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Author Topic: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?  (Read 16116 times)

Policar

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #30 on: September 01, 2012, 09:45:56 PM »
"Despite all our "oh I wish I had that feature" comments, the current technology itself is already awesome ... imagine what an Ansel Adams would have done with the current cameras/lenses ... who knows 6 - 8 years from now there could be some very revolutionary advancements that could very well surprise us."[/quote][/b]
Yes. And as I stated: I am absolutely crazy, about the capacity of this cam. Due to rain over here, I cannot go out to do nightskyphotography. This is the next step at ISO 6400 and 12800.  8)
If memory serves me correct, angel Adams didn't even use the top tech of his hey day. You dont need to spend tens of thousands to take a creative picture

No, but I'm taking pictures now that I couldn't have taken just 3 months ago.  So nice to be able to leave your shutter speed at 1/2000 at night at a football game and not have to open up wide.  So nice.

I think that's exactly the trajectory we're following.  8x10 still beats any digital capture; if Adams were shooting today (who am I to speculate?  whatever...) I think he'd still be shooting 8x10 or with a tech camera and MFDB, but would be using photoshop and possibly stitching, hdr, etc.

Cameras aren't getting better at taking pictures under controlled circumstances...view cameras are still better at super high quality landscape and studio stuff.  But in terms of shooting photos under bad circumstances (low light, fast fps, etc.) progress is incredible.

I think we'll be seeing more of a shift toward photography and video coming together.  Super high speed with pixel binning, 24fps full frame, pellicle mirrors, etc.  I would like to see lower read noise on Canon sensors and a better body for tilt/shift work to replace a view camera...but that's unlikely.  The shift from strong bayer filter arrays with RGB to some sort of orange/green/blue thing that's more light sensitive but less color accurate explicates the trend pretty clearly:  IQ isn't what's getting better, flexibility is where we're going.

I don't think high ISO will improve that much since we're reaching the limits, but read noise and highlight rendering are huge.  After working with Alexa footage I can't believe how bad the clippy 5D III seems, particularly in video but also for stills--rough highlights and bad noise patterns.

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #30 on: September 01, 2012, 09:45:56 PM »

87vr6

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #31 on: September 01, 2012, 09:56:53 PM »
ISO? Where we're going we don't need ISO...


pwp

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #32 on: September 02, 2012, 12:14:18 AM »
Wouldn't it be nice if "Moore's Law" applied to iso performance? It sort of does up to a point already...

The marketing departments at Canon & Nikon and the rest would be putting pressure on their respective R&D departments to give them a "bigger number" iso setting to trump the opposition. I think the high end will keep pushing out a few more stops. Wouldn't the marketing dudes love to pitch a million iso Rebel? Just a few years ago 102,400iso seemed just as ludicrous as a million looks today.

On my 1D Mk2n 3200iso was reaching into degraded and professionally compromising territory, for emergency use only. Compare that to a 1DX where 6400iso is the "new" 400iso. Up at the stratospheric level, I'd expect to see the six figure iso settings become entirely usable for day to day work with acceptable noise levels and useful DR.

At some point it's going to plateau out, but we're in the middle of a high iso revolution, so expect developments that would have been science fiction just a few short years ago.

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LetTheRightLensIn

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #33 on: September 02, 2012, 12:17:58 AM »
Hi,
Just picked up the 5D3 this week and got some time to fiddle with it last night.
Upgrading from a 30D I am overwhelmed by the results as I went for the high ISOs 6.4k-102.4k!

a) My first impression:
The 5d3 vs the 30D delievers about 4 stops better high ISOs in RAW, which to me  is a huge step!
51.2k without NR still seems to look better than ISO 3200 on a 30D, both exposed to the right.
ISO 12800 is a no brainer now! Even without NR, if well exposed.
Even a 102.4k image is kind of "doable", although with some heavy NR, but I am geared toward Robert Capa and Robert Frank Style photography, so there is no problem with some noise for me. I do everything in DPP and convert b/ws using an old CS2.
The 5D3 is absolutely worth its money from my point of view and a tremendous camera!

Therefore:
b) What will be the standard high ISO level after the 2 next bodycycles of the 1 and 5 series?
Is it likely, that my extended ISO 102.4k will be the ISO 12.800 or 25600 6-8 years from now, then we would talk about extended ISOs on a 5Dwhatever up to H1 204.8 (like 1Dx now) and H2 409.6k
A 1Dwhatever would even break the million mark by then going up as high as ISO 1.638.400!
Whoever will benefit from such a high ISO...  :o
Does all that seem likely according to porbable upcoming sensor tech improvements or is that too much of wishful thinking?

I am not too much into tech. So, what do you think? Any corrections and contrary/more realistic input is highly appreciated.

Anyway, the 5D3 rocks!  8)
Cheers, Pedro

I think you may be slightly overdoing the progress that has been made since 30D but yeah 5D3 is surely better absolutely no doubt.

Sadly, they are pretty close to the theoretical limit for any sort of tech close to what they are using and even with some crazy tech there actually isn't that much farther to go. So I wouldn't at all expect what you are hoping for. :(

LetTheRightLensIn

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #34 on: September 02, 2012, 12:21:55 AM »
Don't know what will be the standard for high ISO levels in 6 to 8 years from now ... 8 years from now if we can get ISO 52100 to give the same results as ISO 100 than that wold be AWESOME ... wishful thinking? or possibility? only time will tell.

wishful thinking, not possible even with best possible technology

don't forget that light itself is noisy, even if you captured 100% of all of it 100% perfectly with no losses for color filters or anything at all you'd still not get ISO51200 anything like ISO100 of today because the cameras are already so good at this point, something like 50% basic efficiency already.

LetTheRightLensIn

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #35 on: September 02, 2012, 12:27:50 AM »
Where canon does have room to improve many stops is actually at low ISO for dynamic range. They have room to become many stops better in that regard. Nikon/SONY have already largely accomplished that. But at high ISO, as I said, Canon/Nikon are already doing amazingly well, just not too much room for them to get all that much better, basically a single reasonably noticeable nice jump better and that is likely it forever in that regard (unless they go even larger than FF).

agierke

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #36 on: September 02, 2012, 12:40:13 AM »
i shoot alot of weddings and events so you would think that i would be in favor of even higher ISOs but i am actually not....

noise aside, bad light is bad light....higher ISOs will let you get good exposures in very low light but more often than not the quality of light is horrendous. because of this, i always use a Speedlight bounced behind or to the side WITH a radioed strobe head bouncing to bring up the room light. that way i can dial in the quality of light i want and i typically dont go past ISO 2000 with this method. usually i am running between 800 and 1600 and dragging shutter to bleed in any ambient.

i can foresee a High ISO frenzy developing where quality of light considerations are abandoned simply due to the novelty of being able to shoot a ridiculously high ISO. just because you can doesnt always mean you should kinda thing.

dynamic range (only to a slight degree) and better quality ISOs in their current range are much more interesting notions to me than simply "How high can we go?"
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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #36 on: September 02, 2012, 12:40:13 AM »

kaihp

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #37 on: September 02, 2012, 01:09:56 AM »
Wouldn't it be nice if "Moore's Law" applied to iso performance? It sort of does up to a point already...

When it comes to sensor/ISO performance, it's rather Amdahl's Law than Moore's Law that applies.

Essentially Amdahl's law is the law of diminishing returns applied to parallel computer performance, while Moore's Law dictates exponential grow (of number of transistors on a single integrated circuit).

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #38 on: September 02, 2012, 03:31:19 AM »
Don't know what will be the standard for high ISO levels in 6 to 8 years from now ... 8 years from now if we can get ISO 52100 to give the same results as ISO 100 than that wold be AWESOME ... wishful thinking? or possibility? only time will tell.

wishful thinking, not possible even with best possible technology

don't forget that light itself is noisy, even if you captured 100% of all of it 100% perfectly with no losses for color filters or anything at all you'd still not get ISO51200 anything like ISO100 of today because the cameras are already so good at this point, something like 50% basic efficiency already.
You just murdered my dream ;D
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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #39 on: September 02, 2012, 04:34:36 AM »
Whoever will benefit from such a high ISO...  :o

I think there will be a significant iso gain in the future, that's because Canon cut IS from their new 24-70ii - and that lens is designed to be sold for a long time to come as it's their new "standard" zoom. And the Canon techs will have more knowledge of future possibilities than us mere mortals.

And-Rew

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #40 on: September 02, 2012, 05:31:40 AM »
I suspect this situation will be down to what the R&D/ Marketing bods consider to be the most important feature for that time.

At one time, it was all about fps, AF and/ or megapixels. Now it seems to be about IQ, DR and ISO.

Without a doubt, the current 61pt AF seems to have satisfied most people - and most are happy with the 18-22mp range (note i said 'most' not 'all').

DR, IQ and ISO seem to be very much about the capabilities of the sensor combined with the light processing software used with the sensors.

The ability to improve the sensitivity of a sensor seems almost a given, working on how technology seems to improve. So, that would imply that the software needed to maximise the effectiveness of the newer sensor technology will be the guiding factor.

Will we see ISO listed at 408k or even 816k? I think we will - as H1 & H2 settings on the current 1D series model(s), because ultimately - for some strange reason - a whole load of people seem to want the ability to photograph a black cat in a coal cellar without a tripod or flash.

I like to push the ISO envelope as much as the next person (having spent most of my life doing shift work and using a camera at 3am frequently), but even in film days I found I could push a roll of 3200 to 12800 and hand hold at 1/60th second without too much effort. ISO 6400 on the 5D2 produced a much more acceptable image noise/ grain  wise and with the IS on some of the lenses, allowed me to shoot as slow as 1/20th hand held.

So I'm more than happy with what is currently available - but I wouldn't complain if I were offered more  ;)

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #41 on: September 02, 2012, 05:32:54 AM »
Whoever will benefit from such a high ISO...  :o

I think there will be a significant iso gain in the future, that's because Canon cut IS from their new 24-70ii - and that lens is designed to be sold for a long time to come as it's their new "standard" zoom. And the Canon techs will have more knowledge of future possibilities than us mere mortals.
Interesting view point ... could very well be true.
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dr croubie

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #42 on: September 02, 2012, 07:49:56 AM »
I think that's exactly the trajectory we're following.  8x10 still beats any digital capture


Interesting you should say that.
Read this, it pretty much says the opposite (although yes, 8*10 doesn't cost more than a car). Seems the biggest problems are in the lenses, LF just doesn't resolve as much as MF or FF lenses. But if that's all you can get, that's what you have to compare...
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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #42 on: September 02, 2012, 07:49:56 AM »

Viggo

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #43 on: September 02, 2012, 09:54:35 AM »
I would much rather see ISO 25 and less, without any loss in highlight range.
Hmm, interesting!

+1000 I've been thinking that for quite a while now. To use my large apertures in any light would be great. shoot at 1,2 and the 1/8000s goes out pretty quickly and to fiddle with ND's craps out the VF and focus. I have NEVEREVER used above ISO 25600, and that was only to test it out, 12800 is more than enough for me, and that leaves 4 stops available iso on my 1d. I would very much like to trade those in to have iso 3 ;D
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pedro

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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #44 on: September 02, 2012, 11:43:37 AM »
Therefore:
b) What will be the standard high ISO level after the 2 next bodycycles of the 1 and 5 series?
Is it likely, that my extended ISO 102.4k will be the ISO 12.800 or 25600 6-8 years from now, then we would talk about extended ISOs on a 5Dwhatever up to H1 204.8 (like 1Dx now) and H2 409.6k
A 1Dwhatever would even break the million mark by then going up as high as ISO 1.638.400!
Whoever will benefit from such a high ISO...  :o



We are approaching the point where the camera records more than the eye can see.

If you follow the link (I can't seem to get the actual imagine to imbed), you'll find a section from a shot I took with my new 5D3 out the living room window in the dark of night, handheld, at 102K.  Nothing terribly interesting (and rather noisy, although as someone who used 2475 Recording film for years, I don't find it objectionable) unless I tell you that the gap between the tree and bush seen on the left side of the photo was not visible to the naked eye.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/34970367@N03/7909554934#

I hope they put more effort put into improvement in noise and IQ than ISO for a while before continuing to ever more sensitive sensors (which I also look forward to...we're almost to night vision; I look forward to full daylight regardless of the available light level).

More realistically, DxOMark shows the 5DIII as about 2 stops better than the 30D. The 5DIII gets an extra 4/3 of a stop because of the larger full frame sensor, so technology has only moved by about 2/3 of a stop.

That doesn't seem right; if that's really what DxOMark shows, then it isn't as credible a tool as it is given credit for.

Good points here. Quality improvement at high ISOs is paramount. If improvement manages to produce 25600ish ISO 102k within 6-8 years, that'd be great.
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Re: What will be the standard high ISO levels 6 to 8 years from now?
« Reply #44 on: September 02, 2012, 11:43:37 AM »