Why are people so sure that a 5d3 will be realised in 2012?

[Doodah]

Because Thom Hogan says in his blog (bythom.com):

"Sometime in early 2012 we're going to have the full FX body updates from both Canon and Nikon. In the case of the 5DII and D700 follow ups, there will be substantive pixel increases (the rumors put both in the 30's)."

And Thom Hogan's leaks (NOT his predictions though) are typically spot on.

[Jedifarce]

Imo, Internet rumours have a unique ability to fire up confirmation bias with rocket fuel to turn conjecture into 'fact'.

Anybody else have doubts about a 2012 5d3? I mean there is no reason not for a 2013 date.

 I'm not sure but posters here are fairly certain about it. I think it's more of a concern for folks whom haven't purchased the 5D II yet and are on the fence. I can see the dilemma, should they make the jump to the 5D Mark II now, only to kick themselves when the Mark III comes out a month later? That would drive me crazy as well.

 My concern isn't really the Mark III, but deciding what Zeiss CP.2 primes -almost 4k each- I should invest in. 

[ronderick]

I'm going to tackle this subject from a different perspective:

Would the 5D2 remain on the market as a "current" model even after the release of the 5D3?

I think the situation has been a lot more clear with the recent price drop of the 5D2 under 2K. It seems like a lot of people are reacting favorably towards a full-frame body in the lower price range.

At this point, I think it would make a lot of sense to keep 5D2 on the market under 2K while introducing the 5D3 at the usual 5D-model price range.

Just some thoughts...

[BaconBets]

The best way to predict what is going to happen is forget what you are hoping for and what you are expecting. Forget the timelines of the past and don't extrapolate and expect strict adherence to release patterns. Digital cameras are maturing, and the last big revolution has occurred (video) - and the camera manufacturers were even caught off guard by it.

So what you do now is pretend you are in Canon's boardroom. What strategy GOING FORWARD will help you sell the most cameras without cannibalizing your own line? We now know the 1dx is coming and what to expect from it. It is going to be a speed demon in every sense (FPS, AF, ISO). We know Nikon's D4 will be the same.

Which means a high MP FF regular body cam with pedestrian handling would complement the line and not compete with it. Expect this type of camera sooner than later.

A lower MP FF regular body with improved iso and handling would only piss in the 1dx's cornflakes.
Expect this kind of camera later than sooner.

Expect Nikon to fall in line with this, as they are also a for profit company recovering from disaster.

Wildcard - If Nikon releases a high MP D800, but also releases a D700s using the D3s sensor after the D4 is released....then all hell will break loose and Canon will have to respond.

[dilbert]

Because Thom Hogan says in his blog (bythom.com):

"Sometime in early 2012 we're going to have the full FX body updates from both Canon and Nikon. In the case of the 5DII and D700 follow ups, there will be substantive pixel increases (the rumors put both in the 30's)."

And Thom Hogan's leaks (NOT his predictions though) are typically spot on.

He isn't the only "professional" that I've seen saying that all of the DSLR manufacturers will be bringing out 30+MP full frame DSLRs however I suspect that the combination of earthquake/tsunami/flooding has upset some of the planning.

[wickidwombat]

I'm going to tackle this subject from a different perspective:

Would the 5D2 remain on the market as a "current" model even after the release of the 5D3?

I think the situation has been a lot more clear with the recent price drop of the 5D2 under 2K. It seems like a lot of people are reacting favorably towards a full-frame body in the lower price range.

At this point, I think it would make a lot of sense to keep 5D2 on the market under 2K while introducing the 5D3 at the usual 5D-model price range.

Just some thoughts...

definately on the cards i think Nikon did that with the D90 after the D7000 came out is the D90 still a current model? it might be

[alexanderferdinand]

Canon is a big player and will try to stay one.

So: if Nikon, Sony will cycle/refresh their products, so Canon will follow.
The Mark 2 is still a very good camera I like to use, although spoiled by the Autofocus of the 1D Mk4.

Nobody is sleeping their, maybe the big three are playing Mikado (first who moves has lost), waiting what the others do.

New cameras in the class A900, D700 and 5D will come, it`s the money.

Pretty sure this year.

[Enrico]

Of course there are "product cycles" as in they are working on something new that we call "5D3" and that they started working on that some 3-4 years ago. Canon probably already have a few team prototyping different versions of the next "1DX2".

Then, when it comes to releasing a product and marketing that specific department will run the show and play the waiting game, getting most bang for the buck game etc...

I think photo industry works the same as many other industries, say cars for instance. Developing a "new car" as in a totally new model takes 10 years. And that model will "live" / have a value for about ten more years. Of course you do small updates yearly, perhaps an enginge from a parallell model, interior design... (which is common started 2 years in advance). But then the model is oudated and replaced with a new one they worked on those ten years.... repeat.

I think the same goes for photo (although shorter cycles perhaps).

The 1DX came out as a new platform (ie they stoped the 10 year old earlier platform and started a new)

What they will do with the xxxD, xxD, 7D and 5D only they can tell.

But surely they talk about it in terms of product cycles.

[K-amps]

I'm going to tackle this subject from a different perspective:

Would the 5D2 remain on the market as a "current" model even after the release of the 5D3?

I think the situation has been a lot more clear with the recent price drop of the 5D2 under 2K. It seems like a lot of people are reacting favorably towards a full-frame body in the lower price range.

At this point, I think it would make a lot of sense to keep 5D2 on the market under 2K while introducing the 5D3 at the usual 5D-model price range.

Just some thoughts...

Interesting thoughts... perhaps if not for any reason but for fixed (R&D) cost coverage. from a Labor/Material/Overhead perspective, the two should cost Canon the same... however the margins on the 5d3 will be much greater because of the bump in price... would they then entertain cannibalization of the 5d3 by the 5d2?

If past history is worth anything, I would agree... they's rather keep Nikon off, and entertain a bit of losses on the bidy, since this way, we can all buy pricier EF glass.