Canon EOS R

Canon thinks the camera market will drop by another 50% over the next two years

In an article published by the Nikkei news, Canon’s president Fujio Mitarai talks about the future of the camera business and where it’s heading over the next couple of years.

Canon thinks that the camera market will shrink another 50% over the next 2 years, which is changing some strategies at Canon on how to deal with the change in the marketplace.

  • Canon’s camera sales have declined 10% a year over the last few years.
  • The global market for interchangeable lens cameras is about 10 million units a year.
  • Mirrorless camera sales are not adding to the market, they’re merely replacing DSLR sales. This is likely why Canon and Nikon waited so long to enter the full frame mirrorless segment. Putting forth the R&D to cannibalize yourself probably gets the bean counters in a tizzy.
  • Canon will shift its business to more corporate sales than consumer retail sales
  • Canon obviously recognizes what Smartphones have done to the sales of entry-level cameras, but Canon thinks they’ll continue to sell 5-6 million prosumer and professional cameras once we’ve reached the bottom of the decline.
  • Canon will focus more on industrial, surveillance and medical imaging.

All of this points to an amalgamation of DSLR lines to offset the additional EOS R system cameras that are coming. This also tells us that Canon isn’t likely in any sort of rush to get 3-4 EOS R cameras to the marketplace, especially when the market is still declining.

I believe this is a worst-case scenario that Canon is strategizing for and that innovation and great new products are still coming over the next few years.

mb66energy

EOS 6D MK II
Dec 18, 2011
1,142
110
Germany
www.MichaelBockhorst.de
Same procedure as elsewhere: Very low cost systems for the masses and some really expensive high end systems for the pros? Hopefully not.

Maybe some consequences of the intransparent camera market today - what's missing are some less feature laden cameras with excellent IQ. I bought 200D and M50 for their great sensors and DPAF capability but they are full of features while lacking some ergonomics. While the 200D has no safety shift (a really interesting feature for emergencies in Av and Tv) the M50 has it while they omitted the cable release in the M50 but it's existing in the 200D. Both lack the possibility to set a Image stabilizer limit e.g. 1...5EV for shutter speed - instead it cranks up the ISO.

Hopefully they will release a good FF mirrorless which is on the slow side (not AF wise!) but sports great IQ. The existing EOS R is too expensive for my application and at that price (or 300 EUR more) I would expect a FF 4k mode in a 2018 camera.
 
Reactions: Architect1776

Del Paso

M3 Singlestroke
Aug 9, 2018
315
270
Does it still make sense, for Panasonic, to enter a declining market? Less cake, more slices...
Should Canon try to increase their market share with additional and competitive models instead of slamming the brakes on? Anyway, apart from Canon, nobody knows what their real strategy will be. Unlike most youtubers, they are market -experienced. We can only wait and see...and remain confident!
 

LDS

EOS 6D MK II
Sep 14, 2012
1,465
89
Maybe some consequences of the intransparent camera market today
Many contradictory statements, yours... you want a camera with less features, but then complain about the missing ones. Great IQ and fast AF but at a cheap price point. Have the cake and eat it...
 

CanoKnight

EOS 80D
Jul 7, 2014
106
28
Innovation at Canon stopped in 2008. From 2000-2008 they were running rings around every other camera brand. But in 2008 they decided to focus their resources on higher margin systems and let EOS stay afloat with the barest minimum. Soon other companies moved in where Canon left off and Canon began to realize their strategy wasn't working. And now they are blaming what ?
I will make a prediction for Mr Mitarai. You sir, bet heavily on the cinemaEOS system . That's why your EOS line had laughable video offerings compared to the competition. Now watch as Indie filmmakers and journalists move away from clunky cinemaEOS type video cameras to mirrorless. The coming Panasonic S1/S1R is just the beginning.
 

JonSnow

EOS 80D
Sep 10, 2018
146
87
Should Canon try to increase their market share with additional and competitive models instead of slamming the brakes on? Anyway, apart from Canon, nobody knows what their real strategy will be. Unlike most youtubers, they are market -experienced. We can only wait and see...and remain confident!

it depends.... as long as hardcore canon fanboys buy cameras that miss features.
i guess it is cheaper to produce cameras with the same old sensors (no BSI, not stacked) and without 4K features that would need a beefier processor.

reusing old stuff sure creates higher profits than developing like crazy in a shrinking market.... when the customers buy your stuff anyway.

but you have to be a canon fanboy or shareholder to appreciated this strategy....
 

knight427

EOS T7i
Aug 27, 2018
78
89
Keeping investor expectations low so anything other than worst scenario will beat their expectations.
Not really, they are justifying investments in other areas in order to meet their growth goals. If they just claimed a 50% drop was coming, and left it at that, investors would dump their stock. There might be some sand bagging in that estimate, but I don't think anyone really knows what the right number is, just that the direction is clear and it seems irreversible. A corporation must grow exponentially forever, when a market-wide contraction comes, you either find new markets (like Fujifilm in the dying days of film) or perish.
 

nchoh

EOS 80D
Apr 3, 2018
198
103
Calgary
it depends.... as long as hardcore canon fanboys buy cameras that miss features.
i guess it is cheaper to produce cameras with the same old sensors (no BSI, not stacked) and without 4K features that would need a beefier processor.

reusing old stuff sure creates higher profits than developing like crazy in a shrinking market.... when the customers buy your stuff anyway.

but you have to be a canon fanboy or shareholder to appreciated this strategy....
There's not much you can do. You can choose Canon who is more conservative and has after many decades proven that it can survive and be the best in photography, or you can choose Sony which has over the years shown itself to be fickle in which products it holds or drops. Among others, Sony dropped personal stereos and TV when they once held a dominating lead. I wouldn't trust Sony to continue selling cameras in the future just as I wouldn't trust Samsung to continue selling cameras.
 

GoldWing

Canon EOS 1DX
Oct 19, 2013
58
35
Los Angeles, CA
en.wikipedia.org
I expect nothing less than solid, secure and loyal support from Canon to those of us who make our lives by using their equipment. As a multiple 1DXMKII owner and with over a 100K investment in glass, I know I can depend on Canon to innovate and keep me at the top of my game. With the PanAm Games coming up this Aug, Hi-Winds in July and The Olympics in 2020 many of us are ready to invest in Canon over and over again as the new 1DXMKIII takes us into the future. Canon's loyal customers are here and CPS does a GREAT job keeping us up and running at each event and every single day we go to work! Thank you Canon!!
 

PerKr

EOS T7i
Jul 11, 2018
52
37
Sverige
additional models? no way...their lineup is already very complicated...
agree. Now that people seem to have stopped replacing their compacts with DSLRs (and mirrorless alternatives) and instead use their smartphones maybe we will see manufacturers return to simpler lineups where each step up the ladder is obvious and motivated.
 

neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
Jul 21, 2010
23,860
1,022
it depends.... as long as hardcore canon fanboys buy cameras that miss features.
The majority of the ILC market are the Rebel/xxxD cameras and the EOS M line, so you’re saying that those buyers are ‘hardcore Canon fanboys’?


but you have to be a canon fanboy or shareholder to appreciated this strategy...
Or someone who likes taking good pictures.

YKNJS.
 

neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
Jul 21, 2010
23,860
1,022
Innovation at Canon stopped in 2008. From 2000-2008 they were running rings around every other camera brand. But in 2008 they decided to focus their resources on higher margin systems and let EOS stay afloat with the barest minimum. Soon other companies moved in where Canon left off and Canon began to realize their strategy wasn't working. And now they are blaming what ?
Do you know that Canon’s ILC market share is higher now than in 2008 when they ‘stopped innovating’? Does increasing popularity comprise ‘staying afloat with the barest minimum’? Does it hurt when reality slaps your opinions in the face?