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Author Topic: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]  (Read 85864 times)

jrista

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #135 on: September 29, 2012, 02:18:05 AM »
Just because it's a noisy signal, doesn't mean it's not a signal. It has something to do with Canon, and where there is smoke there is fire.  If the 5D3 was killing it, I doubt we'd see Canon's stock fall off so dramatically against the benchmarks. And if you look at the chart, the slide begins right after the release of the 5D3.

Either way, a stock price falling is a sign of trouble for a company. If a company is making bad decisions overall, there is a greater probability that any one decision, no matter how small, was bad.

Stocks are a really tricky thing though. A lot of industry is cyclical, and ironically the DSLR industry tends to be cyclical in overlapping generations for one brand or another. Canon is currently in a downtrend right now in their cycle, while Nikon is currently starting an uptrend. Such statistics don't always stay the same, and cycle period can change quickly. But things aren't that simple, either. Canon has had a lot of other factors to deal with, from natural disasters to recent closures of plants because of things like riots in China. Canon is very sensitive to their market share, and interruptions to production, even minor ones, can mean a fairly significant hit to their bottom line...and the bottom line is one of the most significant effectors of stock price there is as it affects various other statistics and indicators, like P/E ratio, dividend and yield, etc.

On that note, and to the original comment that started this tangent on stock prices...I don't recall the 5D III having particularly lackluster sales at a $3500 price tag. As far as I saw, it was flying off the shelves as fast as the D800, and more of them sold than the D800. I believe part of that is due to the fact that Canon tends to have a stronger supply chain than Nikon, but the 5D III has been extremely popular among wedding photographers. I wouldn't be inclined to point to the 5D III as the sole cause of Canon's declining stock price. Canon is a huge company, and while they may not be as large as Sony in sheer scale, they have their fingers in a LOT of markets related to imaging, photography, optics, and a variety of related electronics and devices. Any one of the major sectors of their extended empire could be affecting their stock price, or many, or all of them. Here in our little world on CR, we see Canon as lagging behind a bit technologically speaking. I'm not really sure thats how the broader world sees them.

As someone who lightly trades stocks myself, Canon is one of the stocks I watch. Most of the stock news related to Canon is more broad-market related, japan index related, than specifically related to the performance of the company itself. I believe Canon is a major company in Japan's major indices, so much like similar companies in the US it can ride the index waves up and down. Lot of pressure on Japanese stock indices lately. Most of the news related directly to the performance of the company seems to be generally good, including a variety of M&A news. However mergers and acquisitions can cause odd behavior in a stock, as people trade in or out of their positions in lieu of share swaps or purchases, dilution of stock, etc. (although I'm not sure any of the M&A news for Canon is really serious.)

Anyway...trying to guage a company like Canon in the context here on CR can be a really tricky thing. Hundreds of factors affect a stock price for a company like Canon. I wouldn't read into a 30% decline in price as solely due to what some may consider a lackluster release year or a presumably high introduction price. Canon still has a LOT going for them, and overall I would call the 5D III and 1D X strengths (yet to see how the 6D fits into things...that one might indeed be a dud! :P)

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #135 on: September 29, 2012, 02:18:05 AM »

simonxu11

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #136 on: September 29, 2012, 04:34:58 AM »
A new rumor about Canon’s high resolution DSLR (46MP are rumored) showed up at NL.

    In an update to the high MP info, we’re told [...] that a camera will eventually appear in a 1D X derived body, in the same way as the 1D C. The information said that the actual designation was not known, but it would essentially be a ’1 series’. There was also a warning that there would be a long wait between any ‘preview’ and any cameras [...] being annouced and subsequently shipping.


http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/cameras/Canon_1D_Xs.html

DavidRiesenberg

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #137 on: September 29, 2012, 05:08:06 AM »
If the 5D3 was killing it, I doubt we'd see Canon's stock fall off so dramatically against the benchmarks. And if you look at the chart, the slide begins right after the release of the 5D3.

Nikon's stock has also fallen 15% since April so what does tell us?

It is impossible to isolate such a marginal product like an expensive pro camera as the culprit. On the other hand, something going wrong with the bread and butter income (entry DSLRs, P&Ss, kit lenses) could potentially be factor. But even then it would have to be something very dramatic and clear cut like a factory blowing up. Lackluster DXO results do not cause panic on the trade floor.

Marsu42

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #138 on: September 29, 2012, 05:16:58 AM »
There was also a warning that there would be a long wait between any ‘preview’ and any cameras [...] being annouced and subsequently shipping.

That's interesting because it would prove that Canon sees the high mp d800 as a threat and they don't think that "20mp is enough" for everyone after all. And it shows that Canon is mainly protective and concerned about their pro user base, and doesn't really care about some low- to midrange buyers switching brands.

Kernuak

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #139 on: September 29, 2012, 05:31:13 AM »
Another way to look at it are the price drops from the MSRP, which can be used to indicate relative sales/demand. In the UK, the D800 has dropped from £2599 (although it was originally announced at £2399 before Nikon said there had been a system error in the pricing) to £2073.98, a drop of 20.2%. In comparison, the 5D MkIII has dropped from £3000 to £2658, a drop of 11.1%. To me, that would suggest that sales of the 5D MkIII are holding up better then the D800. Of course, that could be expected due to the shear numbers of 5D MkII owners, a significant proportion of whom would be interested in an upgrade, in addition to any Canon crop sensor camera owners, who may either upgrade or add to existing cameras. I suspect that any hobbyist sports or wildlife photographers would be particularly interested in the improved image quality over a crop camera, now that they have access to a much improved AF system. Chances are, 7D owners in particular have a significant number or EF (if not L) lenses already at the telephoto end.
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canon816

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #140 on: September 29, 2012, 09:59:04 AM »
Or that the nikkei is down 15% and there is a broad global economic slowdown and it has nothing to do with canon. You are all speculating way too much...

bdunbar79

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #141 on: September 29, 2012, 10:30:20 AM »
Or that the nikkei is down 15% and there is a broad global economic slowdown and it has nothing to do with canon. You are all speculating way too much...

That was more or less the point I was getting at.  Way too much narrow thinking and too many bad economics lessons going on here in this thread.
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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #141 on: September 29, 2012, 10:30:20 AM »

canon816

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #142 on: September 29, 2012, 12:24:33 PM »
Or that the nikkei is down 15% and there is a broad global economic slowdown and it has nothing to do with canon. You are all speculating way too much...

That was more or less the point I was getting at.  Way too much narrow thinking and too many bad economics lessons going on here in this thread.

+1... moving along now.... Who out there is interested in this camera?  Any excitement?  What kind of photography do you do and why would you like one of these in your Kit?

jrista

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #143 on: September 29, 2012, 12:31:47 PM »
Or that the nikkei is down 15% and there is a broad global economic slowdown and it has nothing to do with canon. You are all speculating way too much...

That was more or less the point I was getting at.  Way too much narrow thinking and too many bad economics lessons going on here in this thread.

+1... moving along now.... Who out there is interested in this camera?  Any excitement?  What kind of photography do you do and why would you like one of these in your Kit?

I'm very interested in it. I'm not really sure I'm excited yet. The rumors coming out are intriguing, and it sounds like Canon is starting to compete again. But, they are still all CR1's. I'll get excited when we start seeing CR2's with the same information, and I'll be particularly excited if the rumors about advanced cooling and low read noise actually reach CR2 phase! :D

These days I do almost nothing but bird and wildlife photography, with a little macro thrown in. With a 46.1mp camera, particularly one that has improved DR, I'd definitely get back into landscapes. I was really hoping the 5D III would be another big megapixel camera in the 28-30mp range (which I would have been more than happy with), but 46mp is even better. I'd probably also pick up a TS-E 17mm and TS-E 24mm lens as well (hopefully Canon releases Mark II replacements for the 45mm and 90mm TS-E lenses soon!!)

HurtinMinorKey

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #144 on: September 29, 2012, 01:49:22 PM »
Or that the nikkei is down 15% and there is a broad global economic slowdown and it has nothing to do with canon. You are all speculating way too much...

That was more or less the point I was getting at.  Way too much narrow thinking and too many bad economics lessons going on here in this thread.

It's doing worse than it's competitors. It's doing worse than it's own market index(Nikkei). Like i said before, it's not a neutral signal, noisy maybe, but not neutral. You can pretend it is, but them you're just in denial.

Otherwise, have fun pretending you know something about economics.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2012, 01:51:37 PM by HurtinMinorKey »

bdunbar79

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #145 on: September 29, 2012, 01:53:14 PM »
Or that the nikkei is down 15% and there is a broad global economic slowdown and it has nothing to do with canon. You are all speculating way too much...

That was more or less the point I was getting at.  Way too much narrow thinking and too many bad economics lessons going on here in this thread.

It's doing worse than it's competitors. It's doing worse than it's own market index(Nikkei). Like i said before, it's not a neutral signal, noisy maybe, but not neutral. You can pretend it is, but them you're just in denial.

Otherwise, have fun pretending you know something about economics.

Who cares?
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bdunbar79

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #146 on: September 29, 2012, 02:02:13 PM »
Just because it's a noisy signal, doesn't mean it's not a signal. It has something to do with Canon, and where there is smoke there is fire.  If the 5D3 was killing it, I doubt we'd see Canon's stock fall off so dramatically against the benchmarks. And if you look at the chart, the slide begins right after the release of the 5D3.

Either way, a stock price falling is a sign of trouble for a company. If a company is making bad decisions overall, there is a greater probability that any one decision, no matter how small, was bad.

This is the horrific ecomonics lesson I was referring to.  And yes, it's troublesome.  You first relate it to the release of the 5D Mark III (1st paragraph), which makes no sense but let's not go there.  THEN, you try to generalize the stock price falling to the overall company performance and not necessarily the 5D3 but a whole slew of other things (2nd paragraph), which, negates your first statement and indicates that it can't possibly be just because of the 5D3.  Which it can't be, but that's not what you said, then you sort of said it, and now nobody knows what the heck you're talking about and probably no longer cares.

Once again, can you show us data that directly implicates the 5D Mark III to Canon's stock prices falling?  Out of all of the huge line of Canon products, it must be from the 5D Mark III right?  If so, show us.  Otherwise, this is just a load of garbage like most of this thread has turned in to.

If you knew all of the different factors that affect a company's stock performance, you wouldn't be making any of these statements.  No offense against you, but you went personal in your last statement which also indicates your lack of class.
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canon816

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #147 on: September 29, 2012, 02:38:25 PM »
Otherwise, have fun pretending you know something about economics.

Actually... I have a degree hanging on my wall in... you guessed it:  "Economics."

But really... who cares...

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #147 on: September 29, 2012, 02:38:25 PM »

Marsu42

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #148 on: September 29, 2012, 03:12:07 PM »
Actually... I have a degree hanging on my wall in... you guessed it:  "Economics."

In this case you are even more at a disadvantage to understand economics :-> ... at least my favorite sitcom "Yes, Minister" says so. I studied economics for some semesters and one of the thing I remember most vividly is that economists hardly can agree on anything, esp. when it comes to predictions or even advice...

canon816

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #149 on: September 29, 2012, 03:19:41 PM »
Actually... I have a degree hanging on my wall in... you guessed it:  "Economics."

In this case you are even more at a disadvantage to understand economics :-> ... at least my favorite sitcom "Yes, Minister" says so. I studied economics for some semesters and one of the thing I remember most vividly is that economists hardly can agree on anything, esp. when it comes to predictions or even advice...

 ;D 

I personally am not super interested in this camera.  My big thing is high ISO noise quality.  I shoot in low light often and need fast shutter speeds and I worry that this many pixels crammed into a sensor would not allow for clean high iso images.   Also, I'm not sure about processing files this large.  I do a lot of panormaas and some HDR and files with the 5DIII make my system bog down when I create images that are over a gig each.  I'm sure that processing power will catch up over the next couple years however.  It will be interesting to see if this camera comes to production as the rumors currently indicate.

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Re: 46.1mp Canon DSLR Previewed at PhotoPlus 2012? [CR1]
« Reply #149 on: September 29, 2012, 03:19:41 PM »