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Author Topic: Is Canon at a Crossroads?  (Read 5257 times)

pwp

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Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2012, 07:04:19 PM »
The integration of their wetware components will be the true advancement but a social minefield.

What? http://www.rudyrucker.com/blog/2007/08/25/what-is-wetware/ Which wetware?

PW

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Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2012, 07:04:19 PM »

Marsu42

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Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2012, 04:15:43 AM »
I think Canon is at a crossroads, but it's not the crossroads you imagine. If you read their announcements for these new lenses and the T4i, it's pretty clear these lenses are targeted to video.R market and I think they intend to hold on to it.

I agree, unfortunately since I don't shoot video. The "crossroads" for Canon is how they'll allocate their r&d resources, i.e. how of the dslr still shooters' market they are willing to loose for the certainty that they have a strong position in the future video & mirrorless markets. And the 650d sensor shows what they're developing, and what not.

marekjoz

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Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2012, 05:02:26 AM »
There are two areas at least:
1. Electronics including sensor technology evolving it's way
2. Glass and optics
Unless there is some quite other way of aquiring an image than through lens to sensor, most probably (99 to 1) bigger glass will mean better IQ. Of course there might appear some very good small lenses better than bigger, but only if it won't be allowed to use some patented technology in the bigger lens that was used in the small ones.
What could eliminate lenses we know them today? Lasers? Electromagnetic wave (photons) detectors (light travels through a pipe and we can discover its measurable parameters with some kind of antenna)? Then lenses we know them today would not be needed anymore. But unless it happens, even if mirrorless system is better and better, bigger glass will always be better. There is of course some point, at which smaller lenses for smaller systems are good enough even if bigger glassess are better. So then there would come applications which would make a use of the bigger glass above the smaller ones so it will roll on again and again.
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lonebear

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Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2012, 12:21:54 PM »
Me thinks several trends might be worth to watch in this regard.

1. Technologies are achieving closer towards the resolution limit of human eyes
    For example, retina display which is at 326 pixels per inch, fairly close to human eye's limit except the fovea.
    Let's pick 36 MP image size, it is about 7350 X 4900, in 24"X16" prints it is 306DPI (printers actually need much higher DPI to achieve this due to dithering).
    If put 36 MP into full format sensors, it will provide resolving ability in the area near 200 pixels per mm, or 100 line pair per mm. (current crop models have higher marks here if the SNR is not the first consideration).
     Current top glasses available in the market can provide resolution around 65 lp/mm. The optics is not really in the close range of 100 lp/mm, but it's in the perspective already. (I guess the size of lens is more related to the exposure quality rather than the resolution quality. Manufacture precisions like the surface accuracy of aspheric elements and the assembling precision of elements inside the lens probably will be more important in this regards).

     My take of this trend: we probably will reach a point very soon that we may have enough megapixels for most of regular use cases, thus a crop model might have some advantages other than image quality over full format.

2. Sensor technology are proving the IQ advantage of larger sensor format will become less significant and evolve towards marginal.
   D800 has proved a 16MP 1.5 crop model can have similar IQ as FF. Here 16MP is the 1.5 crop of 36MP.
   16MP is what 1D4 can offer, very enticing. Will this number climb up further? Very possible, though the simiconductor technology is rapidly approaching the limit of the materials. I have a feeling we probably have much more room to improve in the DR direction than the pixel density. I guess a 24MP or even 30MP sensor with similar FF image quality in five years might not be illusional.

   My take of this trend: more quality crop models obviously. However, once crop models have attained quality, it have a big impact in lens design, which is, few long range heavy big whites, more challenging wide angles (white as well? ;-)

3. Mirrorless technologies are still in their early stage. Currently it is still very difficult to call any technologies available now a real competent OVF alternative. However, what the removal of the mirrow could offer is attractive, a lighter, more compact quality body for the mass population.

...

In my vision, a moderate crop factor pobably APS-C, with reasonable decent image quality will become prevail in the next few years. If mirrorless front could bring up any breakthrough, then mirrorless will join the evolution and call for a new lens mount. However, it will take at least 10 years to build up a full spectrum of quality lenses for a new mount. Therefore, full format and SLR will survive and thrive for quite a long time before it is squeezed into the same camp as the medium format (if MF is not dead beforehand due to lack of R&D budgets).

I know lots of members in this forum might prefer sizeable bodies which can be better balanced with their top glasses. However, what I am pointing out is the trend in the mass consumption (though it's fairly small and targeted) which is usually the decisive factor of product evolution. 40 years ago, few photographers will place serious weight in 135, but it was the winner after all.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2012, 12:28:50 PM by lonebear »

kdsand

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Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2012, 01:04:00 PM »
The integration of their wetware components will be the true advancement but a social minefield.

What? http://www.rudyrucker.com/blog/2007/08/25/what-is-wetware/ Which wetware?

PW
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My intended use of the term-
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elusive1

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Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« Reply #20 on: June 11, 2012, 10:01:13 PM »
There's is a lot of paranoia on this site about DSLR video taking over the stills aspect.

Honestly, for all you still shooters, I don't think you have much to worry about from DSLR video cannibalizing the stills side. Why? Because Canon is losing it's grip on the market it "accidentally created."

The 5D3 was a big disappointment for video. I know of very few video shooters who are super happy with it since it was so crippled for video. As for their higher end cameras like the C-300, which is also under-spec'd and over priced, I don't believe they are exactly flying off the shelves. The pricing of the $15K 1D-C is equally outrageous and who knows if and when that camera will ever come out since the 1D-x took so long.

Most video shooters who bought into the "accidental" DSLR revolution are now looking else where since Canon cannot provide decent video equipment at reasonable prices. Black Magic and Sony (soon to be released FS700 is amazing) are releasing really exciting, progressing video products and many people are starting to move towards those companies. Even Nikon's latest DSLR's are a huge step over their previous video efforts and since they have no high end video market to protect, who knows what they are capable of doing.

Unless Canon stops the heavy crippling and tiering of video, soon, it's going to go back to mostly stills people using Canon cameras, and I'm sure that makes most people on this forum very happy. So REJOICE still shooters, as us video people are steadily migrating away.

Marsu42

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Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2012, 01:42:45 AM »
So REJOICE still shooters, as us video people are steadily migrating away.

Being a still shooter, I hope you are correct. Is there any real evidence the 5d3 doesn't have an impact on the video market? What I'm reading, it performs ok because of less aliasing in comparison to the 5d2, and magic lantern is still to be released for the 5d3 potentially unlocking all formerly crippled features.

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Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2012, 01:42:45 AM »