Camera Body Breakdown [CR1]

[macfly]

I know you guys will hate me saying this, but for the 7th job in a row I'm renting the Nikon D3s because it is just so much nicer on skin, especially at low light, than my old 1Ds Mklll.  I also am blown away by how much crisper their 24-70 zoom is. I thought they'd never equal Canon again, but right now they really have stolen a march on Canon.

If Canon don't get their act together soon, and at least let us know when the 1Ds MklV is coming I'm jumping ship, and going back to Nikon altogether, (after exactly 20 years!) because a year of renting just isn't worth doing waiting and hoping Canon will introduce a camera that may never appear!

[KyleSTL]

So Canon will allow Nikon to completely dominate the entry level spot with the D3100 .

The 550D is the #1 selling camera - and it's more expensive than the D3100.
So, the D3100 is not dominating anything.

I agree that the T2i (550D) is a great camera and it sells extremely well, but if Canon could release a camera at the Rebel XS (1000D) pricepoint that isn't completely anemic and obsolete they would steal even more sales away from Nikon (mostly the D3100 and the remaining stock of D3000s).  A 12MP XS-replacement with 720p and live view with 3200 ISO max would be a very compelling product, although that would mean it would have to share the Digic 4 processor of the 500D and 550D and not the Digic III of the 450D/1000D (making it more expensive to produce).

[kubelik]

I know you guys will hate me saying this, but for the 7th job in a row I'm renting the Nikon D3s because it is just so much nicer on skin, especially at low light, than my old 1Ds Mklll.  I also am blown away by how much crisper their 24-70 zoom is. I thought they'd never equal Canon again, but right now they really have stolen a march on Canon.

If Canon don't get their act together soon, and at least let us know when the 1Ds MklV is coming I'm jumping ship, and going back to Nikon altogether, (after exactly 20 years!) because a year of renting just isn't worth doing waiting and hoping Canon will introduce a camera that may never appear!

mac, I don't think anyone can fault you with wanting to go back to nikon, especially given that you're actually making a living off of your equipment.  I'm intrigued that you see such a huge difference between the canon and nikon systems in how they render skin tone, but I've heard it from others ... guess something I'm not seeing in the files.

really great work!  the shot of mila kunis you have on your page really is, as you said, stunning (although I know you were talking about the actress rather than the photo)

[Sinsear]

5D Mark III
Nothing of note.  I do expect it to arrive in 2011 in some form.

I'm looking forward to ordering the 5DIII in 2011 - I'm sure I'll be able to order it along with the 24-70mm f/2.8L IS zoom lens, a herd of unicorns, a perpetual motion machine, and many other wonderful, mythical products...

CR1 indeed...   

What's so incredible about a 5d3 in 2011? It would follow the previous lifespan cycle established by the 5d and 5d2. Unless you know something that I don't, I personally anticipate the 5d3 to come out in 2011 as well.

[Bob Howland]

It doesn't look like Canon is planning on introducing anything to compete with the Nikon D3s at low light levels. I just took some pictures of Yuletide reenactors at a local historical village/museum, in a room lit with 3 candles, that's it, 3 frigging candles. A typical exposure was 1/15 sec and f/1.4 at ISO3200. Image quality as good as the D3s at ISO51200 would get me to 1/60 sec and f/2.8 and allow me to use my 24-70 and 17-35 zoom lenses.

Is anybody at Canon listening?

[macfly]

Thanks kubelik, the Mila pix were all with the EOS, none of the Nikon work is published yet, so I can't put it up yet, but the difference really is startling. The Nikon genuinely is blowing my mind and opening creative possibilities I never thought I'd ever see in terms of image capture and quality in low light. When I rent it for the shoot on Saturday I'll make sure to do some side by sides to show you guys. I'll keep it to the 135mm f2 lenses as they are both excellent, and just do 800/1600/2400/5000 ISO

[Stuart]

Its a CR1!
a 600D before a 7dMk2 - only if they reuse the 18M sensor a 4th time. if so maybe they want to add the 60 flip screen and movie mode AF to deal with panasonic.

Or If the 600D has say a 22MP sensor with good iSo then i'd be interested (in the iSo) but the only reason i'd expected this to be before the 7d is that a digic 5 processor was unavailable in the near time frame.

Maybe they want to catch up on the ISO front and go down to 16Mpixels for smaller files too - but they have not done thi before.
Anyway its CR1 speculation.

[kubelik]

Thanks kubelik, the Mila pix were all with the EOS, none of the Nikon work is published yet, so I can't put it up yet, but the difference really is startling. The Nikon genuinely is blowing my mind and opening creative possibilities I never thought I'd ever see in terms of image capture and quality in low light. When I rent it for the shoot on Saturday I'll make sure to do some side by sides to show you guys. I'll keep it to the 135mm f2 lenses as they are both excellent, and just do 800/1600/2400/5000 ISO

very much looking forward to seeing that

[KyleSTL]

The only precedent Canon has for stepping down in resolution is the Powershot G10 -> G11 (14.7MP vs. 10MP).  As far as lifecycle goes, the 5D Mark II has another 300-some days to match the life of the original 5D.  But, there is the caveat that the 5D was released 11 months after 1Ds Mark II and 5D Mark II was released 13 months after 1Ds Mark III.  I think we're in for a changing of lifecycles with this next batch of cameras.  Check out this thread for the analysis on previous lifecycles: http://www.canonrumors.com/forum/index.php/topic,333.msg4550.html#msg4550
and
http://www.canonrumors.com/forum/index.php/topic,333.msg4869.html#msg4869

BTW, macfly, I checked out your website.  Some awesome celebs you've shot.  Heidi Klum, Charlize Theron, Ed Norton.  Jealous....  Awesome work.

[kubelik]

a question that's been bouncing around in my mind is, are we going to get to some critical point where traditional digital update cycles have a paradigm shift and move into longer replacement timelines, maybe 4-5 years instead of 2-3?

in the first decade of digital camera technology, we saw huge jumps in capability every two years, which warranted tight refresh cycles to stay ahead of the competition.  things appear to be leveling out for all the major manufacturers right now, however -- I know none of the cameras on market can be described as "perfect" but there definitely seems to be diminishing returns with every cycle of updates.

more AF points, more FPS, more or less pixels, weathersealing, viewfinders ... all of these sort of have a max-out point and we seem to be getting pretty close to it.

[CR Backup Admin]

a question that's been bouncing around in my mind is, are we going to get to some critical point where traditional digital update cycles have a paradigm shift and move into longer replacement timelines, maybe 4-5 years instead of 2-3?

in the first decade of digital camera technology, we saw huge jumps in capability every two years, which warranted tight refresh cycles to stay ahead of the competition.  things appear to be leveling out for all the major manufacturers right now, however -- I know none of the cameras on market can be described as "perfect" but there definitely seems to be diminishing returns with every cycle of updates.

more AF points, more FPS, more or less pixels, weathersealing, viewfinders ... all of these sort of have a max-out point and we seem to be getting pretty close to it.

I'm sure that manufacturers would like this, however, there is always the competition to deal with.  If the competition adds a new model with more bells and whistles, then you have to match or lose sales.  Right now, Nikon has not uped the ante, so Canon is free to take their time.  Introduction of a new model can be a very expensive thing, particularly if it involves a new sensor.

[Stuart]

With the Bells and whistles being differentatiors, the market is open for a module based approach where you buy a base level body then add modules in hardware or software as you need them.

Sensors are the main differentatiors and exceed the limits of much of the glass used. So expect better dynamic range, ISO performance, global shutter, etc to keep driving sensor performance.

[macfly]

scalesusa, you say that "Right now, Nikon has not uped the ante"

This can only mean you are not working with these two side by side, Nikon has left the EOS 1Ds MkIII for dead with the D3s. I can promise you Nikon are blowing Canon away right now. The quality, the low light ability, the incredible ability to run tethered shooting bursts of 30+ frames non stop with Capture One, and the amazingly sharp glass.

The difference is as great as the one Canon made with the original EOS 1 which got me, and everyone else, to sell my slow and awkward F4 and make the switch to Canon.

The appaling mess of the G12, which I hate, after the G10, which i loved, has really put me on alert that Canon may well have lost the plot, and not be listening to people who work with the things everyday.

[Sinsear]

Introduction of a new model can be a very expensive thing, particularly if it involves a new sensor.

That's clearly not a problem for a big company like Canon. Just look at Intel, they spend billions and billions to upgrade their manufacturing processes when switching to a new architecture for their chips.

[Sinsear]

a question that's been bouncing around in my mind is, are we going to get to some critical point where traditional digital update cycles have a paradigm shift and move into longer replacement timelines, maybe 4-5 years instead of 2-3?

in the first decade of digital camera technology, we saw huge jumps in capability every two years, which warranted tight refresh cycles to stay ahead of the competition.  things appear to be leveling out for all the major manufacturers right now, however -- I know none of the cameras on market can be described as "perfect" but there definitely seems to be diminishing returns with every cycle of updates.

more AF points, more FPS, more or less pixels, weathersealing, viewfinders ... all of these sort of have a max-out point and we seem to be getting pretty close to it.

The only thing I can think of that isn't hitting a "max-out point" is the processor and storage medium. Someday, I want to be able to burst 120fps continuous for an indefinite amount of time.