June 22, 2018, 01:29:31 PM

Author Topic: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic  (Read 18266 times)

Mikehit

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #30 on: February 16, 2018, 03:34:05 AM »
Thanks for confirming that you have no actual data to support your assertion.
Neither have you, at least under the assumption that insults are not considered data. I have one more data point for you, though: compare this thread from 2015 about the upcoming 600 DO vs. the thread from late 2016 vs. the most recent thread here. Compare enthusiasm, number of postings in the first 24 hours, compare whatever you want, but there is a noticeable difference. The latest thread has mostly professionals and dedicated wild life shooters discussing a lens they seem to need, the two previous threads are full of additional people filled with excitement about a lens they will likely never buy but dream of having.

Also, member ship of camera clubs have changed, IME. Back in the 1980s/1990s camera clubs were largely populated by people who were keen enough to own decent gear (which was relatively costly) and people who were willing to have a go at developing their own pictures. Now, everybody has access to camera phones, compacts and DSLRs and freebie processing software is everywhere.  The pool is much wider and the percentage of people with big expensive gear gets lower.
Owning a camera for a few snaps does not automatically lead to people joining a photo club. People in our club a generally enthusiastic about photography, about lighting and studio work, some more into architecture and urban landscapes. It's just the excitement about new cameras and lenses that appears to have been lost. One guy actually did buy the 600 L II just recently, didn't even bother bringing it along, just showed around some shots on his smart phone for the few who cared. Such a thing would have been unthinkable five years ago.

And neither of those backs up your assertion that people bought big whites so they could brag about it.

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #30 on: February 16, 2018, 03:34:05 AM »

Rudeofus

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #31 on: February 16, 2018, 04:07:27 AM »
I'm not the one who started making assertions, you are. The burden of supporting them falls on you. If you can't substantiate your claims, they're just your personal opinion...you're welcome to share that opinion, but you may as well be claiming the earth is flat for the credibility it has.
Claiming that my assertion is flat out wrong is a statement as well, and requires just as much evidence - of which you have provided not a trace so far. Again, childish insults and speculation about my orifices do not constitute evidence.

Obviously you don't understand the difference between data and anecdotes.  For most people, that would be sad.  For an engineer, it's downright pathetic.
The evidence I provided you with would well constitute empirical data, while you have provided absolutely nothing insightful to this thread until now. So far you have only brought up the kind of reactions and responses that are standard repertoire of toddlers when someone belittles their favorite toy.

Note, how others brought up circumstantial evidence, which corroborates my statements: much reduced shop floor space dedicated to cameras and lenses, camera stores going out of business left and right, people leaving their dSLR gear mostly at home, ...

And neither of those backs up your assertion that people bought big whites so they could brag about it.
Let me state my assertion more clearly such that misunderstandings are less likely: a sizable number of professionals and serious amateurs needed and had expensive camera gear for years and continues to buy it - all for very good reasons. Then there was a huge crowd of gear worshipers (I may well have been one of them), who drooled about long glass or other high end gear but likely never bought any (my 70-200 is my only white lens, and certainly much cheaper than Canon's big whites).

Out of this crew of gear worshipers grew a class of people who bought gear to impress and to gain reputation with this very crowd. These are the people who constantly rag&rave about their fancy gear, how life is supposedly next to meaningless without this gear, yet unconsciously leave the impression that their gear is a solution desperately looking out for a problem. These people used to bump up sales volumes for expensive gear, they co-financed Canon's R&D and made high end gear economically feasible - a great thing for those whose job and work actually depends on availability and affordability of these cameras and lenses.

My observation was, that the crowd of gear worshipers has shrunk substantially during the last couple of years. The length comparison of these three threads about the 600 DO is just one piece of evidence for this. Once owners of big&expensive gear no longer gain envious looks and high reputation, they will stop buying into this stuff, and overall prices will rise at the same time as new products get either delayed or canceled altogether.

Mikehit

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #32 on: February 16, 2018, 05:04:41 AM »


Out of this crew of gear worshipers grew a class of people who bought gear to impress and to gain reputation with this very crowd. These are the people who constantly rag&rave about their fancy gear, how life is supposedly next to meaningless without this gear, yet unconsciously leave the impression that their gear is a solution desperately looking out for a problem. These people used to bump up sales volumes for expensive gear, they co-financed Canon's R&D and made high end gear economically feasible - a great thing for those whose job and work actually depends on availability and affordability of these cameras and lenses.

And you believe that that this group of people was sufficiently large to account for the significant drop in sales figures? I suggest you look at the sidelines of any major porting event....

My observation was, that the crowd of gear worshipers has shrunk substantially during the last couple of years. The length comparison of these three threads about the 600 DO is just one piece of evidence for this. Once owners of big&expensive gear no longer gain envious looks and high reputation, they will stop buying into this stuff, and overall prices will rise at the same time as new products get either delayed or canceled altogether.
How has this thread supported your view of the reasons people actually buy such gear.
I like hifi - I drool over gear I would not buy even if I had the money.
I look at fancy cars and like talking specs and new developments - but to me cars are functional tools and I would rather spend my money elsewhere (like a 600 f4 lens if I had the choice)
All these threads prove is that people are interested in the technology, not that they are money-splashing egotists (either now or in the past).

Am I denying that some people buy things (cars, hifi, cameras, jewellry, even certain types of kitchen knives) for status? No. What I am questioning is (a) your original blanket assertion that people bought big whites to brag (which you seem to have moved away from when challenged) and (b) that this group of people is remotely large enough to account for the scale of the drop in sales shown in the CIPA figures.

Rudeofus

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #33 on: February 16, 2018, 07:11:02 AM »
I finally found some real numbers on CIPA web page, sadly they only go till 2016:
  • Total number of interchangeable lenses sold dropped from 30.4 million in 2012 down to 21.7 million in 2015 and even further down to 19.2 million in 2016
  • Average lens price dropped across the board between 2015 and 2016, despite the fact that newer cameras tend to ask for better and more expensive lenses to fully exploit their potential
  • Peak price per unit was somewhere between 2014 and 2015, while higher economic growth in 2016/2017 should have resulted in more sales of more expensive lenses in 2016
  • The numbers shown for 35mm fixed focal and special purpose lenses completely dwarf the total number of any lens seen at any sport event. I sure hope for Canon, that they sell more white superteles than what you see at this year's Olympic games.

Mikehit

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #34 on: February 16, 2018, 08:26:55 AM »
I finally found some real numbers on CIPA web page, sadly they only go till 2016:
  • Total number of interchangeable lenses sold dropped from 30.4 million in 2012 down to 21.7 million in 2015 and even further down to 19.2 million in 2016
  • Average lens price dropped across the board between 2015 and 2016, despite the fact that newer cameras tend to ask for better and more expensive lenses to fully exploit their potential
How do you draw that conclusion? I already own a 70-200 f4LIS, one fo the sharpest lenses in Canon's catalogue. If I upgrade my body I need to upgrade my lens? More likely that an improved body helps me to recognise the full potential of a lens I already have.
All bodies are so good now, I upgrade for functionality, not IQ

  • Peak price per unit was somewhere between 2014 and 2015, while higher economic growth in 2016/2017 should have resulted in more sales of more expensive lenses in 2016
WOW! Talk about extrapolation ! Another purely subjective interpretation
  • The numbers shown for 35mm fixed focal and special purpose lenses completely dwarf the total number of any lens seen at any sport event. I sure hope for Canon, that they sell more white superteles than what you see at this year's Olympic games.
Do you have any information on the breakdown of sales to pros, semi-pros, enthusiasts and braggers? Without that your conclusions are (again) purely subjective guesses (I wouldn't even grave them with the word 'interpretation'
[/list]

So as neruo pointed out, you have no facts,  merely a personal view on the limited data presented to you.
Surely as an engineer used to looking at data, do you not think you are pushing things too far?
No-one is denying the fact the camera market has dropped, and just because people have more money doe snot mean they will spend more on camera gear. One thing noted recently about spending patterns is that people are moving away from buying 'things' to buying 'experiences' - so maybe the camera market reflects this as well: instead of staying at home and buying super teles for bird photography they have decided to spend money on gong places to see wildlife in exotic places.
Maybe average lens price has dropped not because the slaes of super teles have dropped but because proportionately more people are buying cameras at the entry level so the average price drops. Or people bought  expensive cameras in the boom of the 2000's but realise that they are not using cameras as much so stopped buying cameras (which are now good enough for them) and moved onto other hobbies. Or a  mixture of everything.
But no, you assign it to ego.

bwud

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #35 on: February 16, 2018, 09:23:35 AM »
In case anyone is wondering, the fact that it's white had no bearing on the purchase ;)

LOL +1 :D

What do you think so far?  100-400LII with a 2x on a 6DII is a no go for me in nearly all cases.  Even a 1.4x is not really enjoyable to use unless it's a very bright day.

I’m not super keen on the 2X, largely because the A7r (unlike the A9) doesn’t support PDAF at f/11 or smaller max apertures, and using it in continuous mode results in a lot of weirdness (strange visual disturbances in the EVF, which I am guessing are manifestations of the IS systems, but am not sure). Single shot CDAF is excellent and snappy, but if anything is moving much you’re in for some effort.

The EVF however I find advantageous over f/11 combinations using OVF.

Sharpness is largely good. It’s significantly better than my Tamron 150-600 (not that it’s the hallmark of quality) albeit darker with the 2X.

Also, the dual IS (in lens and in body) is highly effective. I can shoot handheld 800mm shots at 1/250s, and even crop into the photos, as in this moonrise. The image is not impressive, but the fact that it isn’t just a blur is!

« Last Edit: February 16, 2018, 09:35:23 AM by bwud »

old-pr-pix

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #36 on: February 16, 2018, 10:18:19 AM »
Let's face it, actual facts and accurate data are not publically available.  Thus we resort to personal observations extrapolated into pure speculation.  In that spirit herewith are my observations:
-Counting white lenses on sidelines used to be indicative of Canon body dominance - now both Sony and Pentax have white tele's and lots of mirrorless users mount Canon big whites with Metabones, so not such an accurate measure now.
-Lots of users of big whites on sidelines are not the owners of those big whites - get close enough and count how many of them have CPS, various rental houses, or news services stickers.
-Over the past several years Canon has released mark II versions of many whites leading to a flurry of upgrades.  Current crop seems good enough for 50 mp bodies, so no further need to upgrade.
-152,000 working pros with most lenses having a likely 10 year life expectancy can't possibly buy enough lenses to make a dent in the overall statistics of lenses sold.  It has to be all the Rebel kits with two zooms making up quantities posted.
-Overall improvements in zooms means fewer lenses are needed to cover wide focal length range.  18-135 is popular Rebel kit zoom- how many primes does that imply don't get sold?  Leads to reduction in overall quantities produced.  Current Costco kit for SL-2 is 18-55 plus 55-250 and 50 plastic fantastic - what else is that person ever likely to buy?  Oh, and those are all inexpensive lenses to produce.
 
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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #36 on: February 16, 2018, 10:18:19 AM »

neuroanatomist

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #37 on: February 16, 2018, 11:02:54 AM »
Claiming that my assertion is flat out wrong is a statement as well, and requires just as much evidence - of which you have provided not a trace so far. Again, childish insults and speculation about my orifices do not constitute evidence.

The key difference, one that apparently eludes you, is that you made the claim. Actually, you made multiple unsubstantiated claims:

1) "Several years ago many people didn't buy new cameras to achieve some specific photographic task, but as a status symbol (just read neuroanatomist's postings constantly writing about his white superteles), as something to be shown off."

How do you know anything about peoples' motivations? How do you know about my motivations.  It's also worth pointing out that you are the one who went down the path of insulting someone, right out of the gate. 

2) "They used to [buy big whites to brag], but this trend is going down - as shown by Lensvid's charts."

LensVid's charts show nothing of the sort. Period. Full stop.

Or it should have been...but you went on to cite several other 'sources', all of which are anecdotal, and some of which don't even support your claim.


The evidence I provided you with would well constitute empirical data...

What evidence?  You provided anecdotes. 

Your photo club?  In my photo club, five years ago there were about 20 members using 500/4 or longer lenses.  Today, there are >30 (just those with long+fast lenses, not counting those with the Tam/Sig 150-600 variable aperture zooms).  That increase is driven largely by newer/younger members, and more than countered several of the more senior members who stopped using the big lenses after developing arthritis (and some of those switched to mirrorless, for that reason).  But...you don't find me citing that as evidence that sales of big white lenses (or their black Nikon counterparts) are increasing, do you?  No.  Becuase that's an anecdote, not data...and I know the difference between them.

Forum threads?  The two most popular threads on these boards are the Show your Bird Portraits thread (>15K posts, ~4.7 million views) and the BIRD IN FLIGHT ONLY thread (~5K posts, ~1.5 million views).  A substantial fraction of posts on those threads are with big white lenses.  But...you don't find me citing that as evidence that big white lenses are maintaining their popularity or that people's main use for big white lenses is to take pictures with them, do you?  No.  Because that's an anecdote, not data...and I know the difference between them.


My observation was, that the crowd of gear worshipers has shrunk substantially during the last couple of years.

Oh, your observation. There were over 11 million ILCs shipped around the world last year...that's quite a crowd of buyers.  How many of those 11 million have you personally observed?  How many have you questioned about their motivations?  Are your observations of the 'crowd of gear worshipers' worldwide?  Across many countries?  One country?  A city?  Your photo club?  Or perhaps only in your own imagination?


I finally found some real numbers

I see.  You made a conclusion, then you went out and found some actual data, and decided those data support your conclusion.  They don't.

"1. Total number of interchangeable lenses sold dropped from 30.4 million in 2012 down to 21.7 million in 2015 and even further down to 19.2 million in 2016"

Well, the total number of ILC's shipped has dropped, and since most ILCs ship with a kit lens, obviously the total number of lenses has dropped.  In fact, the number of ILCs dropped by 8.5 million from 2012 to 2016, and based on Canon's approximate 1.4:1 ratio of lenses to bodies sold, the corresponding drop in lenses would be ~12 million, close enough to the actual 11.2 million unit drop in lenses that the drop in ILC shipments likely accounts for the vast majority of the drop in lens shipments.

"2. Average lens price dropped across the board between 2015 and 2016, despite the fact that newer cameras tend to ask for better and more expensive lenses to fully exploit their potential"

Why are you only looking at a single year's change? Over the 2012 - 2016 period, the average unit price has gone up ~30%.  Even for the one year you selected, the average lens price dropped across the board dropped by a whopping ¥1900, that's ~US$18.  Given that the average lens price in 2016 was US$370, it's clear that the 'big white lenses' are a meaningless contribution to that average.  If CIPA reported median prices, that would perhaps be slightly more meaningful.

"3. Peak price per unit was somewhere between 2014 and 2015, while higher economic growth in 2016/2017 should have resulted in more sales of more expensive lenses in 2016"

The unit prices for 2013 - 2016 were 38.3, 38.4, 40.9, and 39.0 (in thousands of ¥) – there's no 'peak' there, that's essentially flat. 

" The numbers shown for 35mm fixed focal and special purpose lenses completely dwarf the total number of any lens seen at any sport event. I sure hope for Canon, that they sell more white superteles than what you see at this year's Olympic games."

The numbers shown for 35mm fixed focal and special purpose lenses have an average unit price of less than $300, meaning big white lenses are even less of a contribution to that category that to ILC lenses as a whole.

None of the above has any significant relevance to the sales of big white lenses, and absolutely no relevance —none at all— to the motivation of people buying camera gear. 



To summarize: you made claims that you cannot substantiate, you have either no evidence or evidence that does not support your claims. In other words, you were talking out of your ass (I will be explicit, since apparently 'nether orifice' was too subtle a reference for you). 

I was wrong about one thing, though...I didn't think my opinion of your ability to understand and interpret information could fall any lower.  Pathetic is no longer adequate.  Wretchedly abominable might come closer. 
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Rudeofus

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #38 on: February 17, 2018, 08:50:59 AM »
In other words, you were talking out of your ass (I will be explicit, since apparently 'nether orifice' was too subtle a reference for you). 

I was wrong about one thing, though...I didn't think my opinion of your ability to understand and interpret information could fall any lower.  Pathetic is no longer adequate.  Wretchedly abominable might come closer.
Uh boy, that really hit me hard, did it not? Apparently your big brother taught you some new bad words, sadly these new cuss words still do not make you appear any more mature. Neither does your risible camera gear, if you can't even control your temper.

you have no facts, merely a personal view on the limited data presented to you.
I have brought up my facts, and drew some conclusions from them. We both see the numbers from CIPA, we see stagnating dSLR and lens sales, we see that average lens price rose sharply several years ago (while the economy hit rock bottom world wide), then flattened out (while the economy slowly go going) and now have begun to shrink (while the economy hit record levels).
Surely as an engineer used to looking at data, do you not think you are pushing things too far?
You may find the facts I brought up too weak as a foundation for my conclusions, or you may find my conclusions outright wrong and present some different conclusions. I personally think that improvement/display of status (you may call it ego) is a big (and frequently underestimated) motivation for people to buy and/or do stuff. I see way too many Porsche Cayennes and similar SUVs in dense urban places to believe, that customers are rational actors. The trend from "things" to "experiences" may well indicate, that a shaky video from a safari to Botswana gains more facebook likes and wows than a selfie with a Rolex watch or big camera gear.

Well, at least thanks for keeping our discussion civilized ...


neuroanatomist

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #39 on: February 17, 2018, 09:02:49 AM »
 ::)
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Talys

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #40 on: February 17, 2018, 01:27:18 PM »
::)

Facts are malleable.  You just have to live with people who are convinced that their facts are better.  Like, all those photos that prove beyond any doubt that Donald Me_Me_Me had the largest inauguration crowd ever in the history of the universe.

neuroanatomist

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #41 on: February 17, 2018, 04:01:07 PM »
Ahhhh, alternative facts.  I do accept that some people treat the truth that way, like Rudeofus and those who believe the earth is flat.  It's unfortunate, but that's life.
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Mikehit

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #42 on: February 18, 2018, 12:01:19 PM »
In other words, you were talking out of your ass (I will be explicit, since apparently 'nether orifice' was too subtle a reference for you). 

I was wrong about one thing, though...I didn't think my opinion of your ability to understand and interpret information could fall any lower.  Pathetic is no longer adequate.  Wretchedly abominable might come closer.
Uh boy, that really hit me hard, did it not? Apparently your big brother taught you some new bad words, sadly these new cuss words still do not make you appear any more mature. Neither does your risible camera gear, if you can't even control your temper.

you have no facts, merely a personal view on the limited data presented to you.
I have brought up my facts, and drew some conclusions from them. We both see the numbers from CIPA, we see stagnating dSLR and lens sales, we see that average lens price rose sharply several years ago (while the economy hit rock bottom world wide), then flattened out (while the economy slowly go going) and now have begun to shrink (while the economy hit record levels).
Surely as an engineer used to looking at data, do you not think you are pushing things too far?
You may find the facts I brought up too weak as a foundation for my conclusions, or you may find my conclusions outright wrong and present some different conclusions. I personally think that improvement/display of status (you may call it ego) is a big (and frequently underestimated) motivation for people to buy and/or do stuff. I see way too many Porsche Cayennes and similar SUVs in dense urban places to believe, that customers are rational actors. The trend from "things" to "experiences" may well indicate, that a shaky video from a safari to Botswana gains more facebook likes and wows than a selfie with a Rolex watch or big camera gear.

Well, at least thanks for keeping our discussion civilized ...

I note you have not responded to Neuro's analysis of the data you were looking at....

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Re: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic
« Reply #42 on: February 18, 2018, 12:01:19 PM »