APS-C Roadmap for 2012: A Prediction

[neuroanatomist]

y'all are seeing a new APS-C sensor, in the next 12 months, coming on the heals of the newly introduced 18MP hybrid AF sensor?  historical precident suggests that the present t4i sensor will make its way through the rest of the 1.6x ranks.

I expect a higher MP sensor for the 7DII, incorporating the hybrid PDAF functionality.  Note there is a different sensor in the T3/1100D, so Canon is perfectly willing to have multiple APS-C sensors across the lines.

[dlleno]

y'all are seeing a new APS-C sensor, in the next 12 months, coming on the heals of the newly introduced 18MP hybrid AF sensor?  historical precident suggests that the present t4i sensor will make its way through the rest of the 1.6x ranks.

I expect a higher MP sensor for the 7DII, incorporating the hybrid PDAF functionality.  Note there is a different sensor in the T3/1100D, so Canon is perfectly willing to have multiple APS-C sensors across the lines.

true, but Canon didn't lead off with that sensor in the 1100D -- the 12MP sensor first appeared in the 450 and then migrated it to the 1100D as the lowest entry point, as the 15 and 18MP sensors emerged.   7D excepted, Canon historically has historically "led" with sensors in the xxxD rebel and propgated them to the xxD and xxxxD later.  But that was before 7D...

There is no historical precident for the 7D, unless one considers that it receives the latest and best APS-C sensor,  so you may be right and I hope you are in which case 70D would receive the 18MP first, then 7D would follow at 22.   I do hope 7D2 sensor is something special.   I only worry that if all they do is a MP bump from hybrid AF 18  to hybrid AF 22 (like they did from 15 to 18) then we will really have no ISO improvement at all. 

maybe there is still hope for an APS-H body, with some new positive integer on the front,  at 22MP...

[neuroanatomist]

true, but Canon didn't lead off with that sensor in the 1100D -- the 12MP sensor first appeared in the 450 and then migrated it to the 1100D as the lowest entry point, as the 15 and 18MP sensors emerged.   7D excepted, Canon historically has historically "led" with sensors in the xxxD rebel and propgated them to the xxD and xxxxD later.  But that was before 7D...

<puts on historian hat>

The 1100D sensor has a greater number of total pixels, although the number of effective pixels is the same as the 450D.  That suggests a new sensor, although it's not certain.

• The penultimate 18 MP sensor (before the T4i/650D) debuted in the 7D, then was re-used in the T2i/550D, then the 60D, then the T3i/600D.
• The previous 15 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the 50D, then was re-used in the T1i/500D. 
  
• The previous 12 MP APS-C sensor did debut in the XSi/450D, but wasn't re-used anywhere (except, possibly in the T3/1100D).
  
• The previous 10 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the XTi/400D, and was re-used in the 40D then the XS/1000D
• The previous 8 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the 20D, then was re-used in the XT/350D and 30D
• The previous 6 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the 10D, then was re-used in the Digital Rebel/300D.

So...there's only one example of Canon having "led" with sensors in the xxxD rebel and propgating them to the xxD - the 10 MP sensor, but three examples of a sensor debut in the xxD line (prior to the 7D release).

<removes historian hat>

[unfocused]

Maybe I'm using too narrow of a definition of a "new" sensor, but I haven't seen any indication that the T4i sensor makes any improvement in sensitivity, dynamic range, noise or resolution. It sounds like the only change to the sensor is to allow for autofocus in live view and movie mode.

I'm not saying that's insignificant. I'm just suggesting that when we talk about sensor improvements, that's not usually what people on this forum are thinking about.  This is a sensor change in order to allow another technology (autofocus) to work better. But, is there any indication that Canon has actually improved the performance of the sensor itself? Am I missing something here?

[neuroanatomist]

Maybe I'm using too narrow of a definition of a "new" sensor, but I haven't seen any indication that the T4i sensor makes any improvement in sensitivity, dynamic range, noise or resolution. It sounds like the only change to the sensor is to allow for autofocus in live view and movie mode.

I'm not saying that's insignificant. I'm just suggesting that when we talk about sensor improvements, that's not usually what people on this forum are thinking about.  This is a sensor change in order to allow another technology (autofocus) to work better. But, is there any indication that Canon has actually improved the performance of the sensor itself? Am I missing something here?

This has been my exact point - yes, technically it's 'new' but have there been in improvements that actually affect the IQ of the sensor?

[dlleno]

true, but Canon didn't lead off with that sensor in the 1100D -- the 12MP sensor first appeared in the 450 and then migrated it to the 1100D as the lowest entry point, as the 15 and 18MP sensors emerged.   7D excepted, Canon historically has historically "led" with sensors in the xxxD rebel and propgated them to the xxD and xxxxD later.  But that was before 7D...

<puts on historian hat>

The 1100D sensor has a greater number of total pixels, although the number of effective pixels is the same as the 450D.  That suggests a new sensor, although it's not certain.

• The penultimate 18 MP sensor (before the T4i/650D) debuted in the 7D, then was re-used in the T2i/550D, then the 60D, then the T3i/600D.
• The previous 15 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the 50D, then was re-used in the T1i/500D. 
  
• The previous 12 MP APS-C sensor did debut in the XSi/450D, but wasn't re-used anywhere (except, possibly in the T3/1100D).
  
• The previous 10 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the XTi/400D, and was re-used in the 40D then the XS/1000D
• The previous 8 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the 20D, then was re-used in the XT/350D and 30D
• The previous 6 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the 10D, then was re-used in the Digital Rebel/300D.

So...there's only one example of Canon having "led" with sensors in the xxxD rebel and propgating them to the xxD - the 10 MP sensor, but three examples of a sensor debut in the xxD line (prior to the 7D release).

<removes historian hat>

you're so right I should have studied that more carefully.  Even in the case of the 15MP sensor, one could argue a virtual "tie" (the 50D/500D intros were very very close), but still the history just doesn't show Rebels leading the way.  So the present intro is without historical precident! 

[x-vision]

y'all are seeing a new APS-C sensor, in the next 12 months, coming on the heals of the newly introduced 18MP hybrid AF sensor?  historical precident suggests that the present t4i sensor will make its way through the rest of the 1.6x ranks.

I agree with you ... unfortunately.

If the 70D has a new (say 22mp) sensor, it will be a first for Canon, where the Rebels and the xxD line  both have new sensors that are different from each other.

More likely, though, the 70D will get Canon's 'new' 18mp sensor from the 650D.

[x-vision]

So...there's only one example of Canon having "led" with sensors in the xxxD rebel and propgating them to the xxD - the 10 MP sensor, but three examples of a sensor debut in the xxD line (prior to the 7D release).

You are looking at this the wrong way, IMO  . 

The historical pattern is not that new 1.6x sensors first get introduced in the xxD line.
The pattern here is that once a new sensor generation comes along, it gets reused in both the Rebels and the xxD line.
The only exception is the 12mp sensor in the 450D but that was because the 50D jumped straight to 15mp - rather than reusing the 12mp sensor.

I'd love to be proven wrong but it looks like the 650D sensor is Canon's 'new' sensor. 
So, it's very likely that this 'new' sensor will be reused in the 70D as well.

[neuroanatomist]

you're so right I should have studied that more carefully.  Even in the case of the 15MP sensor, one could argue a virtual "tie" (the 50D/500D intros were very very close), but still the history just doesn't show Rebels leading the way.  So the present intro is without historical precident!

Well, here's the thing.  Technically, the T4i/650D sensor is "new" in the sense that it has on-sensor phase-detect AF pixels.  Fine.  But it's still an 18 MP sensor.  While gear-heads and technophiles abound here on CR, the general public will see a Rebel/xxxD with an 18 MP sensor just as the past two generations have had 18 MP sensors, and conclude it's the same sensor (which, from an image capture standpoint it may very well actually be).  So calling it a debut is practically incorrect - from a consumer perspective, it's the same sensor.  The question then becomes, will Canon debut what is popularly perceived as a 'new' sensor (i.e., more MP than the current one, or some other major and tangible improvement) in the 70D, or the 7DII?  Since the 7DII will sit above the 70D in the lineup, it probably makes the most sense to debut the new sensor in the 7DII...the 70D gets the same sensor as the T4i/650D (i.e. AF during video is touted) and the 7D's AF system and various other small improvements.  Maybe.

[dlleno]

you're so right I should have studied that more carefully.  Even in the case of the 15MP sensor, one could argue a virtual "tie" (the 50D/500D intros were very very close), but still the history just doesn't show Rebels leading the way.  So the present intro is without historical precident!

Well, here's the thing.  Technically, the T4i/650D sensor is "new" in the sense that it has on-sensor phase-detect AF pixels.  Fine.  But it's still an 18 MP sensor.  While gear-heads and technophiles abound here on CR, the general public will see a Rebel/xxxD with an 18 MP sensor just as the past two generations have had 18 MP sensors, and conclude it's the same sensor (which, from an image capture standpoint it may very well actually be).  So calling it a debut is practically incorrect - from a consumer perspective, it's the same sensor.  The question then becomes, will Canon debut what is popularly perceived as a 'new' sensor (i.e., more MP than the current one, or some other major and tangible improvement) in the 70D, or the 7DII?  Since the 7DII will sit above the 70D in the lineup, it probably makes the most sense to debut the new sensor in the 7DII...the 70D gets the same sensor as the T4i/650D (i.e. AF during video is touted) and the 7D's AF system and various other small improvements.  Maybe.

I too find it extraordinary that this new sensor apparently makes no contribution to image capture IQ -- it appears to be more about hybrid AF. We have postulated all along that in order for it to appear "new" Canon would need to either bump the MP count or engage in a marketing thrust to re-educate the public as to why the new one is better.  So far, the low noise marketing is aimed Digic 5 in-camera jpg processing which may very well be the (stills) target audience for this camera.  So they are touting low noise in ways that most entry level photographers wont really know how to take advantage of, but will be thrilled to know it is there. 

I suspect and hope that the 7D2 public is diffrerent, and that Canon realizes this 18MP sensor in a 7D2 would be boring.  x-vision has rightly pointed out that the highest performing 1.6x sensors tend propogate out to the rest of the 1.6x line, unless of course a lower-entry level body lags behind.  But here is where the historical precident fails us:   xxxD's rarely "lead" but 7D "always" leads!  at least we know that Canons sensor fab shop is not closed...

[Ellen Schmidtee]

I too find it extraordinary that this new sensor apparently makes no contribution to image capture IQ -- it appears to be more about hybrid AF. We have postulated all along that in order for it to appear "new" Canon would need to either bump the MP count or engage in a marketing thrust to re-educate the public as to why the new one is better.  So far, the low noise marketing is aimed Digic 5 in-camera jpg processing which may very well be the (stills) target audience for this camera.  So they are touting low noise in ways that most entry level photographers wont really know how to take advantage of, but will be thrilled to know it is there. 

My impression is a large portion of xxxD owners use it as "P&S-on-steroids" w/ one or two lenses, so -

1. Autofocus in video would be a big benefit for them.

2. Improved JPEGs would be a big benefit for them, especially as many of them don't process raw at all.

I did a beginner's photography course that included 13 six hours meeting, split into 2 hours of photoshop, 2 hours with a studio photographer teaching the technical side of photography, and 2 hours with an art professor. Raw wasn'nt even mentioned.

3. I think - naively? - that xxxD body owners can be educated about photography, in terms of print size, ability to crop, and distance to subject. No insult intended, the average xxxD owner isn't shooting lions in a safari for national geographics.

[traveller]

you're so right I should have studied that more carefully.  Even in the case of the 15MP sensor, one could argue a virtual "tie" (the 50D/500D intros were very very close), but still the history just doesn't show Rebels leading the way.  So the present intro is without historical precident!

Well, here's the thing.  Technically, the T4i/650D sensor is "new" in the sense that it has on-sensor phase-detect AF pixels.  Fine.  But it's still an 18 MP sensor.  While gear-heads and technophiles abound here on CR, the general public will see a Rebel/xxxD with an 18 MP sensor just as the past two generations have had 18 MP sensors, and conclude it's the same sensor (which, from an image capture standpoint it may very well actually be).  So calling it a debut is practically incorrect - from a consumer perspective, it's the same sensor.  The question then becomes, will Canon debut what is popularly perceived as a 'new' sensor (i.e., more MP than the current one, or some other major and tangible improvement) in the 70D, or the 7DII?  Since the 7DII will sit above the 70D in the lineup, it probably makes the most sense to debut the new sensor in the 7DII...the 70D gets the same sensor as the T4i/650D (i.e. AF during video is touted) and the 7D's AF system and various other small improvements.  Maybe.

I too find it extraordinary that this new sensor apparently makes no contribution to image capture IQ -- it appears to be more about hybrid AF. We have postulated all along that in order for it to appear "new" Canon would need to either bump the MP count or engage in a marketing thrust to re-educate the public as to why the new one is better.  So far, the low noise marketing is aimed Digic 5 in-camera jpg processing which may very well be the (stills) target audience for this camera.  So they are touting low noise in ways that most entry level photographers wont really know how to take advantage of, but will be thrilled to know it is there. 

I suspect and hope that the 7D2 public is diffrerent, and that Canon realizes this 18MP sensor in a 7D2 would be boring.  x-vision has rightly pointed out that the highest performing 1.6x sensors tend propogate out to the rest of the 1.6x line, unless of course a lower-entry level body lags behind.  But here is where the historical precident fails us:   xxxD's rarely "lead" but 7D "always" leads!  at least we know that Canons sensor fab shop is not closed...

I don't find it extraordinary at all; my reasoning is that I don't think that Canon would have to fabricate an entire new design of sensor in order to achieve on-chip phase detect AF.  The patents that have been published so far seem to describe a method for on-chip phase detect AF using filter/masks over the top of the sensor.  It's therefore possible that only the filters in front of the sensor need to be altered to achieve this (along with some clever image processing) and not the whole architecture of the sensor chip. 

[dlleno]

well, I would not find it extraordinary either,  if Canon accomplished the hybrid AF with the addition of masks and filters on top of the existing sensor.  That is plausable, as long as it explains the different MP count between the two sensors (the "new" one is a couple hundred thousand pixels fewer)

 What would  be extraordinary is to find that the new sensor  is actually a new sensor without IQ/ISO improvements. 

[dilbert]

Maybe I'm using too narrow of a definition of a "new" sensor, but I haven't seen any indication that the T4i sensor makes any improvement in sensitivity, dynamic range, noise or resolution. It sounds like the only change to the sensor is to allow for autofocus in live view and movie mode.

I'm not saying that's insignificant. I'm just suggesting that when we talk about sensor improvements, that's not usually what people on this forum are thinking about.  This is a sensor change in order to allow another technology (autofocus) to work better. But, is there any indication that Canon has actually improved the performance of the sensor itself? Am I missing something here?

This has been my exact point - yes, technically it's 'new' but have there been in improvements that actually affect the IQ of the sensor?

Not if Canon can get away with it.