...I also think there is a chance the 5D MKIII could also be priced above $3K and don't see $3200 as unrealistic...
IMO, Canon has already tipped their hand on the price of the 5D3 and it will be significantly higher. I think you have the prices about right. Otherwise why take out a bunch of buyers like me with cheap 5D2 if 5D3 is around the corner? I'd gladly wait and pay $2700 for a 5D3 until a 5D2 shows up for $1999 bundled with stuff I'll actually use. Then the wait ends and I buy now.
But then I am not a candidate for a $3200 body regardless. I have faith Canon marketing knows the price elasticity of their market well enough to not ding their 5D3 market by dumping cheap 5D2s to people like me. And that leads to a single conclusion: 5D3 is going to cost substantially more. However, I suspect it will be well worth it for those willing to buy in that price tier.
It can always be tough when their is something new, better and greater out there. Then again, there are some incredible shots that have been made with the 5D MKII over the last few years, so it is not like the camera is not capable.
Would I pay an extra $1000 for a 5D MKIII over what I paid for my MK II which would put it say around $2700 after selling my MKII, maybe a little more...
Tough call, but one I could probably justify. Anything less than $2500 is a no-brainer, and even if I take a $400 bath selling the MK II, to me it still would be a "cheap" rental fee for lots of experience as well as a gained appreciation on the MKIII.
As it potentially pushed up into the $3K / $3.2K range... That becomes tougher. At that point I may start thinking of glass or picking up a 7D to balance out the attributes. I think it is pretty hard to beat the combo of a 7D and 5D MKII especially when double-strapping both.
I will start throwing aside $100 a month for the potential upgrade, but can easily see where that may put me more Feb 2013 than Sept 2012.
Again, I think post Jan 7th or when ever those lens rebates expire, I think the 5D MKII prices will start rising, especially if a MK III is in a 6 month window or so, stock will dwindle.
If anything, I think that this "clearing" of stock is more about inventory reduction to do just that... put an upward pressure on prices once the stock thins to allow the MK III to be released at a price point somewhere around $1000 to $1200 or so above the MK II.