Canon released the 5DII September 2008 (Photokina)
Significant firmware upgrade was released in March 2011
Replaced with 5DIII March 2012
7D was released September 2009
Significant firmware upgrade announced in June 2012 & released in August
So I would expect them to give the new firmware until at least March to run its course before replacing the camera, possibly as late as next fall if they really milk it the way they did with the 5DII.
60D was released August 2010
60Da released April 2012
XXd cameras usually have an 18 month refresh cycle with 2 years being the longest so far
Delay between 20Da & 30D was June to February.
My question is "what's coming for Photokina?"
If one were to go strictly on pattern analysis, we'd get a 70D for Photokina & a 7D replacement in the spring (but marketing doesn't have a lot to do with pattern analysis).
Canon & Nikon may be playing a cat & mouse game with the D400
and 7D replacement, each waiting to see who'll tip his hand first so that the other can react to it 6 months later. It may well be that Canon feels it's pretty clear that Nikon will be playing the big MP card again with the 24mp Sony sensor rumored to be in the D400 (I believe that's a good assumption), and different factions in engineering & marketing are undecided as to whether to continue to tout the "fewer better MP" line used since the 1DX launch or launch a higher MP direct competitor for it. Potatokina is looking ripe for a D400 announcement, & C & N usually try to avoid releasing directly competing cameras at the same event.
Personally I think that they'll stick with the 18 megapickle formula that has worked well for them so far, because:
- it will enforce the mantra started with the 1DX
- they want their camera to be as different from the D400 as possible (while still competing for the same market segment) so that they don't have to compete on price alone
- 24mp APS-C would punish most of their current lenses. Any of the cheaper zooms or wide primes on such a sensor would just be stupid.
I hope I'm right...