera... not?
i have a phase one and i don´t even make real money with it (not enough that it would justify buying a MF camera).

so if you NEED it and you can make money from more MP... there is a solution -> MF.

i stopped looking for best landscape quality from 35mm cameras.
even the praised D800 can not beat MF.

if canon makes a high megapixel monster i guess it will cost more then the 1DX.
i doubt they produce something that will be in direct competition with the D800.

« Last Edit: March 26, 2014, 04:05:32 PM by Lightmaster »

sdsr

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2014, 04:20:52 PM »

[....]

A perfect second camera will be the A7r ...which means the waiting's theoretically over..once I have it, no matter how good the rumored megapixel offering will be, I wont buy another camera for at least three years. The best thing about mirror less is that we are not tied to one brand anymore. I can walk into a shop today and get a camera that will fit my TS24...36mp and that lens sounds very tempting to me!

Why are we waiting so long for Canons megapixel offering?


As you point out, the only people who have to wait are brand loyalists.  Obviously some people have to be, but those who don't might as well do what some of us have done and supplement our Canon bodies with an A7r.  I love mine, both with its superb native primes and my Canon EF lenses (plus a few old manual focus lenses) - so much so that I'm not sure which is my second camera....

unfocused

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2014, 04:33:27 PM »
...I'm not sure where you get your viewpoint. I shoot advertising images and I do use a 5dmk3, but the files are almost always on the edge of usability...a large proportion of the professional advertising market..

How big is that market?  Is it big enough to drive Canon's R&D and marketing strategy?  Maybe Canon is willing to let that market go (for a while) to avoid making a costly mistake.

...I guess they could, but I would have thought there's credibility in owning the top end of the market.

paul

I don't disagree. I think it's just a question of what that credibility might be worth...especially during difficult economic times.

My perspective is this: The entire professional market has been shrinking. I don't think anyone can deny that. Some segments may be growing, but even in the growing areas, they are more price sensitive than ever before.

That's not just photography, but just about everywhere. Companies want to get the most for their money and are slashing expenses everywhere they can.

That's reduced the overall market for professional photographers...it's reduced the budgets that are available to hire professional photographers...and it's reduced the resources available to companies like Canon. Those who are at the top of the market may be feeling this less than others as you may have clients who are less price sensitive, but I strongly suspect that for the bulk of the market, photography, like any service, is under intense pressure to hold down costs.

I think, but certainly don't know, that Canon has concentrated on the markets first where they can sell the most at the best profit. I think the 5DIII was perfectly suited to that strategy. The improved autofocus met pent up demand and the improved high ISO performance made it attractive to event and wedding photographers, which is probably the largest remaining pool of professionals out there.

The D800 to me, has always seemed like a fine camera, but it didn't appear to have as clear of a market. I can understand the appeal of advertising shooters but just how large is that market? My sense is that it is concentrated in large cities and I can't believe that the numbers are anywhere close to the numbers of wedding and event photographers. Professional landscape photographers are an even tinier subset of the professional base.

So, my premise is simply this: I think Canon went first for the largest market with the 5DIII. They actually "over-delivered" based on what people were demanding. (Go back and read threads from when the 5DIII first came out and see how many wedding photographers were ecstatic over the ISO performance and how many others were stunned that Canon would put almost the same autofocus as the 1DX in the 5DIII.)

The high megapixel market is a niche market. For those who need it, it is critically important. I understand that. I just don't know how many people need it.

So, this all goes back to my main premise, which is that the most cost effective approach for Canon would be to take an existing model (either the 1DX or the 5DIII) and produce a High Definition or HD version. That would allow them to maximize some production efficiencies while meeting the more narrow needs of those who want or need a higher definition body.

Long post I know, but trying to explain my reasoning. If you can show me where I am wrong, please do. You know the market better than I do and perhaps I'm totally off base, but so far, no one has been able to show me that.

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2014, 04:33:27 PM »

LetTheRightLensIn

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2014, 04:57:28 PM »
Can movie theaters show 4K movies with their digital projectors?  I'm not really sure what resolution the average 'non-hollywood' film is shot in though.  I would assume it is 1080p or the wide screen equivalent.

At this point, some theaters can and some can't.

I just got a 4k monitor and I have to say some of the 4k clips are pretty amazing! It finally starts feeling more like you are there rather than looking at a digital video file. and it's awesome for stills images of course. and anything to do with text for that matter too.

LetTheRightLensIn

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2014, 05:03:27 PM »
The reason they haven't come out with the thing you personally want is that they don't have to.  They will produce new products when the market demands them.  Until then, they'll milk (MILC?) the R&D they already have invested in the current line.



Granted the camera business is much different so this is maybe slightly sketchy of a comparison, but such an attitude isn't always the best for a company. Look at Atari, the engineers wanted them to release an advanced new computer with GUI and mouse and multi-tasking and crazy level graphics and audio but the management said they hadn't finished milking the old 8bit line yet and saw no point in it. Who uses an Atari home computer today? Plenty of other such cases.

(Even look at lower end video. The 5D3 didn't really make much of a splash compared to the 5D2 among movie-makes (my impression anyway) until Magic Lantern unlocked a lot more quality. it may have been coincidence but I couldn't help but notice that the 5D3 price had slumped quite a lot and then ML RAW came out for it and the price shot back up to full list for quite some time again. They went into market segmentation, protection mode instead of full steam ahead domination mode.)

I hope the rumor is for real and that they will finally have improved low ISO DR too (even bigger to me than upping the MP count). If it could still handle 1080p ML RAW, add in nice compressed in cam 4k (and please, please turn off the NR and smoothing digic so loves to do! canon loves to give this crisp details on contrasty edges and then give a plastic look to everything else with their in cam processing), bump the MP count, get exmor-like DR and maintain 6fps man that would be one awesome camera. And they certainly have, IMO, the nicest lens line-up around to go with it. They also need to allow for cropped modes so when shooting distance limited stuff to take advantage of the reach of the MP bump you don't waste so much storage on the edges, that might also allow for even higher fps (although >6fps FF mirror boxes do start to add to cost it's true, so hard to say about fps).


« Last Edit: March 26, 2014, 05:08:49 PM by LetTheRightLensIn »

Orangutan

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2014, 05:08:08 PM »

...I would have thought there's credibility in owning the top end of the market.

I don't disagree. I think it's just a question of what that credibility might be worth...especially during difficult economic times.

How many people buy DSLRs based on the top-end?  How many care what name plate is on the big white lenses and brick-like bodies at sporting events?  How many bought Canon equipment because they saw Art Wolfe on TV?  A few maybe, but not many.  More likely the choice is made based on what "celebrities" pitch, and and what their friends shoot.  Mercedes Benz could not expect much from the name if they got into the budget car market.

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #25 on: March 26, 2014, 05:14:20 PM »
The reason they haven't come out with the thing you personally want is that they don't have to.  They will produce new products when the market demands them.  Until then, they'll milk (MILC?) the R&D they already have invested in the current line.
Granted the camera business is much different so this is maybe slightly sketchy of a comparison, but such an attitude isn't always the best for a company. Look at Atari, the engineers wanted them to release an advanced new computer with GUI and mouse and multi-tasking and crazy level graphics and audio but the management said they hadn't finished milking the old 8bit line yet and saw no point in it. Who uses an Atari home computer today? Plenty of other such cases.

Canon is a large, diversified company with a lot of R&D and clever management.  I would be surprised if they don't have the basic tech available when the need (==strong market pressure) arises.  If some other company starts out-competing the 5D3 and 1DX, I am confident that Canon can match their products in a year or less.

The fact that Canon HAS not put advanced tech in the cameras does not mean they CAN not do so.

Don Haines

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #26 on: March 26, 2014, 05:29:37 PM »

...I would have thought there's credibility in owning the top end of the market.

I don't disagree. I think it's just a question of what that credibility might be worth...especially during difficult economic times.

How many people buy DSLRs based on the top-end?  How many care what name plate is on the big white lenses and brick-like bodies at sporting events?  How many bought Canon equipment because they saw Art Wolfe on TV?  A few maybe, but not many.  More likely the choice is made based on what "celebrities" pitch, and and what their friends shoot.  Mercedes Benz could not expect much from the name if they got into the budget car market.
In the canon world, it's the T3i that's really sells, followed by the T5i, the 70D, the 6D, the 5D3, and the 1DX pulling up the rear for sales..... Without an exception, lower priced models outsell higher price models.... Obviously price is the major factor...

Most will be saying "Who is Art Wolfe". Some will remember Ashton Kutcher was in a Camera commercial, but most won't remember what brand he was plugging..... It's kind of like car adds.... They all say the same thing and after a while they all blend in together....

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ecka

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #27 on: March 26, 2014, 06:20:23 PM »
I would expect a 88.4MP 4K FF sensor (11520x7680)
« Last Edit: March 27, 2014, 05:04:35 AM by ecka »
FF + primes !

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #27 on: March 26, 2014, 06:20:23 PM »

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #28 on: March 26, 2014, 06:30:15 PM »
Friends are a bigger influence.

Price and availability are probably bigger still.
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Don Haines

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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #29 on: March 26, 2014, 06:43:47 PM »
Friends are a bigger influence.

Price and availability are probably bigger still.

Which is why I said that price is the major factor....

But you are right about availability, the lower cameras can be bought almost anywhere... You see them in electronics stores, department stores, I've even seen rebels for sale in a grocery store and in small town general stores.  I live near Ottawa, the Capitol city of Canada with over a million people, and if I wanted a 1DX I would have to order it in because nobody stocks them.
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Re: New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]
« Reply #29 on: March 26, 2014, 06:43:47 PM »