Northstar,
Case #2 seems to work best, not because it is the best tracking case, but simply for basketball players often times run in front and out of the frame of the player I am tracking, and this case seems to ignore the other player pretty well. However, in low light, I've had it not work sometimes. Low light is very frustrating, but if you can shoot at 1/500, f/2.8, ISO 4000, you're doing pretty well and the AF usually has no problem.