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Author Topic: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]  (Read 60017 times)

Neeneko

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #105 on: March 26, 2012, 10:19:28 AM »
Because the entire camera is currently 3.5 years old.

Tell me what other electronic device you would buy "new" today that was released 3.5 years ago?

This gets into the split between consumer markets and professional or industrial markets.

For instance, I used to work for a company that made a type of game system.  Our customers generally had a 3 year software upgrade cycle, and maybe a 5-8 year hardware upgrade.  In general we produced new hardware models every 2-3 years but kept producing ones for much longer because customers wanted them.

Though if you want to talk consumer equipment, look at video game consoles.   The Wii and PS3 are 6 years old, you can still buy them.  The XBox360 is 7 years old, you can still buy them.  The PS2 is 12 years old and you can buy them new.

Computers tend to be a bad example because the whole supply chain moves, it becomes more expensive to produce older models then newer ones, so there is no economic benefit to continuing to manufacturer something using older parts, which is why you tend to see these incremental 'oh, that chip is now more expensive, well, swap it out for the newer one and that is our release this year' ones.

You tend to get this 3 year cycle time when you are dealing with either supply chain issues, or consumer upgrade fashions.  Once you get away form those two areas you start to see things that stay in manufacturing a lot longer because industrial and professional work tends to be much more stable... not to mention more grounded in 'does this spec meet need X?' as opposed to 'oh boy, more Y!', thus buyers are less willing to pay for upgrades that do not actually benefit them in some 'demonstrable to accounting' way.

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #105 on: March 26, 2012, 10:19:28 AM »

APBPhoto

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #106 on: March 26, 2012, 10:40:40 AM »
It hasn't even been 30 days since latest camera hit the streets, letting info about another FF camera leak out will help stop people considering switching brands but it also has to slow down sales of new product. Why wait 90 days to let the some of kinks get flushed out before starting the whole cycle of high hopes for the everything camera?


Neeneko

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #107 on: March 26, 2012, 10:43:33 AM »
It hasn't even been 30 days since latest camera hit the streets, letting info about another FF camera leak out will help stop people considering switching brands but it also has to slow down sales of new product. Why wait 90 days to let the some of kinks get flushed out before starting the whole cycle of high hopes for the everything camera?

This is why I am always a bit surprised at how camera manufacturers stagger their releases the way they do.  Having multiple overlapping models with erratic release schedules is just begging for the osborne effect and is kinda why so many other industries usually update their entire line at once.

darryl

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #108 on: March 26, 2012, 10:59:35 AM »
Personally I just don't see where a new FF camera fits into canons lineup.  People are talking about having it be like a 5Dm2 but with digic 5 and better AF.... No offense but thats the dumbest thing I've ever heard.  Everyone and there mom said I love my 5Dm2 but the AF needs work, make a better AF and I'm buying it.  Hmmm I wonder if there is a camera that is like the 5Dm2 but has better AF.....Come on people.  You would seriously cannibalize the 5Dm3 market.  And lets face it.  Yes there are some people who just can't make that financial reach to the 5Dm3 but there are just as many people who really would like a $2,000 FF camera but don't want a 4 year old camera and dish out the extra dough for the 5Dm3.

I think people like to guess what the newest camera will be based on what they want personally and not on what would work well in the market.  To all the people who say that a new $2,000 slr FF would make a killing.  Your right it would.  It would kill the 5Dm3.  Unless you can tell me a way to offer a new $2,000 slr FF that differs enough in specs from the 5Dm3 that would justify a $1,500 difference between the cameras I'm calling shinanigans.



maxxevv

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #109 on: March 26, 2012, 11:10:58 AM »
To all the people who say that a new $2,000 slr FF would make a killing.  Your right it would.  It would kill the 5Dm3.  Unless you can tell me a way to offer a new $2,000 slr FF that differs enough in specs from the 5Dm3 that would justify a $1,500 difference between the cameras I'm calling shinanigans.

Just fit the FF sensor into a suitably sized body and carry all the features, build quality of the upcoming new Rebel. Keep the framerate at <=3fps.  And video functions of 1 generation ago.

US$1500~$1999 is something which the market will most probably jump on en-masse like they did with the original Rebel all those years ago at US$999/- . 

ssrdd

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #110 on: March 26, 2012, 11:14:59 AM »
these guys trying very hard to make us forget how bad is 5Dmk3. So this NEW rumor...

D_Rochat

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #111 on: March 26, 2012, 11:59:16 AM »
these guys trying very hard to make us forget how bad is 5Dmk3. So this NEW rumor...

Would you care to explain how the 5D mkIII is a "bad" camera please?

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #111 on: March 26, 2012, 11:59:16 AM »

itsnotmeyouknow

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #112 on: March 26, 2012, 12:40:48 PM »
Release an 'entry level' medium format, high resolution camera...  ;)

I'd love Canon to do that.  I have the Pentax 645D which is an "entry level" medium format high resolution camera that gives great definition and sharpness.  Yes it was £6300 (equivalent UK price paid in Tokyo) but that's a good price for a great camera. Mine is waiting for repair because I used a sunsling which disconnected and dropped the camera.  No big damage but a few buttons no longer work and the camera doesn't register the existence of the cable release

Neeneko

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #113 on: March 26, 2012, 12:50:45 PM »

Release an 'entry level' medium format, high resolution camera...  ;)

That would indeed be wonderful.  Given the rather strong second hand market for digial backs in the $2000-4000 range, I think it can be demonstrated that a demand exists, and Canon is good at producing things at a cheap price point.

I could see an entry level medium format view camera really reinvigorating things, I could easily picture a whole new generation of photographers enjoying such a camera.  It isn't going to happen, but I can dream.

Realistically, it will probably be some small company that figures out a way to sell an entry level medium format view camera.  The existing players have no incentive to bring their prices down, and the big consumer companies have no real incentive to expand into markets the average consumer has never heard of..... esp if they are going to increasingly go the 5D route of merging things into a single form factor.

itsnotmeyouknow

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #114 on: March 26, 2012, 01:10:54 PM »

Release an 'entry level' medium format, high resolution camera...  ;)

That would indeed be wonderful.  Given the rather strong second hand market for digial backs in the $2000-4000 range, I think it can be demonstrated that a demand exists, and Canon is good at producing things at a cheap price point.

I could see an entry level medium format view camera really reinvigorating things, I could easily picture a whole new generation of photographers enjoying such a camera.  It isn't going to happen, but I can dream.

Realistically, it will probably be some small company that figures out a way to sell an entry level medium format view camera.  The existing players have no incentive to bring their prices down, and the big consumer companies have no real incentive to expand into markets the average consumer has never heard of..... esp if they are going to increasingly go the 5D route of merging things into a single form factor.

If Canon were to enter this arena, then I'd fully expect the price level to be around the same as the P 645D.  Don't forget you'd also need a whole set of lenses as the image circle on EF lenses would be too small as the sensor on medium format starts at 44mm x 33mm in comparison to 36 x 24.  Also at the moment Live view is not possible in medium format as all the sensors are CCD although I don't think a CMOS would be too far off if the likes of Hasselblad, Phase One and Pentax support it. 

A medium format with 40+ mp Live View and even video at around $10k would fly off the shelves. I suspect the price would be twice that at least (and about 50% more on top in UK).  There is an awful amount of money to be spent on r+d for CMOS as it is and that has to be paid for. 

Basilius

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Concerning the picture, which says "5DX"
« Reply #115 on: March 26, 2012, 01:12:39 PM »
Concerning the picture, which says "5DX":

The reason why the 1DX has the "X" in its name, is because the 1DX is the tenth camera in the 1d(s)/5d  lineup. So it wouldn't make sense to call it 5DX. (Because it isn't the tenth camera, perhaps the 12th...)

kind reagards
Basilius

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #116 on: March 26, 2012, 01:18:30 PM »
Although I have found it's usually not a good idea to bet against CR Guy's sources, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the "entry-level DSLR" concept.

But, looking at it from Canon's perspective (not from the many wish-list comments I've read) I can see it under these circumstances:

Manufacturing three full-frame sensors is inefficient and ties up fabrication resources that can be better used for other purposes. So, instead of continuing to make the 5DII sensor, maybe it makes sense to switch to the 5DIII sensor (Assuming production costs of the new sensor are not much different than those of the older sensor)

Canon does like to re-use its sensors, as evidenced by the APS-C line, so having one sensor in at least two full-frame bodies makes some sense.

Same with the DIGIC chip. Probably cheaper to just use the DIGIC V, instead of keeping an old chip alive.

Apparently, again judging by the APS-C lineup, the incremental cost of slightly different models is not significant, so perhaps Canon would like to stretch its full frame development costs over more bodies.

Canon doesn't seem to be concerned about cannibalization of sales from one body to another (Again, note the clustering of features with the APS-C lineup) so they may not be concerned that a less expensive full frame will cut into 5DIII territory (They don't seem to be concerned that the 5DIII will hurt the 1Dx.)

The question, I think, is autofocus. Do they recycle the original 5D autofocus one more time? Or, do they spend the money on a new autofocus that is improved from the 5DII but not up to 5DIII standards? I'm guessing the latter, just because they probably don't think they can get away with using the same old autofocus one more time. But, that does create new costs.

Then, it's just a matter of picking and choosing which features to leave off and which ones to keep. Probably a mixture based on the incremental costs/savings from each feature. One thing they definitely will have is video capability. Anyone who thinks we will ever see a stills-only camera again is crazy. The incremental costs of video are small, but the risk of lost sales by leaving it out are huge.

So, maybe a rebranded 5DII with a 5DIII sensor and processor, possibly with a different autofocus or possibly with the same 5DII autofocus.

Price: I would say that without a new autofocus they might bring it in for $2,200. With a new autofocus, maybe closer to $2,500. I think an under $2,000 full framer is very, very unlikely.

Will it replace the 7D? Not in a million years. This obsession that full-frame fanboys have with APS-C is just ridiculous. APS-C fills a much-needed niche that has only gotten more significant with the killing off of the APS-H sensor.

Perhaps in five years the technology will have advanced sufficiently to offer an all-in-one DSLR that can shoot both formats, but it isn't there yet.

There will definitely be a 7DII and there may even be a 7DX (Enthusiast version with add on grip/Professional sports and wildlife version with one-piece integrated body and grip).

bvukich

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Re: Concerning the picture, which says "5DX"
« Reply #117 on: March 26, 2012, 01:28:02 PM »
Concerning the picture, which says "5DX":

The reason why the 1DX has the "X" in its name, is because the 1DX is the tenth camera in the 1d(s)/5d  lineup. So it wouldn't make sense to call it 5DX. (Because it isn't the tenth camera, perhaps the 12th...)

kind reagards
Basilius

The G1X wasn't the tenth G-series camera.

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Re: Concerning the picture, which says "5DX"
« Reply #117 on: March 26, 2012, 01:28:02 PM »

JR

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #118 on: March 26, 2012, 01:53:54 PM »
If a new FF is called 5DX, I surely dont think it would be an entry level.  I would see the X more for a high MP new DSLR that would complement the current lineup - ok ok guys this is wishful thinking!
1DX, 24mm f1.4L II, 35mm f1.4L, 50mm f1.2L, 85mm f1.2L II, 135mm f2L, 24-70mm f2.8L II, 70-200mm f2.8L IS II :  D800, D4, and a whole bunch of Nikon lenses

dooboo

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #119 on: March 26, 2012, 02:09:03 PM »
If a new FF is called 5DX, I surely dont think it would be an entry level.  I would see the X more for a high MP new DSLR that would complement the current lineup - ok ok guys this is wishful thinking!

How about 5DIII...remove the Mark...leaving the "Mark" for higher end model.  LOL

How about little bit of MKT strategy from the Dark Side...5D Mark IIIe or s or c or whatever...LOL

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Re: Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]
« Reply #119 on: March 26, 2012, 02:09:03 PM »