Announcements in January & February [CR2]

[Canon Rumors]

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Where have all the rumors gone? Everything has dried up recently after the crazy month and half of talk. We saw a new pro body, as well as a whole new camera system from Canon.

I received word that Canon has 2 or 3 announcement slated for January and February. Logic would say lenses, DSLRs and PowerShots would receive separate billing if the “3″ is true.

I have also heard elsewhere that we won’t see anything DSLR related announced until March 2012.

Full Frame? The last thing I was told, is we’d see a larger megapixel full frame camera available by the summer of 2012. One would assume 5D Mark III, but it could be something else. Anything that far off is hard to pinpoint.

I’ve heard as many as 5 full frame camera prototypes are out there.

5D Mark II @ B&H | 5D Mark II @ Amazon | 5D Mark II @ Camera Canada

cr 

[Picsfor]

and that would all make sense.

I go with my earlier comment in another thread that the 5D3 will be out in time for the Olympics but nicely after the 1DX rush has been satiated...

May i think i said. You heard it here 

[traveller]

I have also heard elsewhere that we won’t see anything DSLR related announced until March 2012.

So that would be the 650D then?   

The last thing I was told, is we’d see a larger megapixel full frame camera available by the summer of 2012.

Hmm... Not specifically the 5D MkIII then... Could this mean that Canon are changing their minds and have decided to (or always intended to) produce a 1D Xs (or maybe a 1Ds X -for real Canon lovers!  ).  Or maybe they will split the 5D line...

Meanwhile there is great discuss on NR about the vapourware D800... Personally, I think that a lower megapixel D4 is more likely given the Olympics. 

[te4o]

what do you think a "rush" for a near 7000 $ gadget is? I am not rushing into this one (not that i dont like it) and I asked too long ago how many of mere mortals would "rush" into it just because there has been no other FF announcement.
While all FF announcements to be made are technologically interrelated (what trickles down what comes new) I don't think they are timely related. Canon is still in the product & market research phase with their next FF and this bodes well. I can't believe that they will be waiting for whoever wants a new-age FF to collect and spend 7K on 1DX, then ask again in the round and then release another one. That's why I guess announcement is independent of 1DX and may or should be in early 2012 with a similarly protracted availability. No science or knowledge here - just guessing. Like you, Picsfor.

[KyleSTL]

Meanwhile there is great discuss on NR about the vapourware D800... Personally, I think that a lower megapixel D4 is more likely given the Olympics.

I think a formal announcement has to be made in order to qualify as vaporware.  Has Nikon said anything about the D800 yet?

[JR]

Hey Graig, what about new lens?  Any word on that?  Any chance for the new 24-70L II and more "L" primes (like 35mm 1.4L II) in January or are we looking more like next summer now?

[EYEONE]

I would assume one will be the new Rebel. I'm curious to see how Canon will manage to improve the 600D. Maybe Canon does need to update the 7D just so the Rebels and xxD have so room to breathe. It's getting pretty cramped down there. Canon may need to bump up the price ranges of the 5DIII, 7DII and 70D to spread things out a little.

The other could be the 5D III. IF there are two announcements for bodies the second one would have to be the 5D III.

As far as lenses, if we see one announcement I'd put money on the 24-70mm f2.8 II. Maybe IS maybe no IS. Doesn't really matter to me one way or the other.

If we see two lens announcements perhaps the 14-24mm f2.8 (hopefully) or an official announcement of the 200-400 f4 1.4x.

So there are my thoughts. I know everyone wanted to hear it.

[gmrza]

I believe the EOS650 was launched on 1 March 1987 - then it would be plausible for Canon to launch a new product on 1 March.  I have also seen one reference that the EOS650 was launched on Canon's 50th anniversary - in which case 1 March would be Canon's 75th anniversary.  Can anyone corroborate whether 1 March is Canon's 75's anniversary?  One reference I have seen is that "Precision Optical Instruments Laboratory", which was the predecessor to Canon was established in 1933, but it appears the legal entity (Precision Optical Industry, Co., Ltd.) may have been formed in 1937.

[Edwin Herdman]

Meanwhile there is great discuss on NR about the vapourware D800... Personally, I think that a lower megapixel D4 is more likely given the Olympics.

I think a formal announcement has to be made in order to qualify as vaporware.  Has Nikon said anything about the D800 yet?

No, you're right.  But in the inimitable words of Ken Rockwell (direct quote from his D800 page):

The D3X was announced on 01 July 2008, meaning I'd expect the D800 to be announced in the summer of 2009 and ship at the end of 2009.  [Last page update is from December 2010.]

Nikon has had some real problemsl latelty, and has had to keep pushing back the D800 launch.

Well, I hope nobody would imitate those spelling errors, at least.

So, at least from Nikon land we see evidence that cyclical refresh cycles are not strictly followed by the camera makers.  Now that I think of it, the camera makers probably want to keep their release dates from becoming too predictable, because that could lead to a fall in sales in quarters preceding an anticipated new body.  If it's not coming that will lead to frustration and tears all around as buyers don't get a camera in the interim and the manufacturer doesn't have a new camera to offer (not to mention a lost sale).

I believe the EOS650 was launched on 1 March 1987 - then it would be plausible for Canon to launch a new product on 1 March.  I have also seen one reference that the EOS650 was launched on Canon's 50th anniversary - in which case 1 March would be Canon's 75th anniversary.  Can anyone corroborate whether 1 March is Canon's 75's anniversary?  One reference I have seen is that "Precision Optical Instruments Laboratory", which was the predecessor to Canon was established in 1933, but it appears the legal entity (Precision Optical Industry, Co., Ltd.) may have been formed in 1937.

I don't know about the dates, but maybe they could release a Kwanon / Kannon (goddess) special version, eh?  At least I would hope Canon wouldn't celebrate their 75th anniversary with yet another gold model (that's more Nikon territory).

[neuroanatomist]

I would assume one will be the new Rebel. I'm curious to see how Canon will manage to improve the 600D. Maybe Canon does need to update the 7D just so the Rebels and xxD have so room to breathe. It's getting pretty cramped down there. Canon may need to bump up the price ranges of the 5DIII, 7DII and 70D to spread things out a little.

Bunching up down there is just fine.  A new Rebel/xxxD only needs modest 'improvements' (not even real ones, just something marketing can make sound real).  Digic5 is probably sufficient.  Maybe a touchscreen.  The 60D is getting older, too...so, maybe they'll start a trickle-up AF bump, first giving the Rebel the 9 cross-type points, then giving the xxD's the 5D's invisible 6 points on top of the 9 cross-types, but they'll call it 15 point AF, and the 5DIII will get pretty much the same thing, keeping both xxD and 5D lines below the current 7D (and the 7D's AF will be reused in the 7DII). 

Point is, they aren't really trying to entice current generation or 1-2 gens back in the Rebel line to upgrade, they're trying to capture first-time dSLR buyers but keep the line 'fresh'. 

[gene_can_sing]

I'd be happy with a new Rebel with Digic 5. Better video for sure. At this point, the new Canon Digic 5 point and shoots have much cleaner video than the current DSLRs, so I'm sure the Rebel will follow. I just hope it comes out soon.

Something cheap to hold me off until the DSLR video hybrid, then the Rebel will be a great B-Cam.

[Zuuyi]

One update will be the T4i & T4.

One will be the 5d3.

I'm not sure about P&S or Lenses.  But I would think the 24-70/2.8 ii or 24-70/2.8 IS will be announced.

The fourth camera will either be the 70d or 7d2.  They are both approaching end of product cycle (guestimating on 7d since it's the first) with the Xxd line it's between 1 year and 2 years and they were all released in Feb or August.  So if you don't see it in Feb you will see it August.

The reason I think it will be the 7d2 is for high end consumers who are going to olympics; if you can afford the olympics you can afford a 7d.  In addition there will be quite a few sports photographers (1ds owners) down-grading to a 7d2 instead of upgrading to a 1dx.  So they will likely to want that out too.

If they add 1080p to the T4 I can see a few pros with older (non HD-video) bodies picking one up for video potential.  To be honest it's not a bad camera at all (t3).  I thought about getting a 7d2 & 60d as the backup.  I think I'm just going to get a 5d3 & T4 as the backup.  I do limited sports photography.

[Murdoc]

I'm personally excited to see a new xxxD or xxD entry. I'm still using a 350D and I'm waiting to update, but I have to save some cash to realistically grab a new body and L lens. Hoping the 70D brings back the magnesium alloy body and MFA would be a plus. Digic 5 for sure, not sure how I feel about the articulating screen though. I'm exceptionally rough on my equipment, seems like a breakage point to me.

[neuroanatomist]

One update will be the T4i & T4.

Yes to the T4i, no to the T4.  The XS/1000D laster 2 years.  Not having a new sub-entry level camera pushes people to the xxxD line.

[unfocused]

Point is, they aren't really trying to entice current generation or 1-2 gens back in the Rebel line to upgrade, they're trying to capture first-time dSLR buyers but keep the line 'fresh'.

I wouldn't be so confident about "knowing" what Canon is doing. I just watched a great presentation about Kodak (link can be found on another "rumors" site) and disruptive technology. I was struck by the parallels between what happened to film over the past 10-15 years and what is now happening to the camera market with cell phones.

That could be a complete discussion on its own, but for this discussion the point is simply this: the camera market is undergoing a major "disruptive" technological change with cell phone and tablet cameras. If Canon is smart (and I think they are) they are not unaware of the implications of these changes and are working to position themselves to survive this latest disruption.

What does that have to do with this discussion? Simply this: a customer in the hand is always worth two in the bush. The traditional upgrade path (basic point and shoot to sophisticated point and shoot to basic DSLR to sophisticated DSLR) may not survive the cell phone camera disruption.

Canon may be focused simply on attracting new DSLR customers. But I don't believe it's possible to say that with certainty. The DSLR market is mature. Growth is likely to be incremental in the future.  Who really knows what the logical upgrade path from iPhone may be (if there even is an upgrade path).

So, is Canon really focused solely on attracting new DSLR customers? I'm sure they would like to grow the  DSLR base, but a cold, hard analysis of the marketplace may tell them otherwise.

What might a different path look like? Well, we know from their production numbers that they have one heck of a lot of DSLRs out there with only one lens. Over the past few years, Canon has been aggressively marketing two-lens kits. Perhaps they know that once a customer owns two lenses, they are more likely to buy a third lens, upgrade their existing lenses, upgrade to a different body or perhaps all three.

I'm guessing that they've done the math and determined the relative cost of converting a Rebel owner into a more lucrative enthusiast versus attracting a new DSLR owner. I'm not suggesting that Canon doesn't want new DSLR owners, I'm just saying we shouldn't make such assertions as though they are fact.

So, rather than "knowing" that Canon just wants to attract new customers, we really have an "unknown" – the path to profitability and sustainability in the DSLR market may come not from an expanded base but from monetizing the existing base through enticing upgrades in camera bodies and lenses.