If the 5D3 can't maintain the 5D2's enormous sales advantage among videographers, I'll have my new camera about as soon as I can afford it.
Very good analysis overall.
I also think that the 5DIII price will erode because of videographers.
In addition to Canon omitting some key video specs from the 5DIII ('clean' HDMI, 60fps 1080p), there are strong indications that Sony will be announcing their A99 model this fall - an SLT camera with 24mp FF sensor.
Sony's A900 and A850 were not very popular for still photography.
However, if Sony plays their cars well, the A99 might become very popular with videographers.
If the A99 has 'clean' HDMI, 60fps 1080p, and is priced around the $2000 mark, it can easily become the video DSLR of choice for many of those who are now buying the 5DII and (potentially) the 5DIII.
The possibility that a large group of buyers might migrate to the competition will surely prompt Canon to lower the 5DIII price.
My prediction is that the 5DIII price will drop to $2600-2400 next summer and stay at that level for a while.