June 20, 2018, 03:40:20 PM

Author Topic: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]  (Read 10362 times)

9VIII

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2018, 03:25:35 AM »
Ugh, Canon should have the 5DSMkII and 7DIII and 90D out next year (Edit: and 850D, but I did slightly mis-read the article as implying that next year will be slow too. We could still get two flagship bodies in one year next year).

Instead they’re letting Nikon eat their lunch for the moment.

Maybe they’re shifting some development to the new short flange mount? A 75MP Full Frame ILC would be a nice addition (and that density would mean they’d be making 30MP APS-C).
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 03:43:05 AM by 9VIII »

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2018, 03:25:35 AM »

9VIII

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #31 on: May 22, 2018, 03:32:20 AM »
Also:  why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?

(I would have expected that by now.)

- A

I was too busy today.

jolyonralph

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #32 on: May 22, 2018, 05:52:07 AM »
Also:  why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?

Because this is entirely expected?

Canon aren't going to launch a 7D III or a 5DSR II (both of which, I have been assured by people well connected to Canon, are at the prototypes-in-the-field stage and could easily be brought to market this year) at the same time as their new mirrorless camera.

So early 2019 for the 7DIII I guess.
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Tugela

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #33 on: May 22, 2018, 06:15:33 AM »
Also:  why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?

We've already been told there will be no 7DIII in 2018. I don't see this as significantly impacting the 7DIII or 5Ds II release schedule. In fact, I'm anxious to see what is in the 90D, because it sets the floor for the 7DIII.
 
...I see a lot of D500s in the bird hides here so the sales are probably moving along although Canon still leads.

...I had been waiting to see if the D850 or (especially) the D500 sales would spur Canon to shake up their release timing.  The 7D3 and 5DS are surely under more competitive pressure now than they were at launch.  But if Canon stays on it's 7D 5 year / 5DS 4-ish year cadence, it would imply that either those two Nikon rigs are not actually selling that well or (more likely) they are selling just fine but not stealing any Canon marketshare in the process.

Some things to remember. The D500 was delayed far longer than the 7DII and in fact, most thought Nikon has abandoned that market segment. That meant a lot of pent up demand among Nikon shooters and a big jump in specs from the previous model. But, despite what we read on internet forums, it didn't necessarily mean Canon users were switching to Nikon.

Anecdotal evidence like the brand of cameras one sees in bird hides is simply anecdotal evidence. And, it's not a zero sum game. More Nikons does not translate into fewer Canons.

Well, if Nikon owners are upgrading, and hence the apparently good sales of their latest model, then who is buying the 5D and 7D? Presumably not Canon users upgrading because those are old cameras and they probably allready have them if they are Canon fans. Plus there is the a7III which seems to be selling very well. Whose market is that eating into? Can't be Nikon, because those folks are allready buying the D8500.

Seems to me that Canon has to be under competitive pressure at this point. When you see the decline in DSLR numbers recently, most of that is probably due to falling Canon sales. You have to wonder how long they can stand that before it begins to bite.

There are however other reasons why things like a 5DV and 7DIII might not be coming soon, namely the development time and technological shortfalls.

Talys

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #34 on: May 22, 2018, 12:00:03 PM »
Canon really missed the boat by now having a 500 mm zoom.  If one is starting out would you want this lens or the Canon 100-400 mm zoom?

What little testing I've seen demonstrates the Canon is a solid mid-level L supertele while the Nikon is a more of a budget instrument.  It's difficult to compare across mounts/sensors, but a 100-400L II with a 1.4x looks on par (if not better) with the naked 200-500 on the long end -- and without a teleconverter in the mix I don't think it's very much of a contest

I will not deny the value of a 500 f/5.6 VR option for $1400, but I think you're comparing a Honda to a Mercedes here.  And as for 'dominance' in the field, Canon not putting out an affordable superzoom or accelerating the 7D3 implies the D500 and 200-500 5.6 are not stealing any Canon marketshare.

- A

I've played with the Nikon.  The problem with that lens is that it is not a satisfyingly sharp at 500mm. The niche it fills is people who don't want to send a lot, and want a first party lens -- because I can't see how it is better than the Sigma in any way other than it that.

ahsanford

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #35 on: May 22, 2018, 12:11:51 PM »
I've played with the Nikon.  The problem with that lens is that it is not a satisfyingly sharp at 500mm. The niche it fills is people who don't want to send a lot, and want a first party lens -- because I can't see how it is better than the Sigma in any way other than it that.

Yes.  First party AF confidence @ 500mm without a T/C = a compelling value proposition over trusting Sigma or Tamron routines.  I still do not know how they turn a profit on that lens other than pull-through of Nikon bodies.  It's shockingly inexpensive.

I just see it as a homerun for the budding birder/wildlifer and not for those who live in a blind shooting at 500mm all day.  But I defer to the birders -- I thankfully don't have that incurable condition.  :D

- A

ahsanford

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #36 on: May 22, 2018, 12:22:31 PM »
Also:  why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?
So early 2019 for the 7DIII I guess.

The glut of non-Rebel-level cameras coming will be a bit of a logjam next year:

90D:  June 2019
7D3:  Nov 2019
5DS2:  Dec 2019
1DX3:  Mid 2020
5D5:  Late 2020
6D3:  Mid/Late 2021

(M5/M6 refreshes:  No revision history to make a projection: could happen any time, but a 3y XXD schedule is as good a guess as any.)

Blue ones based on my prior estimates post, the others just rough estimates of how those lines time out.

But that list -- and particularly that potential logjam in the back half of next year -- gives us something to get excited about.  There is nothing big body-wise on the docket in Q4 of this year through a good chunk of next year.  That would be the large gap in a calendar we'd expect for something to get all the marketing spotlight, and that would be FF mirrorless.   8)

- A
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 12:25:04 PM by ahsanford »

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #36 on: May 22, 2018, 12:22:31 PM »

Talys

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #37 on: May 22, 2018, 12:27:36 PM »
Also:  why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?
So early 2019 for the 7DIII I guess.

The glut of non-Rebel-level cameras coming will be a bit of a logjam next year:

90D:  June 2019
7D3:  Nov 2019
5DS:  Dec 2019
1DX3:  Mid 2020
5D5:  Late 2020
6D3:  Mid/Late 2021

(M5/M6 refreshes:  No revision history to make a projection: could happen any time, but a 3y XXD schedule is as good a guess as any.)

Blue ones based on my prior estimates post, the others just rough estimates of how those lines time out.

But that list -- and particularly that potential logjam in the back half of next year -- gives us something to get excited about.  There is nothing big body-wise on the docket in Q4 of this year through a good chunk of next year.  That would be the large gap in a calendar we'd expect for something to get all the marketing spotlight, and that would be FF mirrorless.   8)

- A

It would make sense for Canon to spread those out a little, because ownership of these cameras are not mutually exclusive.  The 90D and 7D3 may be an either/or scenario, but I think there are plenty of potential 7D + 5D owners interested in both refreshes.

Personally, I think there will be a 5D consolidation.  Plus, 1DX3 will almost certainly be ready for prime time for the Tokyo 2020 summer Olympics.

ahsanford

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #38 on: May 22, 2018, 01:00:42 PM »
It would make sense for Canon to spread those out a little, because ownership of these cameras are not mutually exclusive. 

Agree 100%.  Those projections are when simply future dates might fall.  I fully expect Canon to throw a quarter delay here or there so that all of these don't hit at once -- that's a mess for giving each product an exclusive spotlight for at least a quarter.

Personally, I think there will be a 5D consolidation. 

Are you saying a future 5D supercamera is coming in the vein of the D850 / A7R3?  High MP *and* high fps?

I only see Canon following suit here if the D850 is stealing Canon business hand over fist, and we don't have any indication that is happening yet.  I think a yet-higher MP / 5 fps rig in the 5DS2/5DSR2 lets Canon continue to offer two pro FF bodies in the $3k neighborhood, which is something they very much want to keep doing.

- A

AlanF

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #39 on: May 22, 2018, 03:39:24 PM »
Canon really missed the boat by now having a 500 mm zoom.  If one is starting out would you want this lens or the Canon 100-400 mm zoom?

What little testing I've seen demonstrates the Canon is a solid mid-level L supertele while the Nikon is a more of a budget instrument.  It's difficult to compare across mounts/sensors, but a 100-400L II with a 1.4x looks on par (if not better) with the naked 200-500 on the long end -- and without a teleconverter in the mix I don't think it's very much of a contest

I will not deny the value of a 500 f/5.6 VR option for $1400, but I think you're comparing a Honda to a Mercedes here.  And as for 'dominance' in the field, Canon not putting out an affordable superzoom or accelerating the 7D3 implies the D500 and 200-500 5.6 are not stealing any Canon marketshare.

- A

I've played with the Nikon.  The problem with that lens is that it is not a satisfyingly sharp at 500mm. The niche it fills is people who don't want to send a lot, and want a first party lens -- because I can't see how it is better than the Sigma in any way other than it that.

I woudn't want that lens either. It's too heavy and has real competition from the 150-600s. The interesting lens is the Nikkor 300mm f/4 PF, which is very sharp and light and goes well with the 1.4xTC. Currently, you would have to rip the 400mm DO II out of my dead hands, and I wish Canon would update its smaller and slower primes.
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Talys

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #40 on: May 22, 2018, 04:43:57 PM »
Personally, I think there will be a 5D consolidation. 

Are you saying a future 5D supercamera is coming in the vein of the D850 / A7R3?  High MP *and* high fps?

I only see Canon following suit here if the D850 is stealing Canon business hand over fist, and we don't have any indication that is happening yet.  I think a yet-higher MP / 5 fps rig in the 5DS2/5DSR2 lets Canon continue to offer two pro FF bodies in the $3k neighborhood, which is something they very much want to keep doing.

- A

Well, it's entirely possible that they keep two 5D models (down from three), but my guess is that if they did that, it would be more along the Sony direction of A7/A7R, where they are very similar except for megapixels.

I think that there will almost certainly be a 5D model that has a megapixel/fps mix that is competitive with D850, because Canon would be loathe to release a new flagship enthusiast DSLR in 2019 that isn't competitive in headline stats with the 2017 D850. 

The way I see it:

Scenario A) The simplest route would be to super 5DSR.  Everyone would love a 5DSR with 50 megapixel dual pixel, Compressed CR3, 9 fps, and a little better high ISO performance.

Then, the question becomes, do they make another model that sits above the 6D2, or just bump the 6D series to fill that gap?

Scenario B) The alternate route would be to drop a buffed up 5D4, with more megapixels and a faster drive speed that makes it essentially a Canon D850.   

The 5DSR would be a higher megapixel, slower drive version of this, like you suggest.  I'm just not sure how popular 50-60 megapixels would be compared to 42-ish, because that's a much smaller difference than 50 vs. 30 megapixels.

Scenario C) They could, of course, keep 5D5 a 30 megapixel camera.  But I really, really doubt that, because more megapixels sells new bodies.

I see the most likely as (A), because it would make for the splashiest launch before lucrative Tokyo 2020 sales.


I've played with the Nikon.  The problem with that lens is that it is not a satisfyingly sharp at 500mm. The niche it fills is people who don't want to send a lot, and want a first party lens -- because I can't see how it is better than the Sigma in any way other than it that.

I woudn't want that lens either. It's too heavy and has real competition from the 150-600s. The interesting lens is the Nikkor 300mm f/4 PF, which is very sharp and light and goes well with the 1.4xTC. Currently, you would have to rip the 400mm DO II out of my dead hands, and I wish Canon would update its smaller and slower primes.

Exactly.  If Canon wanted a me-too consumer long reach zoom, I'd much rather see something competitive in performance with the 150-600s, which set a higher bar.

It would be great to see Canon update their smaller/slower/less expensive primes!
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 04:50:08 PM by Talys »

ahsanford

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #41 on: May 22, 2018, 05:47:40 PM »
I think that there will almost certainly be a 5D model that has a megapixel/fps mix that is competitive with D850, because Canon would be loathe to release a new flagship enthusiast DSLR in 2019 that isn't competitive in headline stats with the 2017 D850. 

"Flagship enthusiast" -- that's not a thing.   ;)

But to your point -- the 5D3 never matched the D800/D800E/D810 for MP or dynamic range and that never stopped it from selling like gangbusters.  As Canon has showed time and time again, Canon doesn't have to match anyone's specs -- in fact, doing so leads to a higher production cost and reduces their margins unnecessarily.  Consider:  they put sensor architecture circa 2010 into a 6D2 and it's selling just fine without 4K, without IBIS, without BSI illumination, without without without.   Enthusiasts were pissed, but to Canon, the fact that the 6D2 is selling well without having to give that market the better sensor tech is a win:  Canon enjoys higher margins on the 6D2 than if they put a pricier sensor in there and the 5D4 is now thought of as being unassailably better (other than flipscreen), which in turn protects its price.

The way I see it:

Scenario A) The simplest route would be to super 5DSR.  Everyone would love a 5DSR with 50 megapixel dual pixel, Compressed CR3, 9 fps, and a little better high ISO performance.

Then, the question becomes, do they make another model that sits above the 6D2, or just bump the 6D series to fill that gap?

No new product required.  If they did this, the 5D4 would just (with age) shift downmarket and Canon would be good (6D2) / better (5D4) / best (5DS2) portftolio just like Nikon.  I don't think Canon woud get $4k for that supercamera, so they'd swoop in around $3799 and the 5D4's price would have to drop under $3k...  Kind of like what happened when the original 5DS was announced.

And I think a supercamera (which very well may happen!) would create a prestige perspective problem.  5DS and 5D3/4 lived at similar levels of prestige/feature set/price with the notion that one delivered detail and the other was the all-battlefield 'do everything' option.  A supercamera obsoletes those distinctions and devalues the other product line faster than if they stuck to their guns and just made a 5DS sequel with even more data but limited fps, IMHO.

- A

RGF

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #42 on: May 22, 2018, 09:52:19 PM »
i suspect that we will first see 1Dx Mark III before the 7D M3 emerges. 

Will there be a 1Dx M3 this year?  Rumors are that the Nikon D6 is due this year so possibly. The two bodies tend to appear at similar times.

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #42 on: May 22, 2018, 09:52:19 PM »

privatebydesign

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #43 on: May 22, 2018, 10:22:42 PM »
i suspect that we will first see 1Dx Mark III before the 7D M3 emerges. 

Will there be a 1Dx M3 this year?  Rumors are that the Nikon D6 is due this year so possibly. The two bodies tend to appear at similar times.

No chance. The 1DX MkIII will be out in 2020 in time for the Tokyo Olympics and not before.
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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #44 on: May 22, 2018, 10:50:42 PM »
i suspect that we will first see 1Dx Mark III before the 7D M3 emerges. 

Will there be a 1Dx M3 this year?  Rumors are that the Nikon D6 is due this year so possibly. The two bodies tend to appear at similar times.

No chance. The 1DX MkIII will be out in 2020 in time for the Tokyo Olympics and not before.

I can't imagine why anyone would think the 1Dx III would be out before 2020.

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Re: Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]
« Reply #44 on: May 22, 2018, 10:50:42 PM »