a new month slice is meaningless because it can go up and down based entirely on mass shipments.
there was a month I believe when canon released the M into NA that Mirrorless jumped to 60% marketshare over a two month period. was that a trend?
To add from http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/sony-throws-some-smack.html
"... the metric for the press release's claim is dollars, not units. The implication is that Sony didn't reach #2 in unit volume in the US. In other words, Sony may have sold fewer cameras, but they were more expensive is a logical conclusion you can make.
... the time period associated with the claim is very brief: January and February 2017 (versus same period last year). Generally the start of the year is a slow sales period. Plus it's just one market that is cited, the US. The period in question comes immediately after NikonUSA's big full frame promotions in November and December 2016 had ended... NikonUSA did virtually nothing in those two months to promote camera sales, while Sony was aggressively doing so. And we'd also need to go back and look at January/February 2016 and see what was happening in the sales channels during that time to make full sense of Sony's claims, since they're using data from those months, as well.
...sales dollars are generally not a great statistic to look at as predictive. The reasons that all of us analysts look mostly at unit volume is that it is more predictive of long-term success... Unit volume over time also tells us about trajectories, and allows us to be more accurately predictive of future volume...
I'm also reminded of the 2007-2008 period, where Nikon wrested the full frame unit volume crown from Canon briefly. That was celebrated by Nikon (mostly in Japan), as it should be, but celebrations have this hangover problem. If you get too caught up in small victories, you might miss out on the big one. Canon certainly fought hard and got their market share back. So when Sony throws smack like this, I'm pretty sure that it fully caught both Canon's and Nikon's attention.
Expect a reaction. It might not happen quickly, but you don't make statements like the one Sony did without getting a reaction from the rest of the market."
Thom Hogan's last 2 paragraphs are referring to the following:
Interchangeable lens camera market shares for Canon & Nikon over the years:
Canon - 47% (2006), 42% (2007), 38% (2008), 44.5% (2010), 40.6% (2012), 43.3% (2014), 49% (2016)
Nikon - 33% (2006), 40% (2007), 37% (2008), 29.8% (2010), 34.7% (2012), 32.1% (2014), 28% (2016)
Look at the stats during the 2007-2008 period and witness what happens after that.
He believes Sony is going to experience the same kind of short term euphoria. And I concur.