What could be coming?
There is a lot going on in Canon's war room about what to do with PMA 2009. As we all know, the DSLR market in 2009 is expected to fall off a fair bit. The predicted rebound will be coming in 2010.
On a scale of 1-5, which cameras are likely to get a replacement at PMA.
Rebel XSi (Released Jan. 2008)
Canon had committed to a 1 year product cycle. However, that could be held off until the fall of 2009.
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Likelihood of a replacement at PMA: 3.5
Rebel XS (Released Jun. 2008)
There was a possibility of this being reduxed earlier than one year, consider that a dead rumour now. The XS will be replaced in the fall.
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Likelihood of replacement at PMA: 1
A New Rebel
There is a chance Canon could add a third Rebel to their lineup. This Rebel would add HD video, VGA LCD, 15.1mp, DIGIC IV. Sony has done well with their strategy.
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Likelihood of a new Rebel at PMA: 3
40D (Released August, 2007)
Canon had committed to this lineup being on a 1 year product cycle. The 50D proved that. Will Canon keep the 40D going beyond the new year? It's unlikely. I will keep a close eye on 40D stocks. Could a 60D come at PMA to add HD Video to the class? No one I spoke to thinks so.
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Likelihood of a 60D at PMA: 1
Likelihood the 40D remains current beyond PMA: 2.5
A new Full Frame
The fabled EOS 3D. We talk about it every 6 months. Is it coming at PMA? Don't bet on it. Let's see if Canon has been able to meet the demands for the 5D Mark II.
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Likelihood of a 3D at PMA: 1.5
1D Mark IV (February, 2007)
Everyone wants a new one to showup ASAP. I'm receiving no information that Canon is about to launch a new 1D camera. I don't think the worries of the economy would affect a model like this, anyone that can afford one will buy one. They will obviously be redoing the autofocus system and developing a new sensor. It's tough to think that they could do that in 2 years, especially after the added development time to fix the 1D3.
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Likelihood of a 1D Mark III replacement at PMA: 3 (It's a rating that doesn't say much, but no one is saying much.)
Flagship P&S [CR2.5]
I am hearing rumors of a new CMOS based flagship P&S camera. Something that will be a departure from the G series. That's really all the info I have at the moment. Think along the lines of the LX3, with industry leading noise & lens performance. It won't be cheap.
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Likelihood of a flagship P&S at PMA: 3.5
Lenses:
There will be 2 launched at PMA [CR3]. That all but assures us a new camera body is coming.
1001 Noisy Cameras did their predictions a few days ago. Read them [here]
cr
18 Comments
@Dorkage
I really cannot yet “prove” that there’s something wrong with my lens, just some more or less conclusive clues.
I did some extensive series of test shots with “real-world” macro targets (mainly flowers), which never seemed as crisp I would like them to have. As a consequence, I printed out an ISO chart and made test pictures with it, from a tripod, using mirror lockup, disabling IS etc., all to disable any chance for camera shake. After perfectly (as far as possible with what I have at hand) aligning the stuff, I made three shots at each of focal lengths indicated on the lens (24, 35, 50, 70 and 105), for different aperture values (4, 5.6, 8 ) and — and thats important — one series with “normal” AF, and anther with LiveView “Contrast AF”, which is slow but will usually be more precise. I reseted focus and refocused after every shot
Unfortunately, the results were not consistent. I had a few cases where standard AF would obviously misfocus, as the contrast AF pics were considerably sharper. But it doesn’t happen all the time. I could however convince myself that there is definitely a problem with chromatic aberration around the 105mm setting with my lens, CAs are about 5-6 pixels on my 450D. This is apparently atypical for this lens, which is reported by several testsites (slrgear, photozone.de) to show “above average” CA at the wide end, but not at the tele end.
I made the same shots with two of my other lenses, the el cheapo kit lens, and a Tamron 28-300 VC. In particular the Tamron looked considerably better with regard to CA.
I am exchanging the lens this week, my retailer will ship me another sample.
I think we’ll see two cameras.
First off a 500D. 12-15mp, 9pt AF, VGA screen, HD-Video and possibly with a revised body design.
Secondly, it’ll be the 1D4. All new AF, VGA, HD-Video, 15-20mp FF and with some control tweaks.
Lenses are a tough one. 24-70/2.8 IS would be a sensible gamble but if the 1D4 is being released, a revised 100-400 would be a sweet accompaniment.
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