Hopefully their retort will be a 5D-C that records 1080 raw for $4000. But that'd piss off so many purchasers of the original 5D3, that I doubt it will happen.
No, it is coming I am pretty sure.
It won't have RAW, but it will have Canon Log Gamma, like the C300/C500/1DC. basically a "little brother" to the 1DC.
I am 99% convinced that Canon has not released a video-centric camera yet this year. The 5D3 is definitely a stills camera with improved video. The T4i is our same entry level.
I am just worried that Canon will put out the High MP camera instead of the 3D-C, 5D-C, 7D-C because of Nikon's D800.
Just to correct a few things:
1) The 1DC can shoot 1080 HD full frame, or 4K at Super 35 crop - a very standard cine size.
2) The 1DC will have uncompressed HDMI out. Internal codec to cards for proxy editing, external capture for final edit. So will the C500.
3) Some things require hardware bandwith/processor power/memory, and cost a certain amount to start. Some things like HDMI, codecs, etc. are firmware related. Those will show up in the 7D-C.
4) The BMCC is a niche camera. It is great for long form video, cinema, etc. Not so good for Run & Gun, ERG, broadcast, sports, that requires a fast turnaround.
5) The BMCC is a video only camera. I bought my 5D3 for stills. High ISO quality in low light, excellent autofocus. The fact that it shoots the best/tied for best video on a DSLR (along with the D800) is great!
So the question is not: BMCC or 5D#. It is $3,000 for 5DC. Then, can I afford/justify another dedicated, niche video camera? And also need a cancorder like the X1-AH, FS100, etc. too?
6) Canon announced last November that the C300, C500, 1DC would be 4K front end enabled, with better than 8 bit back end coming later. That is what they have done.
7) there are a lot of people using the C300 to make high end documentaries, movies, weddings, etc. right now. They are very happy with the camera.
If you have never spent more than $5,000 for a camera, you might not understand teh economics of the $15K to 25K tools. People buying those are probably in a position where they pay for themselves in 3-6 months. Or, they rent them for a job, and the c ost is a pure "pass through" expense to the client, or amortized against thje 3 week, $50K income from the job, etc.
When I bought my Canon 1DsII for $8,000 in 2004, I used to to completely replace medium format (6x7) film, taht cost me 1 dollar per frame. I shot 40,000 images per year on that for 2 years, then sold the camera for $5,000.
Fro 1998-2004, I spent a minimum of $5,000 a year on film and developing only (no prints, etc.) that I was nopt reimbursed for by clients (for personal projects, etc.) I also bought 2, $3,000+ medium format scanners during thjose 6 years. Computer costs were equal, because I scanned, edited, and printed film from 1998 on. Digital files were 1/10 the size of film scans, requiring a **less** powerful computer.
So my net cost for the 1DsII was $1,500 per year, versus $5,000+$1,000 = $6,000 a year for film & scanner. Basically, it paid for iteslf in 3 months each year - the rest of the year it was "free" to use, saving me $4,500 a year. Plus I rented it out at $300 per day.
We are basically at the same place in video now, as we were in 2004 with the 1DsII. Today you can buy the Canon T4i for $800, with basically the same still image quality and decent auto focus, as the $8,000 camera from 8 years ago.
The same thing will happen with video, this year and next. In teh mean time, things will change every 3-4 months as new cameras are announced, though they may take 6+ months to get to market.
To compare systems, you have to look at the whole "ecosystem" & workflow. A niche camera does not replace an all-around camera. A landscape camera does not replace a sports camera. Log codec will give you 75% of what you get in RAW at much lower bit rates. How good is the auto focus on the BMCC? Etc.
Canon either needs to have high profit margins (C300, C500), or sell 2,000,000+ copies (T4i, 5D3, 7D2, etc.) to justify devoting scarce internal resources to a project.
That is why the niche playes can beat Canon, et al to the market by 6-12 months. They can make an "adequate" profit at a volume of 1,000 to 10,000 units. For Canon, a $5 million profit would only offset a rounding error from their currency arbitrage.
Cheers!
