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Author Topic: Too Many Lens Rumours  (Read 7138 times)

Flake

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Too Many Lens Rumours
« on: February 13, 2011, 04:41:55 AM »
Is it just me or do others think there are far too many rumoured new lenses around at the moment?  It seems that other than the lenses recently replaced every single remaining lens is rumoured for replacement!

All the primes are regularly mentioned - quite a few specifically; all the macro lenses are supposed to be getting H-IS, the remaining Tilt Shifts upgraded to 'L' status; both standard zooms are mentioned, and at least a new wide angle with a possible replacement for the 17 - 40mm with an IS version to rival Nikon, even the MP-e 65mm has been mentioned!

There seems far too may lenses rumoured for replacement for Canon to ever be able to produce in one year, someone's going to be dissapointed!

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Too Many Lens Rumours
« on: February 13, 2011, 04:41:55 AM »

tzalmagor

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2011, 06:46:30 AM »
I think every reader of this site knows, or should know, rumors are just rumors. Hence, some or true, and some aren't. As I think I wrote before, I don't see the MP-E 65mm being upgraded, because this is a good lens (or, at least that's what I've read), and it has no competition. I think it unlikely Canon would upgrade such a lens.

As it takes a while to develop lenses (I think I've heard the figure 3 years mentioned before, I wouldn't know, and then rumors say some lenses get redesigned before release), rumors might be about lenses to be released over several years.

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2011, 10:39:32 AM »
There seems far too may lenses rumoured for replacement for Canon to ever be able to produce in one year, someone's going to be dissapointed!

stuff that's rumored often takes several years to show up; it doesn't mean the rumor is entirely inaccurate.  other time, rumors are simply fancified wishlists of certain individuals.

when you look at it from that perspective, it's no surprise that there's always rumors for far more lenses than can possibly show up in a year.  and yes, people who get too vested in rumors do end up disappointed.

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2011, 10:58:16 AM »
Is it just me or do others think there are far too many rumoured new lenses around at the moment?  It seems that other than the lenses recently replaced every single remaining lens is rumoured for replacement!

All the primes are regularly mentioned - quite a few specifically; all the macro lenses are supposed to be getting H-IS, the remaining Tilt Shifts upgraded to 'L' status; both standard zooms are mentioned, and at least a new wide angle with a possible replacement for the 17 - 40mm with an IS version to rival Nikon, even the MP-e 65mm has been mentioned!

There seems far too may lenses rumoured for replacement for Canon to ever be able to produce in one year, someone's going to be dissapointed!

There's a lot for sure.

I was told 2011 would be a big lens year, so I'm not surprised. Nikon launched 9 lenses in 2010 I think.

In 2011 from Canon we have 4 so far. Do we count the 500 & 600 since they were development announcements in 2010? Not sure, I will for now.

  • 200-400 f/4L IS 1.4x
  • 500 f/4L IS II
  • 600 f/4L IS II
  • 18-55 f/3.5-5.6 IS II

Seeing another 5-6 announced from Canon in 2011 isn't out of the question.

Canon had a big lead on Nikon for lenses up until the last 24 months or so. Nikon really addressed their prime weaknesses. Canon has struck back with some innovative design like the 8-15 and 200-400 1.4x.

It's going to be an interesting year.

2012 is shaping up as a camera body year. 7D replacement, 70D, 1Ds4 (so I've been told) and maybe a mirrorless solution.
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Woody

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2011, 11:41:26 AM »
Canon had a big lead on Nikon for lenses up until the last 24 months or so. Nikon really addressed their prime weaknesses. Canon has struck back with some innovative design like the 8-15 and 200-400 1.4x.

Canon needs an ultrawide zoom lens that rivals the 14-24 f/2.8. They also need a cheap, good, fast, USM prime lens in the standard range for APS-C shooters (like the Nikon 35 f/1.8 ). The rest... I don't care.

Regarding lens milestones:
Canon milestones: 30 million in Jan 2006, 40 million in Apr 2008, 50 million in Jan 2010, 60 million in Feb 2011

Nikon milestones: 30 million in Nov 2001, 40 million in July 2007, 50 million in Sep 2009. 55 million in Sep 2010

So, in the 2010 period, Canon sold ~ 10 million lenses while Nikon sold ~ 5 million.

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2011, 11:50:29 AM »
Canon had a big lead on Nikon for lenses up until the last 24 months or so. Nikon really addressed their prime weaknesses. Canon has struck back with some innovative design like the 8-15 and 200-400 1.4x.

Canon needs an ultrawide zoom lens that rivals the 14-24 f/2.8. They also need a cheap, good, fast, USM prime lens in the standard range for APS-C shooters (like the Nikon 35 f/1.8 ). The rest... I don't care.

Regarding lens milestones:
Canon milestones: 30 million in Jan 2006, 40 million in Apr 2008, 50 million in Jan 2010, 60 million in Feb 2011

Nikon milestones: 30 million in Nov 2001, 40 million in July 2007, 50 million in Sep 2009. 55 million in Sep 2010

So, in the 2010 period, Canon sold ~ 10 million lenses while Nikon sold ~ 5 million.

Break down the Nikon lenses by type.  The Canon lens production quantities are only EF Autofocus lenses which are equivalent to Canon "G" lenses, while you are including every 35mm lens Nikon has ever made including those with manual focus only which are mostly incompatible with modern Nikon Cameras.

papa-razzi

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2011, 11:53:33 AM »
Also, to me at least, it seems some of the new lenses recently announced weren't talked about much on the rumor mill - such as the 200-400 / 1.4 extender.

So my take is that most of everything talked about on this and other sites is just talk and wishful thinking, and that Canon does a pretty good job keeping it's plans confidential.

Basing purchasing decisions, or delaying them, etc. on rumor sites is a crap shoot.  If an announcement date is near, then it might be worth it for some folks to hold off and see what happens, but other than that, it is fun stuff to talk about, but not real information to base any decision on .
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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2011, 11:53:33 AM »

Flake

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2011, 12:12:46 PM »
Canon sure have been busy in the last 12 months with all the big whites replaced, and several of the smaller ones too, I think the only two to have survived are the 28 - 300mm IS L and the 100 - 400mm IS L although the later is rumoured for replacement.

On top of this there have been new introductions such as the 70 -300mm IS L and the fisheye zoom.  H-IS hit the macro scene and as yet the only lens with it is the 100mm IS L Macro - there certainly should be more, if the technology is to be fully used.  The 70 - 200mm f2.8 IS L was updated no word on a non IS version which shouldn't need that much development and would make sense.

It's easier at the moment though to name the few lenses which people don't believe are going to be replaced, I'm sure you're right that Canon will be introducing a lot of new / updated models over the next year, but that there are a majority which will not be updated this time around.

At the moment the future is difficult to see, it does make me wonder if the waters haven't been deliberately muddied by those with an interest in confusing the pundits, so which 7 lenses are the favourites to be updated come the next announcement?

(I've used 7 on the basis of 9 new lenses with two having no current model to replace)

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2011, 12:16:12 PM »
Yes, a favorite rumor subject for several years have been replacement of the 100-400mm L, the 400mm f/5.6L, and 24-70mm L.  Anyone who makes decisions based on rumors would have been waiting 5 years or more by now, and imagine if they has sold their old lens!

Just read the rumors and have fun, but don't take it too seriously. 

Nikon appears to let rumors be leaked, while Canon does not even lets many of its higher execitives know what is coming unless, of course, they need the information. 

Sigma announces products often a year or more in advance of availability, and sometimes we never see the product.  I'd prefer having a product announced only when its ready for delivery, or within 2 months max, but marketing types sometimes have a different philosophy.

niko

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2011, 12:27:48 PM »
There was an interesting article I read about Nikon - a few years ago they had the capacity to have 18 lenses in the various development stages (it takes approximately 3 years from start to finish for a lens to be available in the market) and have recently doubled their capacity to 36.

I wonder if anyone has similar information on Canon's capacity - it seems like they are also ramping up their capacity as well with the opening of the new production facility (in Japan), specifically for higher end lenses (L).
Canon has been relatively dormant the last few years with few new lens announcements per year.

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2011, 02:23:11 PM »
Looking at the recent past Canon have been averaging about 4 or 5 lenses a year. Now, most of these are L and exotic lenses, so I don't know if they could do more if they were only simple ones. Given Nikon are expected to unveil their mirrorless system soon, they're going to want to back that up with a strong lens lineup, so that increased capacity might not all go to SLR lenses. Given how secretive Canon manages to be, who knows what their plans are in that department.
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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2011, 03:23:49 PM »
The nice thing about lens rumors is that if you live long enough, they almost all come true because eventually Canon will replace every lens they make.
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Woody

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2011, 06:53:58 PM »
Break down the Nikon lenses by type.  The Canon lens production quantities are only EF Autofocus lenses which are equivalent to Canon "G" lenses, while you are including every 35mm lens Nikon has ever made including those with manual focus only which are mostly incompatible with modern Nikon Cameras.

Well, those figures are OFFICIAL milestone numbers released by Nikon and Canon themselves. I cannot break down the fine details... you'll have to ask Nikon themselves. :)

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2011, 06:53:58 PM »

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2011, 10:43:05 PM »
Break down the Nikon lenses by type.  The Canon lens production quantities are only EF Autofocus lenses which are equivalent to Canon "G" lenses, while you are including every 35mm lens Nikon has ever made including those with manual focus only which are mostly incompatible with modern Nikon Cameras.

Well, those figures are OFFICIAL milestone numbers released by Nikon and Canon themselves. I cannot break down the fine details... you'll have to ask Nikon themselves. :)

The point is, comparing apples and oranges doesn't help.  Its like comparing company a which sold 50 million AA batteries while company b sold 50 million batteries total, the information is misleading.

match14

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2011, 08:41:02 AM »
Lens rumours have always been the most popular of all rumours.

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Re: Too Many Lens Rumours
« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2011, 08:41:02 AM »