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Author Topic: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011  (Read 24411 times)

hsmeets

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #30 on: September 26, 2010, 05:54:49 AM »

Excellent points.  The articles are over my head, but trusting their analysis, we can hope that the camera makers will see this 'wall' coming and not try to smash through it for some marketing reason.


I guess "pixels sell" is the photographic version of "sex sells".

Looking at myself, my photography and my current camera and printer: I basically came to the conclusion that anything that is reasonably priced (around € 2000), offers 20 - 24mpx, is usable up to 1600iso, can do 5 to 7 fps, basically covers my wants/needs for many many years to come. And those 24mpx are more or less just to get passed the "reasonable doubt" and nothing else.

There are camera's today that fit my bill, but as 2011 seems to bring new ones and iI'm not in a hurry i'll wait and see what 2011 will bring. And then will not buy a new camera for maybe 10, 15 years (bar a total-loss defect).

Reading of customer that stop buying every camera thrown at them must be scaring the S___ out of manufacturers.




« Last Edit: September 26, 2010, 05:58:34 AM by hsmeets »

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #30 on: September 26, 2010, 05:54:49 AM »

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #31 on: September 26, 2010, 05:06:48 PM »
Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't understand the logic that says a 5D Mark III needs to be released before a new flagship camera.

Wouldn't Canon want the new flagship to showcase the latest and greatest technology? The 5D seems to still be pretty well positioned in the market now, so why rush to replace it?

Not pretending to have any special insight, but it seems at least as likely that Canon would unveil a new flagship and leave the 5D Mark II out there for awhile.
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Justin

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #32 on: September 26, 2010, 07:57:22 PM »
Canon must refresh the 5D soon. Nikon will steal more market share without it. The 5d af and fps are crippled. It makes just as much sense to release a new pro ff as it does a new flagship. In anycase what I wish canon would do is remove the AA filter and focus on DR. 5-6 fps is great and 19-45 pt AF with the zones of the 7d will be expected.

Other than that we need more lens updates.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't understand the logic that says a 5D Mark III needs to be released before a new flagship camera.

Wouldn't Canon want the new flagship to showcase the latest and greatest technology? The 5D seems to still be pretty well positioned in the market now, so why rush to replace it?

Not pretending to have any special insight, but it seems at least as likely that Canon would unveil a new flagship and leave the 5D Mark II out there for awhile.

rejames1

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #33 on: September 27, 2010, 01:12:03 PM »
Anyone care to speculate on what the initial $ might be on a 5d III body?

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #34 on: September 27, 2010, 02:36:30 PM »
Anyone care to speculate on what the initial $ might be on a 5d III body?

lots of speculation going on about that already.  everybody's ideal scenario is that it costs as much as the 5D Mark II did on release: $2699.  there is some precedent for this possibility, given that the 5DII cost less than the original 5D on release.

however, given the pricing trends of the latest batches of canon lenses, and the state of the yen-dollar exchange rate, it does seem a little optimistic.  clearly, the price also depends on how revolutionary the camera is in terms of specs and tech (which would relate back to how high a price Canon feels it needs to set in order to recoup R+D costs).

I'm expecting it to drop for $3000 to $3300.  we've seen estimates by others on this forum that range as high as $4K.  I'm willing to bet it will fall in that overall range, between $2700 and $4000, but definitely leaning more toward the 3 grand amount, rather than the high end.

spam

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #35 on: September 27, 2010, 02:39:00 PM »
Anyone care to speculate on what the initial $ might be on a 5d III body?

It will depend on so many factors that it's impossible to say, including what the competiton do. Right now there isn't much direct competition. The Sony A850/A900 is closest with higher resolution, but no video mode. D700 has only 12MP, but is otherwise a better camera. I'd expect Canon to increase pixel count, and improve frames per second and AF slightly. They might base it on either 7D or 60D, personally I'd guess 60D and it would be great if they could get a FF into that body. Given these parameters I'd guess a price a bit over 7D, somewhere in the $2000-$2500 range depending on how much of the 7D they use.

spam

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #36 on: September 27, 2010, 02:44:43 PM »
Anyone care to speculate on what the initial $ might be on a 5d III body?

lots of speculation going on about that already.  everybody's ideal scenario is that it costs as much as the 5D Mark II did on release: $2699.  there is some precedent for this possibility, given that the 5DII cost less than the original 5D on release.

Almost all models so far has started cheaper or worst case same price as the previous one did.

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #36 on: September 27, 2010, 02:44:43 PM »

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #37 on: September 27, 2010, 08:16:05 PM »
Anyone care to speculate on what the initial $ might be on a 5d III body?

lots of speculation going on about that already.  everybody's ideal scenario is that it costs as much as the 5D Mark II did on release: $2699.  there is some precedent for this possibility, given that the 5DII cost less than the original 5D on release.


that would make me hugely happy if the 5DIII clocked in below $2699 ... to the point that I would consider upgrading immediately

Almost all models so far have started cheaper or worst case same price as the previous one did.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2010, 10:25:14 AM by kubelik »

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #38 on: September 27, 2010, 10:41:28 PM »
Anyone care to speculate on what the initial $ might be on a 5d III body?

lots of speculation going on about that already.  everybody's ideal scenario is that it costs as much as the 5D Mark II did on release: $2699.  there is some precedent for this possibility, given that the 5DII cost less than the original 5D on release.

that would make me hugely happy if the 5DIII clocked in below $2699 ... to the point that I would consider upgrading immediately

Almost all models so far has started cheaper or worst case same price as the previous one did.

I think that the 5DIII will remain at the same price range as the previous models, simply because there's too many competitors in the same block (aka D700-next-gen).

Profit? They problably regain it through those updated-and-expenseive lenses. ;D

I think if Canon can fix the AF (at least on par with one in the 7D) and boost the viewfinder's coverage to 100-percent, it would be an ideal FF model for most people. While FPS may be a bit slow, I could live with it if it maintains the high MP count.
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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #39 on: September 28, 2010, 10:41:22 AM »
http://www.luminous-landscape.com/tutorials/resolution.shtml

About lenses and sensors.

What I understand from this is that in daily practice shooting at f8, f11, a sensor like the one as in the 5Dm2 starts to out resolve lenses.
So all this improvement is just for better cropping / digital zooming?
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kubelik

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #40 on: September 28, 2010, 10:47:23 AM »
ronderick, you bring up a good point, and a huge question in my mind: to what extent are camera bodies merely loss leaders?  anybody here actually within the industry or familiar with the business?

Edwin Herdman

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #41 on: September 28, 2010, 03:25:43 PM »
Sad, so we are going to see DSLRs go the pixel race way...
Shocking!  A megapixel war!  Quick, somebody put a rumor rating on this one!

hsmeets

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #42 on: September 28, 2010, 03:29:14 PM »
http://www.luminous-landscape.com/tutorials/resolution.shtml

About lenses and sensors.

What I understand from this is that in daily practice shooting at f8, f11, a sensor like the one as in the 5Dm2 starts to out resolve lenses.
So all this improvement is just for better cropping / digital zooming?

Nope, I suspect it's more marketing driven, it's like we dutch say a pissing contest, who covers the biggest distance is winner.

Given current 5Dmk2 specs it would take little effort to create a mk3 that would cover my needs for many, many years to come.  I think that scares the S___ out of Canon/Nikon: that users stop with buying anything thrown at them as the camera's are just fine for what they are.

And frankly, if such canon (or nikon) materialises next year I actually will stop buying camera's for a long time.

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #42 on: September 28, 2010, 03:29:14 PM »

Justin

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #43 on: September 28, 2010, 04:59:40 PM »
Buying a camera every year or two is too much for most people. But it's taken awhile for the technology to get to a point where people want to wait so long between upgrades. In a perfect world Canon would differentiate its products enough so that people would want to own and hold onto multiple cameras. An aps-c mirrorless camera system. A aps-c fast system. A full frame and fast enough system. A super high resolution medium format system.

I could see owning several of these cameras and systems of lenses if they were all available to me. I'd probably own three. The mirrorless, the fast aps-c for sports, wildlife and reach, and the medium format for fine art attempts and landscape. Unfortunately these don't exist. What I am trying to say is that Canon can mitigate any resistance to upgrade by offering compelling alternatives for different types of shooting and shooting styles. 



http://www.luminous-landscape.com/tutorials/resolution.shtml

About lenses and sensors.

What I understand from this is that in daily practice shooting at f8, f11, a sensor like the one as in the 5Dm2 starts to out resolve lenses.
So all this improvement is just for better cropping / digital zooming?

Nope, I suspect it's more marketing driven, it's like we dutch say a pissing contest, who covers the biggest distance is winner.

Given current 5Dmk2 specs it would take little effort to create a mk3 that would cover my needs for many, many years to come.  I think that scares the S___ out of Canon/Nikon: that users stop with buying anything thrown at them as the camera's are just fine for what they are.

And frankly, if such canon (or nikon) materialises next year I actually will stop buying camera's for a long time.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2010, 05:02:06 PM by Justin »

Edwin Herdman

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #44 on: September 29, 2010, 05:56:11 PM »
And frankly, if such canon (or nikon) materialises next year I actually will stop buying camera's for a long time.
Nikon is on record saying that they will strive in the future (after their last 10MP professional camera, which was out a while ago) for a 'better balance of ISO and resolution' (paraphrase).

Enjoy your vacation!

The extra MP does have its drawbacks (namely fewer pictures on your media, more hard drives to buy, and a bit more time processing images) but there are some good points too.

Right now I'm more interested in better metering, autofocus, ISO performance (which has been demonstrated to improve as sensor density increases, more than just a coincidence), and DR.

More megapixels can serve just to magnify problems.  Take a blurry picture on an APS-C camera because of slow ISO sensitivity and a poor non-stabilized lens...move it to full frame and the blur isn't reduced at all (per pixel, assuming pixels are the same size), and add more pixels and you just can see "deeper" into the mess.  Unfortunately I've found that's the most usual case.

But when things go right - you have a fast shutter speed or you have an adequate setup (IS lens, tripod), the extra pixels should help.

Of course, using old lenses from before 2000 probably isn't the best thing for sheer accuracy.  But I'm limited in what I can say from personally having used two primes and a super-cheap film zoom.  I remain as interested as ever in newer designs though.

It is interesting to look at high ISOs though.  Higher ISO sensitivity comes at no weight cost, unlike faster lenses, and the ISO improvements are ramping up faster than maximum apertures (which of course aren't getting faster because manufacturers assume they aren't as important with digital cameras).  But I feel that especially for consumer cameras and lenses, the combination of sensitivity and available "consumer-priced" lenses currently is a bit too slow for really sharp images.  But it's improving quickly.  I'd love to get my hands on a 60D but I'm afraid that only full frame cameras have the ISO I'd like, in the immediate future.

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Re: Canon & Nikon Flagships in 2011
« Reply #44 on: September 29, 2010, 05:56:11 PM »