When/How to sell your 5D Mark II?

[editreject]

I went the eBay route and I listed it both with an auction and buy it now option.  Someone bought it with the buy it now option about an hour after I had it listed.  I was pleasantly surprised.  I wound up losing $50 based on what I paid for it new which was less than if I had rented it during that time.

I decided to sell it right away to beat the expected surplus of used Mark IIs out there (there was a noticeable increase right after the Mark III announcement) and the expected price drop of a new Mark II. 

[Maui5150]

Sell Recommendation: Sell your II June/July/Aug of this year. 

I would disagree with that Sell Recommendation.  If the numbers are somewhat accurate in the forecast, than May or July of 2013 is the best time to sell. 

While you may get between 1900 and 2000 May/Jun/July this year, the MK III will still be $3500 or there abouts.

May or July of 2013 looks to have the sell price back in the 1700/1800 range, and for $200 lost, I bet the price of the 5D MK III has a bigger drop than $200 from May 2012 to May 2013. 

In fact, I can imagine that this Holiday season between rebates and sales, it will be possible to get a 5D MK III for right around $3K or maybe just below... So if you can float it... Buy the 5D MK III before Christmas this year, keep the 5D MK II as a back up for a few months and then sell late spring

[Cosk]

While you may get between 1900 and 2000 May/Jun/July this year, the MK III will still be $3500 or there abouts.

Thanks... I double-checked the model and caught an error.  I entered $1850 as the 'March' Ebay price, intending 'pre-announcement price'... the model (correctly) assumed I meant $1850 as the post-announcement price. 

I just updated my original post with "Version 1.1".

But you're still right... waiting a year is a great time to sell.

Here's a graph of Predicted 5DII prices, based on the updated forecasting model:

[marekjoz]

While you may get between 1900 and 2000 May/Jun/July this year, the MK III will still be $3500 or there abouts.

Thanks... I double-checked the model and caught an error.  I entered $1850 as the 'March' Ebay price, intending 'pre-announcement price'... the model (correctly) assumed I meant $1850 as the post-announcement price. 

I just updated my original post with "Version 1.1".

But you're still right... waiting a year is a great time to sell.

Here's a graph of Predicted 5DII prices, based on the updated forecasting model:

Great. There is one different cicrumstance at this case: 5d2 is still in offer and we don't know how long.
And the other thing - if this graph will be popular in Internet, it will disturb it's contents itself, sth like Heisenberg uncertainty principle - if you follow the rules provided by the graph, then it will not have the proper values anymore

But +1 anyway. Another one when predictions will be correct.

[unfocused]

All this charting is interesting, but I wonder if there are factors that aren't being taken into consideration.

Since Canon USA has already dropped their price for the refurbished 5D II to $1,759, I have a hard time seeing how the ceiling for a used (no warranty) sale between two private parties can go above that. I would think that realistically, people ought to figure on at least a $100 discount from the refurbished price.

But, then again, I am always amazed at the prices people pay on eBay for used equipment. There are apparently a lot of people out there who are poorly informed consumers who don't bother to, or don't know how to, compare prices. Or maybe, it's just a different perspective, but I always feel that the value of a warranty (whether new or refurbished) should be factored in when comparing a sale from a known vendor to a private-party sale.

Given the current market prices, if I were in the market for a 5D II is would not go above $1,600 for a used model. But that's just me.