The Problem Canon seems to have with the 1DX and 7DII, is that the 1DX is still selling well and the second Canon release a 7DII, those sales will tail off pretty fast. It's just not possible to make a 7DII without it being a 1.6x version of the 1DX. The 5DIII is already a full frame 1DX lite....so a 7DII must therefore be a cropped sensor 1DX lite also. Ergo, simular frame rate, AF array and 18mp as the 1DX.
Agree with the 'lite' statement, but a camera is far more than those three specs:
- Consider what that 'lite'ness costs you:
- No integral vertical grip
- Slower burst (presumed)
- Can't get as small a DOF at the same aperture
- No spot metering at any AF point
- No built-for-war build quality (the current 7D is great, but I though the 1D build ways always a step up from that)
- This forum is loaded full of people that reject the notion that an APS-C rig with an Xmm lens takes shots as good as a FF rig with a 1.6Xmm lens. (I don't want to start a back and forth on that here, but it's an important point in comparing 7D2's true threat to the 1DX's sales.)
So I feel that current or prospective 1DX users would feel a bit handcuffed on a 7D2 platform. As such, I see a 7D2 user not having a tremendous overlap with 1DX users, and I only see 7D2 stealing a small amount of 1DX business.
I think the 7D2's #1 value proposition is for folks where length is everything. The 1.6x either limits how expensive a supertele you need to buy (a 400mm instead of a 600mm) or it lets that 600mm do more as a 960mm FF equivalent.
So, I dont know why I have this locked in my head, but the 7D2 screams wildlife (esp. birding) to me. It sure it will do most everything else well, but the value proposition to wildlife folks for length reasons is spectacular. I don't have all the white lens prices in front of me, but getting 90-95% as good a shot as FF for half the price and weight of body + lens is a compelling sales argument.
(Another reason why the 1DX overlap is smaller than you think: 1DX users aren't looking for 90-95% as good as something -- they want the best money can buy in that format. That separates the users pretty clearly for me.)
The #2 value proposition might be 'the best camera you can buy without moving into crazy dollars' -- and that screams enthusiast (who would rarely buy a 1DX) to me.
If anything, the 7D2 might steal business from the 1DX as a second
body choice to complement their 1DX. Sports guys, maybe?