1Ds4 & 5D3 Timetable [CR1]

[DuLt]

I don't believe a smaller sensor will ever have an advantage over a larger one. It has always been the case that a good big-un is better than a good little-un. Convenient and cheaper maybe, but for image quality at the end of the day, the bigger the captured image the better. It was always true with film and I'm convinced that it will remain true in this modern digital world.

It's interesting that Canon are said to be interested in acquiring a medium format foothold. While the Japanese have made the 35mm "full frame" size their own, the same is not true of larger formats. Pentax have at least made a start but Canon and Nikon seem to be a bit slow getting into the game.

Once digital technology matures, I can foresee 1.3x and 1.6x crop frame becoming a thing of the past.   

Given the economics of semiconductor production, smaller sensors will always have a cost advantage over larger sensors.  Since an APS-C sensor is good enough for many uses, we may well see crop frame sensors continue to be used.
Where a crop sensor has a distinct advantage is in areas such as wildlife photography on foot.  A photographer can carry lighter and cheaper lenses, and still get a chance at getting a shot.  (Imagine lugging a 600mm lens on foot across mountainous terrain with a few days' supplies and a tent in your backpack!)
I think the main driver of crop frame sensors will remain cost.  For most of the consumer market, a crop frame sensor is good enough.  This is because the resolving quality is good enough to produce the print sizes most consumers want, and many users are not concerned about the benefits of a full-frame sensor, such as shallower depth of field or better low light performance.

The shallower DoF isn't really a benefict, more a characteristic. Depending on the usage it can be bad or good.

[f1user]

(1) It is easier to get a better resolving ability with an EF-S lens instead an EF one when used on APS-C

(2) "Get the most out of the 18mp crop sensors" is just non sense.  Resolution will improve when you improve either the sensor or lens. So, a better lens will improve the end result resolution on both a 12mp and an 18mp sensors. On the other hand, an 18mp sensor will improve the end result resolution compared to a 12mp sensor, even when used on an old low resolution lens. So the 18mp sensors resolution with the current lenses, are ahead than the lower mp sensors and don't need any extra help, while an improved lens is welcome for all sensors not just the 18mp ones 
 

IMHO a good lens will highlight the defects in a cheap sensor and a high mp sensor will show up the flaws in a cheap lens. Therefore, if you've got a decent crop camera, you want a damn fine lens.

An image produced by a crop sensor has to be enlarged [eg. x 1.6] more than a FF image just to produce the same size print. You enlarge the image... you enlarge the flaws. That's why, traditionally, large & medium format lenses don't have the resolving ability of smaller formats like 35mm. They don't need it.

What I'm trying to say is that, if you're using a crop camera, it's probably more important to have excellent quality glass, and therefore L series lenses are a no brainer. I think that's what the author of this thread was trying to say when they said "“L” lenses and the development of them are whats needed to get the most out of the 18mp crop sensors."

[Eagle Eye]

Comments from Australia
The 5D Mark III will come at least 6 months after the 1Ds replacement. If a 1Ds is announced in April, that would put a 5D3 in the Oct 2011 timeframe. That would be just over 3 years since the 5D Mark II</li>
The EF-S line of lenses are not high on the list of priorities at Canon.</li>
“L” lenses and the development of them are whats needed to get the most out of the 18mp crop sensors.
Australia could expect price drops in April to combat the grey market.</li>
I will note, I have not yet heard from the “2012 for the 1Ds replacement” folks in a while.</p>

A Canon rep who spoke to a local photo club in Sydney, Australia also said categorically "THERE WILL BE NO 5D Mark III in 2011." He said this without qualification (i.e. nothing like "to my knowledge"). He was very frank in this statement. The other things mentioned in the original post were also mentioned.

[prestonpalmer]

I would be astonished if they didn't release a 5DIII in 2011

[x-vision]

The EF-S line of lenses are not high on the list of priorities at Canon.

Right when some 'sources' are claiming that EF-S lenses are no longer a priority for Canon,
Canon is filing a patent for an 11mm/F2 EF-S prime:

http://egami.blog.so-net.ne.jp/2011-04-01#english

So long for the credibility of these so called 'sources'.

See also my previous post in this thread for the upcoming F2 replacement of the 17-55/F2.8.

[kubelik]

The EF-S line of lenses are not high on the list of priorities at Canon.

Right when some 'sources' are claiming that EF-S lenses are no longer a priority for Canon,
Canon is filing a patent for an 11mm/F2 EF-S prime:

http://egami.blog.so-net.ne.jp/2011-04-01#english

So long for the credibility of these so called 'sources'.

See also my previous post in this thread for the upcoming F2 replacement of the 17-55/F2.8.

from what we've seen, Canon's also got a bunch of DO patents out there ... don't draw too big a conclusion about canon's long-term strategy from a single patent