As 2011 winds down, I wiped the profuse drooling I have become prone to since 1D-X was announced, and reassessed when â€œrealisticallyâ€ a 5D3 could be in my hands...not an announcement...an actual body I can unbox.
Central to the timeline is what sensor Canon would use on the 5D3; would they do what they did before with 1Ds3 and 5D2 and use a similar sensor as the 1 series, though not many expected them to, not the least of which the 1Ds3 owners who doled out premium $$$? Or will they put resources into generating a redundant sensor just making minor MP tweaks and fixing a bit of ISO?
I think history will repeat itself. I would expect a similar sensor to 1Dx, but as noted by some earlier, heavily crippled goodies including AF, fps, Digic versions, build and weather sealing, etc... This will annoy the 1Dx owners, as it did the IDs3 earlierâ€¦but canon will wait a descent enough time in between the two releases to buffer the blow. If they use a similar sensor, in order for them not to be beat to a pulp by the enraged 1D-x owners who spent $6000+, they have to wait a decent period of time, even if announced earlier, to actually ship... oh lets say...a year
So hereâ€™s the likely time line: till about April 2012, the 1D-x eats up all the oxygen in the room. The 5D3 crowd is antsy, becoming rabid by summer (just what Canon wants, desperation, Cha-ching!). They throw a few teasers of coming attractions throughout the rest of the year but without actually delivering any concrete details or making any real announcements. Breaking point in December 2012. The "I-want-my-5D3-now" crowd is having kittens and SPCA is overflowing. Having sold 1000â€™s more units of 5D2â€™s interim, and having eked out maximum anticipation, they finally announce 5D3 around December 2012, but hereâ€™s the kickerâ€¦.you have to wait oh just a few months for it to ship and you to have funâ€¦that will put it off till March 2013 (not coincidentally exactly 1 year from 1D-x landing in people's hands). Oh fine! Possibly, Feb 2013? A month can save thousands jumping off the cliffâ€¦;)
Bottom line, lots of drool, but no 5D3 in hand till early Feb/March 2013. Sounds about right?
Now based on CR's last post on 5D3 MP levels, there is more reason to believe what I suggested above earlier is possible with the 1DX like sensor being featured in the 5D3 replacement. In speaking about 5D3 replacement, I mean a product that will target an "average
" 5D2 customor who had bought 5d2 at about ~$3000 pricepoint give or take a few.
We are not
talking about the highly vocal fans who say they don't mind paying $4500 or more for more features and MP. Such a body is not a "direct" replacement to 5D2 price point.
It may well be that Canon can easily make a 36+ MP sensor, upgrade electronics to increase data flow, engineer moderately higher ISO performace in a body. Perhaps we can wish in our wet dreams that it will shoot at blistering 12fps, upgraded AF, in a weather sealed body, that dances a jig when we whistle...such a body is likely to target a higher price point
as previously noted by some good heads here.
Using 1DX -like sensor will save Canon R&D dollars. By using 1DX like sensor, Canon can quickly deliver a new FF body with lower features
than 1DX for about~ $3000 or so. They have used similar sensors in higher/lower end bodies before ....no reason to believe they won't do it again.
But keep your chin up MP folks! Based on what Nikon does, a higher MP version may well follow, but
at a higher price point or with limited features to maximize profits. Best!