As for your CIPA comparison of 1H14 to 1H13 – keep in mind that the major players in mirrorless have all released new models this year, whereas the #1 dSLR maker has not released a new consumer model so far 2014. I think you're making too much of a short-term trend.
Yep, no new xxxD, xxD, or xD camera from Canon would certainly affect short term sales, probably in the same way the T5i, 70D, and 6D (actually being available closer to Dec 2012) coming out in 2013 boosted that years sales for Canon. What were the ratios in 2012 and 2011? Not to mention, ratios that are 3:1, 4:1, etc are still pretty massive...you're talking several years at your presumed shrinking pace til they'd be 1:1
edit: Yeah, so, the 3 year trend line pretty much shows mirrorless as a steady niche, and DSLR sales heavily dependent on new cameras coming out (notice the sharp drop after Photokina announced cameras have been sold a few months). When Canon and Nikon both release entire new lines of cameras (2012 and 2013), sales are seasonal but steady. When they dont, they slump.
Id also say there is a clearly slight decline in DSLR sales as a total trend, but its hard to attribute that to mirror less. Could be the lack of big improvements in DSLRs...could be world economies...could be distribution delays carrying over from 2012