Some predictions from Thom Hogan
Nikon superstar and generally well spoken Thom Hogan has some predictions in regards to the industry in 2009.

This is what he sees from Canon:

1) 50/50 on 1D Mark III Replacement.
2) “A bigger than FX sensor Canon is the one special thing that could show up in 2009.”
3) To retain market leadership at around 40% of dSLR with the sales of Rebels. (Nikon 37%, Sony 13% currently)

I haven't heard anything concrete about Canon going into medium format. When I do, I'll talk about it here.

I fully believe the 1D Mark III will get a redo in 2009, it may not be until the end of 2009 however. Everyone I speak too doesn't think Canon is too eager to release the camera until it is truly ready and proper QC has been done. There is a new AF system in the works but no where near completed.

Thom's article


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  1. There is one thing to consider, the 2010 Winter Olympics in February 2010. Personally I would think that Canon would want to prove to the world that they ARE the leader and come out with something to best the D3 in all ways and hopefully have time for the photographers to fully field test it before boarding the plane to Vancouver.

    While just the fact that the Olympics are in town doesn’t mean that Canon or anyone will have their newest toys available, this would be a crowning effort for Canon to re-take the market without question as the 1D Mark III replacement, whatever it is called, is the ideal tool for this venue. I could be very wrong though.

  2. Michael, do you think we will get the 5DII by 2010 ?

    Just kidding, but I’m impressed by Nikon’s share of the dSLR market right now. I hope that Canon won’t help them more in 2009 than they did in 2008.

    Interesting paper from Hogan.

  3. Hi Rox,

    I have to admit when I read your reply I got a big laugh. You of course know the reason, from what I am reading it may be pushing 2010 before we get it ;-)

    I agree. Nikon has kicked butt with a fine product. The D3 is a great tool. I have not personally used a 1D Mark III where I have a D3. I have heard many good things about the Mark III but the AF issue is certainly haunting Canon.

    I sincerely hope that Canon comes out with a great new tool (whatever it’s name) that gives Nikon a run for their money. Competition is good for all of us. It is now Canon’s turn. I hope they have a good product and has gone through serious QC before it hits the shelf so we don’t have another issue like the AF problem. Depending on who I read the 1D Mark III is resolved or still exists, I personally don’t know.

    I hope we see good news, on many fronts, in 2009!

  4. I really really really hope the 1D III is replaced early next year. I won’t have this kind of disposable income for much longer, so the timing needs to be good for me to justify the 1 series. Come on Canon.. don’t let me down (again)

  5. Thom Hogan also said he thought Canon would have 2009 as a pretty quiet year, and then come out with a bang in 2010.

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