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Author Topic: The writing on the wall  (Read 23918 times)

Arkarch

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2012, 04:31:45 PM »
Sony is a very large corporation; but the sensor group is only a small piece of the overall picture.  They only get their share of the resources.  And certainly there is a Profit/Loss the Sony Director has to account for when that group looks for budget every year.

And what is Sony's agenda?  They tend to be a consumer company.  Does it make sense for them to be putting huge resources in pro-level sensors?  Maybe in some ways; or they benefit somewhat from the television/broadcasting/digital film group - I dont know how their internal structure is organized.

Does Sony and Nikon have the same agenda?  What happens if Sony grows disinterested in pro-level sensors?   What if the 36 mp sensor was Sony's decision based on consumer-high-mp goals and did that influence Nikon's design?

Canon has a benefit here.  While consumer is huge, they remain dedicated to pro-level technology.

Just questions.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2012, 04:40:36 PM by Arkarch »
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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2012, 04:31:45 PM »

Canon-F1

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2012, 04:35:01 PM »
right sony is making nikon sensors... and sony is making dslr cameras too... so how can that be good for nikon?

in the end they are competitors and nikon is dependent.

and canon is creating a huge amount of patents year after year... so you worrys are needless.

Meh

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2012, 04:35:46 PM »
I respectfully disagree with the OP.   Contrast-detect AF is not yet good enough to replace phase-detect AF and on that basis, and until there is a significant advancement, we are not approaching the end of the DSLR.   Canon is sufficiently large to conduct world-class sensor R&D and their market share is large enough to not need to partner with Sony.  A more important question is why does Sony want to partner with Nikon... most likely answer is because their market share and volume in DSLRs is too low to justify the investment and despite their size they are struggling in many areas... I believe they admitted a while back they are losing money on every TV sold, they are not doing very well in computers, they are small in DSLR cameras and don't have the lenses, they are not what they once were in consumer music devices (i.e. walkman/mp3 players), their margins are small on other consumer electronics.  Sony does well in consumer P&S, camcorders, cinema cams, and Sony Music does well I believe.

The writing on the wall is that Canon continues to be the dominant high-end camera producer, has the size and patience to see what will happen with mirrorless, and doesn't have to jump on to new trends too earlier.  Contrary to certain business wisdom... being first to market with a new product is not usually a recipe for success unless a barrier to entry and/or serious market share can be developed before competitors can rise up.  So Canon can be comfortable waiting to see how the market plays out for mirrorless or other new trends and win by being late but getting it right.  Look at Noink (love it Brian!) and their V1/J1 how is that doing?  Bleh.

Flipping mirrors won't go away anytime soon.  Sony resurrected the SLT concept to be different but it's no utopia... if one wants the best low-light camera for example... well, the SLT system loses almost a stop of light during image capture and the extra glass isn't helping image quality.

Canon-F1

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2012, 04:37:16 PM »
I respectfully disagree with the OP.   Contrast-detect AF is not yet good enough to replace phase-detect AF and on that basis, and until there is a significant advancement, we are not approaching the end of the DSLR. 

well sensor based phase AF could replace the current phase AF in a few years.

Warninglabel

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2012, 04:41:01 PM »
You don't have to say "Mirrored DSLR", The "R" in DSLR covers that. Also, a mirror-less camera is NOT a DSLR. I believe it is an electronic viewfinder interchangeable lens camera.

You are right I just got to excited it like I always call a pop a Coke

I'm not sure Canon is behind anyone. When I watch a sporting event, I see a TON of white lenses all over the place. I don't think there will be many Sony Nex 7 cameras covering the Olympics either.

Correct!! I'm not saying canon is, but if canon would have made these camera 30% better then the competition they would have and could have I just saying they have to be working on something else.
I don't have figures to back this up, but I do believe Canon is the market leader, and has been for quite some time.

There is a place for the mirror-less cameras. I'm sure they will take over the consumer market in the future. But I don't the think the focusing speed or accuracy is even close for it to go pro.

I never said anything about Sony Nex-7 kicking Canon butt, they're on to something, no moving parts and just a sensor to update, should be pretty fast techno.
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kdsand

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2012, 04:45:05 PM »
Blasphemy!!!

How on earth have you not been smitten to death yet is beyond me! :o
Lol!
I don't know the time frame but yes the mirror is destined to go. There is no doubt the Nikon Sony combination is a looming and ever present threat.   

Canon's development of sensor, AF system, processor and glass is of maximum priority as I see it. If these stay relevant they can be implemented in numerous ways.

 There are even contact lenses with digital overlay. Google was supposed to release like this month bluetooth glasses with l e d display superimposed. 8)

 And while we're at it what the hell is that pancake lens 4? Hmmm?
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Warninglabel

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2012, 04:46:32 PM »
Ok folks, when will the next 5D/1Dx come out? Maybe in 3 years, many more, are you all saying that the technology is that slow? the cameras that just got release are here to stay for a while.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2012, 04:49:18 PM by Warninglabel »
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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2012, 04:46:32 PM »

Meh

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2012, 04:48:33 PM »
I respectfully disagree with the OP.   Contrast-detect AF is not yet good enough to replace phase-detect AF and on that basis, and until there is a significant advancement, we are not approaching the end of the DSLR. 

well sensor based phase AF could replace the current phase AF in a few years.

Possibly.  I think it was Fuji (?) that had a decent crack at it a while back but even they admitted it had some drawbacks one of which being it had to mask off half of the pixels that were used for the AF in order to ascertain which side of the lens the ray-bundle is coming from.  It's a relatively small number of pixels but it does technically affect IQ and on the highest-end cameras maybe we care.  The sensor must also get hotter since it's always exposed to the light which could introduce more noise but I don't recall that being discussed.   But yeah, that could be a way forward towards ditching the flipping mirrors.

Canon-F1

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2012, 04:48:59 PM »
Ok folks, when will the next 5D/1Dx come out? Maybe in 3 years, many more, are you all saying that the technology is that slow? the cameras that just got release are here to stay for a while.

imo sensor design is slowing down.
today they are doing finetuning.

microlenses, faster read speed all fine, but how much does quantum efficiency increase?
as r.n clark wrote not much

Quote
Complications regarding the perceived performance of pixels, pixel size and sensor size in digital cameras over the last decade (about 2000 to 2009) is a significant refinement in technology. While the quantum efficiency of sensors in digital cameras has not really changed much, other factors that have improved include: fill factor (the fraction of a pixel that is sensitive to light), higher transmission of the filters over the sensor, better micro lenses, lower read noise, and lower fixed pattern noise.

you can´t expect huge jumps in sensor design today... well you can but that would be unrealistic.
making the sensitiv area of the sensor bigger (backlight, exmor) was a nice step but we will hit a wall sooner or later.


« Last Edit: March 08, 2012, 04:52:22 PM by Canon-F1 »

Meh

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2012, 04:51:11 PM »

you can´t expect huge jumps in sensor design today... well you can but that would be unrealistic.
making the sensitiv area of the sensor bigger (backlight, exmor) was a nice step but we hit a wall sooner or later.

Absolutely correct.

Meh

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #25 on: March 08, 2012, 04:53:09 PM »
Ok folks, when will the next 5D/1Dx come out? Maybe in 3 years, many more, are you all saying that the technology is that slow? the cameras that just got release are here to stay for a while.

Sorry, which side of this discussion are you on?  You can be on as many sides as you want, I'm just confused if you're saying DSLRs are here to stay or done after this year?

Warninglabel

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #26 on: March 08, 2012, 04:57:37 PM »
Ok folks, when will the next 5D/1Dx come out? Maybe in 3 years, many more, are you all saying that the technology is that slow? the cameras that just got release are here to stay for a while.

Sorry, which side of this discussion are you on?  You can be on as many sides as you want, I'm just confused if you're saying DSLRs are here to stay or done after this year?

What I mean and will correct on my main post is no more new high end models other then maybe a few DSRLs like the rebel yearly event. 
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moreorless

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2012, 04:58:22 PM »
Don't get me wrong I don't think they are completely behind Nikon or Sony I just don't see the advancement of 4 years in the 5D mark III and the AF was a joint investment in the 1Dx and 5D. I see a great future of possibilities with canon, I have the 5D Mark III on preorder and will love it (Coming from the 7d) I'm just saying technology is a fast pace and they had to being doing something else in the last 4 years for sure.

I'd say part of the issue here is that the tech that has been advancing in DSLR's for the last 15 years or so is starting to slow down, when you reach that stage each improvement in performance is going to come at a higher and higher price. The D4 for example really isnt that much of a leap from the D3s and the D800 clearly sacrifes other areas for its high resolution.

My feeling with mirrorless is that it isnt so much replacing DSLR's as it is creating a new market and I suspect Canon will try to tap into that rather than looking to go head to head with their own product. To some extent I do think mirrorless sales are something of a fad aswell, there is obviously a future to it but right now I think alot of buyers arent looking clearly at the benefits/disadvanatges but rather going with the "cool new tech".

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2012, 04:58:22 PM »

unkbob

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2012, 05:38:21 PM »
Sony is a much larger company than Canon.

Um, no. In terms of company value, Canon is 3 x as big as Sony and still twice as big as Sony + Nikon combined. Canon also has more employees than Sony, and Sony's camera department is just one part of its sprawling portfolio whereas it is the cornerstone of Canon's. And Canon currently makes a profit, Sony doesn't. Sony is not some huge corporation with infinite resources, they're struggling and focused firmly on consumer-orientated products, which is why they have - at least for now - abandoned the pro camera market.

Astro

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #29 on: March 08, 2012, 05:46:32 PM »
Um, no. In terms of company value, Canon is 3 x as big as Sony and still twice as big as Sony + Nikon combined. Canon also has more employees than Sony

a few numbers form wikipedia:

sony = 168,200 employees
canon = 199,820 employees

sony net income = US $ -2.96 billion (2011)
canon net income = US $ 3.2 billion (2011) 

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Re: The writing on the wall
« Reply #29 on: March 08, 2012, 05:46:32 PM »