Handsomerob - I think you make some good points, however I think the only real one that would force a 2012 date is a d800 for obvious reasons. The reason I am skeptical is that there is zero proof of a 2012 release date, not a jot. The question was more of an attempt to explore people's reasoning rather than anything else.
If the hypothesis of a 2012 date is true, what else must be true:
- d800 will definently be released in 2012 or
- 5d2 is selling very poorly or
- canon have publically committed to a 2012 release date
None of these have happened.
The price drop tends to elicit confirmation bias, a price drop in itself signifies nothing, it could be a sign of a price drop but then it could not, but people tend to only see what they want and expect to see and don't try and disprove their beliefs, in this case 'have canon dropped the 5d2 price before without a 5d3 release?', yes they have. As such unfortunately a price drop in the 5d2 suggests nothing.
The 5d3 rumours seem a very similar (just more drawn out) version of the iPhone 5 rumours of 2011; The more something is repeated the more truth is imputed to it, despite a lack of credibility of the source(s).
Personally I take the honest route about this in that "I don't know when it will be released".
You're one of those super technical people aren't you? Like if I were to casually say "Man I was running like the speed of light," you'd be one of those people that would be like, "OH OK, YEAH RIGHT MAN!, SO YOU WERE RUNNING 186,202.1083508132756082735 MILES PER HOUR? YOURE AN IDIOT NO HUMAN COULD DO THAT OR THEIR SKIN WOULD MELT OFF BLAH BLAH BLAH!." You police the internet waiting for someone to be incorrect so you can stick it to them right?
Why are you being so damn cynical? Why are you so mad that some people think it will come out this year? I THINK it will come out this year, and I think this because of all of the information I've received in regards to the matter. I don't think anyone is saying "I'm 1000% sure the 5D will come out this year." And you can say "I don't know when it's coming out" all you want, but it's apparent that your answer is "2013 or later." But your answer is no better than anyone else's, just an educated guess based on the information you have.
The 5DIII is LONG overdue, you do realize the 5DII will be 4 YEARS OLD in August right? That's ancient in the technology world. Do you know how many customers Canon would lose if it waited until 2013 to release it? Honestly I think if it weren't for all the natural disasters we would have heard an announcement already.
The reason I think its going to come out this year is because (aside from the reasons already stated) Canon Rumors has been saying it was going to be announced in Feb-Apr 2012 for over a year. And from experience, when the guy CR2's something its more than likely going to happen.
Oh and save my screen name and come back in April so I can say I told you so.