New, cheaper, Canon FF DSLR... 70D?

[funkboy]

Think about ways the current 5DIII could be made cheaper, & I think you'd be pretty close to a potential spec list for such a camera:

• simpler sensor, possibly 18mp but certainly with fewer readout channels
• normal digic 5 (instead of 5+)
• frame rate of that sensor with that digic spec (probably 4 or 5fps)
• 60D-grade weather sealing (I'd rather it be 7D-grade weather sealing though)
• AF sensor from the 60D or 7D
• single CF or SD slot
• maybe give it a built-in flash &/or a tilt/swivel LCD to compete with other cameras in this segment

Musing further upon this...  There are a few trends with the more recent Canon cameras:

• APS-H size(ish) sensors have left pro stills cameras and gone to Ciné cameras
• "Pro" means full-frame (5D3, 1DX)
• "Consumer" means "APS-C" (650D, EOS M)
• The middle ground between them hasn't been updated in quite a while, & it's a Photokina year

Now, the 7D is basically a "Pro" camera, that in a lot of ways replaced the 1D series as the "high FPS" camera for people without a pile of money to sink into this stuff.

There is one thing that has seriously changed the game in the way Canon DSLRs are defined, and that is that single digic5 and digic5+ (which is probably just a faster clock on the ARM processor, which adds a miniscule amount of extra cost & power consumption) have more processing power than anything other than a 1DX can throw at them.

This means that an 18MP full-frame 7D successor could crank 8 FPS with single digic5+.  Basically a "1DX lite".  They'd use the 1DX sensor with fewer read channels to keep costs down.

The main argument against this position is the "1.6x reach" factor that APS-C sensors bring that users of this class of camera really like.  I think that there's a potential response to this in an FF camera that will also address another element that hasn't been taken into consideration: the competition.

Think about a very-high-megapickel FF 4fps camera that shoots 8fps (or more) in ~18megapickel APS-C crop mode.  I'm really not sure how far they'd go in copying Nikon in this regard, but it would address a lot of markets with one product...

I don't think there's room in the lineup for the 7D AND an entry-level FF DSLR AND the 70D.  There's too much overlap between those markets.  Canon would position this camera as somewhat more expensive than the 7D and at least a grand below the 5D3.  It would be marketed as an upsell for existing 7D and xxD users.

Add to that the fact that all the EF-S lenses we've seen since after the 7D release are clearly targeted at the consumer/video market.  No primes, no IS update to the 60mm macro, and the 17-55 f/2.8 IS remains the "flagship" EF-S lens & the only one with a constant aperture.  It doesn't make sense for them to develop more "pro-spec" lenses for the high-end consumer market that will mostly be purchased by the owners of one or two "prosumer" type cameras in the lineup.

[marekjoz]

Let there come an entry level FF from Canon with above written specs, but I'll add one condition:
(Canon don't read this)
let it have only one digic, so the guys form Magic Lantern could hack it soon

[unfocused]

I don't think there's room in the lineup for the 7D AND an entry-level FF DSLR AND the 70D.  There's too much overlap between those markets.

When people write this stuff I always wonder what inside information they have. Because the only justification for saying this is if you know what the break-even point is for manufacturing any particular model of DSLR. Do they need to sell 10,000 units? 100,000 units? 1 million units? I don't know.

What I do know though is that reducing consumer options means leaving buyers on the table for competitors to pick up and no manufacturer wants to do that. Without access to actual manufacturing and development costs, as well as proprietary market research, it is simply impossible to know what constitutes "too much overlap" in any market.

[funkboy]

I don't think there's room in the lineup for the 7D AND an entry-level FF DSLR AND the 70D.  There's too much overlap between those markets.

When people write this stuff I always wonder what inside information they have. Because the only justification for saying this is if you know what the break-even point is for manufacturing any particular model of DSLR. Do they need to sell 10,000 units? 100,000 units? 1 million units? I don't know.

Well, I don't have any insider information but I do hang out with a few MBAs & marketing execs that also happen to be camera geeks, & when somebody releases something new we rap about it.

I agree that if a market analysis indicates that a profit could be turned on a particular model within the necessary period that a product would probably be greenlighted, but one thing that's clear whether we're talking about cameras or cars or computers:  if you can hit two birds with one stone, do it. (also they all start with "c" <grin> ).  They also have a certain number of price brackets in which they compete, and they have always clearly avoided having multiple DSLRs in the same bracket.

& I think that given the technology available, the models in the lineup due for a refresh, and what the competition is up to for Photokina, the 7D successor and the entry-level FF camera will be the same camera, and that said camera will be very competent in fulfilling both roles.

I think "prosumer" users are ready to move to full-frame if the price is right.  One need look no further than the number of threads on this forum à la "does this work on FF," "when I move to FF can I do X," etc. etc.

There's evidence that it's Canon's intention to do so as well, as all EF-S lenses released after the 7D came out are clearly "consumer" and not "prosumer".  It doesn't make sense for them to make high-end or specialty/niche lenses that don't work on their best cameras (& unfortunately primes seem fall into the "specialty" category for Canon's marketdroids these days...).

As I mentioned earlier, the two things that have been holding them back until recently were:

• single digic fast enough to handle 8+ fps from a >= 18mp sensor
• the "reach" factor claimed by APS-C & APS-H telephoto users (a.k.a. pixel density)

The former has been fixed with digic5+, and so far in the small amount of time it's been shipping Canon's bet that the 1DX would appeal to APS-H shooters looks like it will bear fruit.

A baby 1DX for a grand less than a 5DIII would seal the deal.  I'd certainly view it as a significant upgrade over my 40D, and the first camera to come along to warrant such a move that I'm actually willing to spend the money on.

[Richard8971]

I don't believe the 70D will even exist. 2 reasons. 1) The XXD line has been pushed toward semi-pros who use EF-s lenses and Canon will continue the 70D (if there even is one) with an APS-C sensor. Too many XXD users have/own EF-s lenses and will not upgrade to an FF 70D as they won't be able to use some if not all of their lenses!

2) The new firmware update for the 7D is what makes this interesting. Obviously Canon is doing something to keep current 7D owners happy for a while longer. Any 70D body released would have to surpass the current 7D in sensor MP AND features (speed) based on the specs found on current camera bodies. I believe that the merge of the XXD line and the XD line is logical and so would be calling it the 7D X. (X being whatever)

IF Canon had a 70D in the works, why release such an extensive firmware upgrade to the 7D? The firmware update might discourage owners of the 7D from upgrading to the 70D! Doesn't make sense.

The "Canon EOS 7D has become one of the most popular APS-C EOS DSLRs among serious photographers and semi-professionals." (Quote taken from Canon's website on the 7D) Canon will keep the tradition, it's the best marketing decision Canon could make if they merged the XXD line and the XD line.

Canon will release another FF body, it just won't be called the 70D or 7D2.

Just my 2 cents.

D

[funkboy]

IF Canon had a 70D in the works, why release such an extensive firmware upgrade to the 7D? The firmware update might discourage owners of the 7D from upgrading to the 70D! Doesn't make sense.

The "Canon EOS 7D has become one of the most popular APS-C EOS DSLRs among serious photographers and semi-professionals." (Quote taken from Canon's website on the 7D) Canon will keep the tradition, it's the best marketing decision Canon could make if they merged the XXD line and the XD line.

The 7D successor will likely cost over $1000 more than a potential 70D.  The 60D is selling quite well too, though now that the 650D is out with a swivel touchscreen we'll see how that changes.  It's true that the xxxD series are increasingly encroaching on xxD territory, but they continue to be differentiated by pentamirror vs. pentaprism.

For me the main thing that put me off the 60D was the lack of AFMA, which I feel was a silly omission.  They may have been trying to keep it simple or something but it should have at least been activatiable via a custom function.

[marekjoz]

The question is why they make such a complex firmware update in 7d without marketing it's successor?
1. The successor is not ready?
2. The sucessor doesn't provide too much benefit beyond the previous model?
3. Avoiding canibalization of 1dx?
4. R&D focused on mirrorless and cinema, so did nothing in this area?
5. This is the end of devopment of APS-C advanced line?

In my opinion the sensor is not ready yet. The new model should be built around it. Could it be based on 650d sensor? Maybe yes, so the testing in 650d and EOS M.

[funkboy]

The question is why they make such a complex firmware update in 7d without marketing it's successor?

Well, there was a significant 5DII firmware update several months before the release of the mkIII.

The firmware update is most likely a way to ensure continuing sales of the aging 7D ahead of the announcement of its replacement at Photokina (and probably shipment around the usual October-ish timeframe), as well as to keep existing 7D users interested in the camera.  Honestly they're getting pretty good at that.

I also agree with your 5th assessment; I think that the 7D successor will be full-frame and that xxD will be the top  APS-C camera going forward (IF they can nail the "crop users want more reach" dilemma).  We'll see...

[marekjoz]

Well, there was a significant 5DII firmware update several months before the release of the mkIII.

But it was not so advanced as is going to be this one. I'm interested if they could improve the quality of RAWs besides providing new features.

The firmware update is most likely a way to ensure continuing sales of the aging 7D ahead of the announcement of its replacement at Photokina (and probably shipment around the usual October-ish timeframe), as well as to keep existing 7D users interested in the camera.  Honestly they're getting pretty good at that.

Yes, they are doing a very good job in this area. I was about to sell my 7D, now I'm interested to see how those improvements could refresh this camera. Pretty smart job

I also agree with your 5th assessment; I think that the 7D successor will be full-frame and that xxD will be the top  APS-C camera going forward (IF they can nail the "crop users want more reach" dilemma).  We'll see...

So it would be end of life of 7d line in my opinion. I don't think they could offer 7d2 with FF as it would harm the logical order of their shelve. Simply the successor of 7d should get a new name or be transfered to exisitng xxd line.

[BXL]

An entry-level FF body would most likely be called the 3D or 6D or something.

Don't think so... 3D sounds too much like "3D" and would suggest a DSLR somewhere between the 1D and 4D, but not an entry level camera. And 6D? IMO unlikely as well, since Canon used so far odd numbers (1D, 5D & 7D). Thus I would suggest 9D instead of 6D.

[marekjoz]

An entry-level FF body would most likely be called the 3D or 6D or something.

Don't think so... 3D sounds too much like "3D" and would suggest a DSLR somewhere between the 1D and 4D, but not an entry level camera. And 6D? IMO unlikely as well, since Canon used so far odd numbers (1D, 5D & 7D). Thus I would suggest 9D instead of 6D.

17D would be cool, like 15D for next entry FF

[zim]

5fps and a fast SD slot please please please please Canon - same core spec as a 650D
 
(sorry guy's I'm coming from a Rebel)

[mathino]

5fps and a fast SD slot please please please please Canon - same core spec as a 650D
 
(sorry guy's I'm coming from a Rebel)

Im also coming from Rebel  And Im happy to hear anything about new FF because Mk III is out of my range.

I dont think that 5 fps is plausible. 5D Mk III has 6 fps - it is too close. Around 4 is the most probable fps rate. I think, that Canon has made it clear - want fps ? Get 7D. Want FF ? Buy 5D Mk II (or new FF). Want both speed and high ISO ? Buy both or 5D Mk III.

[BXL]

I don't think there's room in the lineup for the 7D AND an entry-level FF DSLR AND the 70D.  There's too much overlap between those markets.  Canon would position this camera as somewhat more expensive than the 7D and at least a grand below the 5D3.  It would be marketed as an upsell for existing 7D and xxD users.

Well, Nikon shows that there is enough room and demand for both, a "professional" D100 - D300S and a "semi-pro" D70 - D7000. Regarding technical features and price, there is enough room for both a 70D and a 7D Mark II.

Add to that the fact that all the EF-S lenses we've seen since after the 7D release are clearly targeted at the consumer/video market.  No primes, no IS update to the 60mm macro, and the 17-55 f/2.8 IS remains the "flagship" EF-S lens & the only one with a constant aperture.  It doesn't make sense for them to develop more "pro-spec" lenses for the high-end consumer market that will mostly be purchased by the owners of one or two "prosumer" type cameras in the lineup.

Why would we need more "flagship" EF-S lenses? The EF-S 10-22mm and 17-55mm only cover the range that is not covered by Canon's L-Lenses. There is only one lens I really miss: an EF-S 22mm f/2.

The new firmware update for the 7D is what makes this interesting. Obviously Canon is doing something to keep current 7D owners happy for a while longer. Any 70D body released would have to surpass the current 7D in sensor MP AND features (speed) based on the specs found on current camera bodies.

Maybe the sensor is better, but not the fps or the AF. The 70D might pull even with the 7D in certain areas (19 cross type AF points) but keeps its polycarbonate body, the single DIGIC, slower fps (~6 fps?), smaller buffer (16 raw images) and single SD-Slot.

The 7D (v2) is faster (8 fps), it has a larger buffer (25 instead of 15 raw images), a magnesium alloy body and a better weather sealing. Since a replacement for the 7D won't be coming too soon, Canon released the firmware update to keep current 7D owners happy.

Don't forget, if a 7D Mark II is released in 2013 and the model cycle of the X0D line stays the same, a future 80D will be announced in 2014. 

I believe that the merge of the X0D line and the XD line is logical and so would be calling it the 7D X. (X being whatever)

I don't believe in a merger of the two lines. Nikon offers since ages two lines (D70-D7000 and D100-D300S) and Canon would not have introduced the 7D just to merge it three years later with the X0D line. This would not make any sense at all.

IF Canon had a 70D in the works, why release such an extensive firmware upgrade to the 7D? The firmware update might discourage owners of the 7D from upgrading to the 70D!

It makes perfectly sense since the extensive firmware update extends the life cycle of the 7D. There are still enough differences between a 70D and a 7D (v2) to target different consumers. The 70D is more of a general camera where as the 7D targets sport and action photographers which are looking for a cheaper alternative to the 1D X.

I dont think that 5 fps is plausible. 5D Mk III has 6 fps - it is too close. Around 4 is the most probable fps rate. I think, that Canon has made it clear - want fps ? Get 7D. Want FF ? Buy 5D Mk II (or new FF). Want both speed and high ISO ? Buy both or 5D Mk III.

Want both, high speed and high ISO? Buy 1D X 

[mathino]

I dont think that 5 fps is plausible. 5D Mk III has 6 fps - it is too close. Around 4 is the most probable fps rate. I think, that Canon has made it clear - want fps ? Get 7D. Want FF ? Buy 5D Mk II (or new FF). Want both speed and high ISO ? Buy both or 5D Mk III.

Want both, high speed and high ISO? Buy 1D X 

...oh, yes. One can buy 1D-X with all 1D-features, speed and high ISO