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Author Topic: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]  (Read 70292 times)

jrista

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #90 on: May 01, 2012, 12:59:10 AM »
Ok, here's something that people often seem to overlook. Despite being somewhat outdated, the 5D mk II still sells well. Canon has simply been operating on the principle of "if it aint broke, don't fix it." When people stop buying the mk II, Canon will replace it, most likely with an affordable entry-level body.

No truer words... +1

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #90 on: May 01, 2012, 12:59:10 AM »

elflord

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #91 on: May 01, 2012, 08:20:58 PM »
What seems ridiculous to me is that the 5D2 was released 3+ years ago, you don't think with thousands and thousands of them on the streets that the cost of manufacturing can't be reduced to say 1,500?   Who cares if it used to cost 10 thousand dollars eventually things become cheaper. 

Sensor technology hasn't changed substantially -- the 5DMkII sensor still costs much more to manufacture and is still worth much more (and performs vastly better than) a current crop sensor.

The purchase price available to the consumer has little to do with manufacturing cost, it has to do with supply and demand. If you can find something that potential buyers have already bought or don't want, and large numbers of current owners don't want, you will get a great deal (from your perspective). The 5DII appears to fit into that category to some extent, but the correction has already happened. The fact is, as you can tell by looking at prices even for very old full frame bodies, the demand for full frame bodies is very resilient.

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  If you could show me that there were not newer better camera's coming out anytime soon, how can I as a 450D user justify 2,000 on a nearly 4 year old body. 

Well, it does leave all the current APS-C bodies in the dust as far as image quality is concerned. So if you care about image quality, you have every reason to pay a premium for full frame. For those who don't want to pay a premium for full frame, why not be thankful that good APS-C bodies are cheap instead of complaining that full frame bodies are expensive ?


Marsu42

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #92 on: May 02, 2012, 01:52:58 AM »
For those who don't want to pay a premium for full frame, why not be thankful that good APS-C bodies are cheap instead of complaining that full frame bodies are expensive ?

I'd be fine with aps-c for the time being, but unfortunately aps-c is no equivalent alternative because the eos ecosystem is more geared toward ff - historically and marketing-wise. A lot of aps-c users who are ok with their sensor but want more sharpness or better lens build use ef lenses. While it is a strange side effect that ef lenses have an extended reach on aps-c, you can only use their full potential of on ff.

Sensor technology hasn't changed substantially -- the 5DMkII sensor still costs much more to manufacture and is still worth much more (and performs vastly better than) a current crop sensor.

Well, it hasn't changed for Canon - that's what many people are complaining about :-p ... but real question: How do you know ff the gap between ff and aps-c sensor manufacturing cost is as large as in the last years? Is it because there is no "shrink" like in cpu tech, but a sensor process still needs the same die space and there are many broken ones with hot pixels? However, one would think that manufacturing costs would still drop over time and the 5d3 premium price couldn't be due to sensor cost.

moreorless

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #93 on: May 02, 2012, 03:05:21 AM »
I can't see Canon being THAT cheap on the body, handicapping AF, lowering FPS, reducing weather sealing yes but lower quality than the 60D seems unlikely to me given the target audience.

Ultimately, Canon will be as cheap or not as the buyers dictate it - and just now, ff has the "pro" marketing sticker on it, and Canon will exploit this with a price premium as long as they can get away with it. Thus, I do see a ff high mp body next to or above the 5d3, a 5d2 successor at ~2000$, but imho a real ff entry level body is years away.

Canon's hand maybe somewhat forced by the competision in this case if Nikon does come up with a rumoured $1500 FF body.

The 5D mk3 has the advanatge that it seems to be targetted mostly as pro's who both have existing lens investments and maybe willing to pay for its "all rounder" features as they did for the 1Ds in the past. In the amature market though I think things are becoming more competitive and Nikon looks to have reduced their profit margin significantly in order to increase market share.

As I said my opinion is that resolution remains king in the amature market, while not many people print these days I'd guess a pretty high percentage of FF users do and getting the highest quality print of a holiday landscape or family shot to hang on the wal(where even 30x20 isnt THAT large)l is IMHO the key factor for them. 

That was I'd say the key to the 5D2's continued sucess and I think Canon would be well served by looking to follow that up. The best way to do that to me seems to be to release a high MP body that undercuts the D800 in price while scaling back on some of the "pro" functionality of the 5D3.

nicku

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #94 on: May 02, 2012, 03:31:34 AM »
I can't see Canon being THAT cheap on the body, handicapping AF, lowering FPS, reducing weather sealing yes but lower quality than the 60D seems unlikely to me given the target audience.

Ultimately, Canon will be as cheap or not as the buyers dictate it - and just now, ff has the "pro" marketing sticker on it, and Canon will exploit this with a price premium as long as they can get away with it. Thus, I do see a ff high mp body next to or above the 5d3, a 5d2 successor at ~2000$, but imho a real ff entry level body is years away.

Canon's hand maybe somewhat forced by the competision in this case if Nikon does come up with a rumoured $1500 FF body.



More realistic will be a 7D mk2 with a APS-H sensor and 20-24 MP ( to compete with Nikon budget ff body and preserve the wildlife capabilities and extra reach reputation of the actual 7D).... move a little bit up the new 70D to compete with Nikon d300S replacement.

If Nikon will come with an  $2000 ff body than maybe the new D400 will be moved one step down ( like 60D was)....

2012 will be a very interesting year.....
« Last Edit: May 02, 2012, 03:33:19 AM by nicku »

plutonium10

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #95 on: May 02, 2012, 05:17:03 AM »
More realistic will be a 7D mk2 with a APS-H sensor and 20-24 MP ( to compete with Nikon budget ff body and preserve the wildlife capabilities and extra reach reputation of the actual 7D).... move a little bit up the new 70D to compete with Nikon d300S replacement.

An APS-H 7D is a nice idea, but the big problem is that it would lack wide-angle coverage (21mm equivalent with a 16-35 and no EF-S). Manufacturing an APS-H body to compete directly with a Nikon FF body would likely lose Canon a lot of market share for this very reason.

Recent 5D mk II customers no doubt include lots of landscape/nature/architecture photographers who want full frame coverage and good IQ at a reasonable price but don't really mind the 5D II's ancient AF system. There's no reason why they would buy a 1.3x crop and lose critically important wide-angle coverage, so the new Nikon FF would be the logical upgrade path for them.
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nicku

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #96 on: May 02, 2012, 05:59:52 AM »
More realistic will be a 7D mk2 with a APS-H sensor and 20-24 MP ( to compete with Nikon budget ff body and preserve the wildlife capabilities and extra reach reputation of the actual 7D).... move a little bit up the new 70D to compete with Nikon d300S replacement.

An APS-H 7D is a nice idea, but the big problem is that it would lack wide-angle coverage (21mm equivalent with a 16-35 and no EF-S). Manufacturing an APS-H body to compete directly with a Nikon FF body would likely lose Canon a lot of market share for this very reason.

Recent 5D mk II customers no doubt include lots of landscape/nature/architecture photographers who want full frame coverage and good IQ at a reasonable price but don't really mind the 5D II's ancient AF system. There's no reason why they would buy a 1.3x crop and lose critically important wide-angle coverage, so the new Nikon FF would be the logical upgrade path for them.

The last 7D MkII rumor on the front page of this website was that there will be no 7D Mk II.... so...

I will give you a very simple example:  one car manufacturer make a car that is predicted to sell in say... 200.000 exemplars... huge success ..... and they sell 600.000... they will interrupt the current model and they will not came out with a new generation?????

Same with 7D HUGE success ..... is not logical to interrupt the model. Maybe will be FF maybe APS-H or APS-C but 7Dmk2 will be released.

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #96 on: May 02, 2012, 05:59:52 AM »

moreorless

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #97 on: May 02, 2012, 07:11:43 AM »
I'v not seen it disucssed much recently but might one alternative be that Canon are looking to release a Foveon like sensor for the high resolution market? there was some talk about a pantent last year if I remmeber correct.

That would seem to explain a few things I'd say. If Canon tested and then ditched the idea of a high MP conventional bayer sensor in the last 2-3 years then its easy to see them failing somewhat behind Sony in the resolution stakes. Equally I'd say it would explain the 5D3 specs given multi leyaer sensors problems with video.

K-amps

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #98 on: May 02, 2012, 07:20:42 AM »
I'v not seen it disucssed much recently but might one alternative be that Canon are looking to release a Foveon like sensor for the high resolution market? there was some talk about a pantent last year if I remmeber correct.

That would seem to explain a few things I'd say. If Canon tested and then ditched the idea of a high MP conventional bayer sensor in the last 2-3 years then its easy to see them failing somewhat behind Sony in the resolution stakes. Equally I'd say it would explain the 5D3 specs given multi leyaer sensors problems with video.

wouldnt a lot of still photographers buy a good sensor even if it did not have video?
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elflord

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #99 on: May 02, 2012, 07:26:53 AM »
For those who don't want to pay a premium for full frame, why not be thankful that good APS-C bodies are cheap instead of complaining that full frame bodies are expensive ?

I'd be fine with aps-c for the time being, but unfortunately aps-c is no equivalent alternative because the eos ecosystem is more geared toward ff - historically and marketing-wise. A lot of aps-c users who are ok with their sensor but want more sharpness or better lens build use ef lenses. While it is a strange side effect that ef lenses have an extended reach on aps-c, you can only use their full potential of on ff.

I find this a little perplexing because I agree that it's probably true for wide angle lenses, but it seems you only own tele lenses ? What is the extra potential you get from projecting your image onto a larger sensor with a tele ? If canon's long teles are capable of projecting an image onto a larger sensor still, does that mean that full frame doesn't use the lenses to their full potential either ?

Quote
Sensor technology hasn't changed substantially -- the 5DMkII sensor still costs much more to manufacture and is still worth much more (and performs vastly better than) a current crop sensor.

Well, it hasn't changed for Canon - that's what many people are complaining about :-p ...

No, hasn't changed period. Compare the SNR graph at DxO with any full frame model with the same for any APS-C mode.

Quote
but real question: How do you know ff the gap between ff and aps-c sensor manufacturing cost is as large as in the last years?

I don't know if the gap is as large. I do know that we don't have some Moore's law effect where sensors are improving performance along a sustained exponential curve. Many of the people who assume costs should be plummeting appeal to some kind of "Moore's law for cameras" but there is no empirical evidence to validate this.

But also, as I pointed out, manufacturing costs are largely beside the point (or at least only to the point to the extent to which they affect supply and demand).

The law of supply and demand states that if there's something that everyone wants that is in limited supply, it will cost you. If you're willing to buy the thing that is not especially rare, that most of the potential buyers have already bought, and some current owners are trying to get rid of, you can invariably get it cheaply regardless of how much it cost to manufacture (I suppose the 5DC probably  cost more in real terms to manufacture than the 5DIII)

No matter how badly you might wish for it, you are not going to be able to get the latest and greatest toy with all the best and newest features for the same price as the old thing that nobody wants anymore. If the price on an item drops, it is always because the item has lost some of its shine, and at that point the complainers don't want it any more as they have found something newer and shinier to complain about.

« Last Edit: May 02, 2012, 07:28:40 AM by elflord »

briansquibb

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #100 on: May 02, 2012, 10:06:51 AM »
More realistic will be a 7D mk2 with a APS-H sensor and 20-24 MP ( to compete with Nikon budget ff body and preserve the wildlife capabilities and extra reach reputation of the actual 7D).... move a little bit up the new 70D to compete with Nikon d300S replacement.

An APS-H 7D is a nice idea, but the big problem is that it would lack wide-angle coverage (21mm equivalent with a 16-35 and no EF-S). Manufacturing an APS-H body to compete directly with a Nikon FF body would likely lose Canon a lot of market share for this very reason.

Recent 5D mk II customers no doubt include lots of landscape/nature/architecture photographers who want full frame coverage and good IQ at a reasonable price but don't really mind the 5D II's ancient AF system. There's no reason why they would buy a 1.3x crop and lose critically important wide-angle coverage, so the new Nikon FF would be the logical upgrade path for them.

How many sports shooters need more width than 18mm (14mm lens)?

If you are into UWA then ff is the way ahead

moreorless

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #101 on: May 02, 2012, 11:18:58 AM »
I'v not seen it disucssed much recently but might one alternative be that Canon are looking to release a Foveon like sensor for the high resolution market? there was some talk about a pantent last year if I remmeber correct.

That would seem to explain a few things I'd say. If Canon tested and then ditched the idea of a high MP conventional bayer sensor in the last 2-3 years then its easy to see them failing somewhat behind Sony in the resolution stakes. Equally I'd say it would explain the 5D3 specs given multi leyaer sensors problems with video.

wouldnt a lot of still photographers buy a good sensor even if it did not have video?

Yeah I'm sure they would, my point was that if the high resolution body did not feature video then it makes more sense to target the 5D3 which does more at the video market, hence the 22MP ideal for pixel binning and the strong AA filter.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2012, 11:31:20 AM by moreorless »

plutonium10

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #102 on: May 02, 2012, 11:41:41 AM »
More realistic will be a 7D mk2 with a APS-H sensor and 20-24 MP ( to compete with Nikon budget ff body and preserve the wildlife capabilities and extra reach reputation of the actual 7D).... move a little bit up the new 70D to compete with Nikon d300S replacement.

An APS-H 7D is a nice idea, but the big problem is that it would lack wide-angle coverage (21mm equivalent with a 16-35 and no EF-S). Manufacturing an APS-H body to compete directly with a Nikon FF body would likely lose Canon a lot of market share for this very reason.

Recent 5D mk II customers no doubt include lots of landscape/nature/architecture photographers who want full frame coverage and good IQ at a reasonable price but don't really mind the 5D II's ancient AF system. There's no reason why they would buy a 1.3x crop and lose critically important wide-angle coverage, so the new Nikon FF would be the logical upgrade path for them.

How many sports shooters need more width than 18mm (14mm lens)?

If you are into UWA then ff is the way ahead

I used the example of a 16-35 because the 14mm is a rather specialized and uncommon lens not really targeted at an "entry-level" market. Secondly, sports shooters may not need UWA, but many wildlife shooters also shoot landscape.

Anyway, the discussion was about replacing Canon's current "budget" FF camera (the 5D mk II) with an APS-H camera. This would leave a big gap in Canon's lineup for the reasons outlined in my previous post.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2012, 11:46:42 AM by plutonium10 »
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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #102 on: May 02, 2012, 11:41:41 AM »

briansquibb

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #103 on: May 02, 2012, 11:59:13 AM »
More realistic will be a 7D mk2 with a APS-H sensor and 20-24 MP ( to compete with Nikon budget ff body and preserve the wildlife capabilities and extra reach reputation of the actual 7D).... move a little bit up the new 70D to compete with Nikon d300S replacement.

An APS-H 7D is a nice idea, but the big problem is that it would lack wide-angle coverage (21mm equivalent with a 16-35 and no EF-S). Manufacturing an APS-H body to compete directly with a Nikon FF body would likely lose Canon a lot of market share for this very reason.

Recent 5D mk II customers no doubt include lots of landscape/nature/architecture photographers who want full frame coverage and good IQ at a reasonable price but don't really mind the 5D II's ancient AF system. There's no reason why they would buy a 1.3x crop and lose critically important wide-angle coverage, so the new Nikon FF would be the logical upgrade path for them.

How many sports shooters need more width than 18mm (14mm lens)?

If you are into UWA then ff is the way ahead

I used the example of a 16-35 because the 14mm is a rather specialized and uncommon lens not really targeted at an "entry-level" market. Secondly, sports shooters may not need UWA, but many wildlife shooters also shoot landscape.

Anyway, the discussion was about replacing Canon's current "budget" FF camera (the 5D mk II) with an APS-H camera. This would leave a big gap in Canon's lineup for the reasons outlined in my previous post.

Without a aps-h camera there is already a big gap in Canon's lineup. The 7D would continue in the same way as the 5DII so that gap would not happen.

PS Never seen a BIF taking landscapes with a 1D4 - they have a 5DII as a second body ......

plutonium10

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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #104 on: May 02, 2012, 12:16:48 PM »
Without a aps-h camera there is already a big gap in Canon's lineup. The 7D would continue in the same way as the 5DII so that gap would not happen.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with the idea of a 7D mk II possibly being APS-H. The gap in the lineup I'm describing is the one that would be left if this new APS-H *REPLACED* the 5D mk II, and the MK II stopped being sold. What camera would people then buy if they wanted an affordable FF body?

PS Never seen a BIF taking landscapes with a 1D4 - they have a 5DII as a second body ......

Once again, we are talking about entry-level. Most people in the prosumer segment probably don't want to buy a second camera body for wide-angle.
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Re: More Full Frame Cameras on the 2012 Horizon? [CR2/CR1]
« Reply #104 on: May 02, 2012, 12:16:48 PM »