No, it isn’t.The above graph makes the colossal assumptions that both reporting and testing are consistent, available and across every social demographics.
IE it's worthless.
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No, it isn’t.The above graph makes the colossal assumptions that both reporting and testing are consistent, available and across every social demographics.
IE it's worthless.
Dictatorships are much better at responding quickly. Mussolini's trains ran on time. Democracies are messy and inefficient. I think I still prefer democracy, even if it seems that half or more of the country prefers otherwise.
Yes, the trains to Auschwitz, Buchenwald, etc., ran on time. Give me a break. You have zero data as to train schedules for various countries and forms of government.Dictatorships are much better at responding quickly. Mussolini's trains ran on time. Democracies are messy and inefficient. I think I still prefer democracy, even if it seems that half or more of the country prefers otherwise.
Yes, the trains to Auschwitz, Buchenwald, etc., ran on time. Give me a break. You have zero data as to train schedules for various countries and forms of government.
The above graph makes the colossal assumptions that both reporting and testing are consistent, available and across every social demographics.
IE it's worthless.
Oh come on. You have no way of knowing whether he's a ferroequinologist or not...Yes, the trains to Auschwitz, Buchenwald, etc., ran on time. Give me a break. You have zero data as to train schedules for various countries and forms of government.
Where can I learn the differences between R5 and R6? I just want to know when should I break the piggy bank. Thanks for your time!
If you look at his post history, it’s mostly clickbait carefully designed to go viral.MBA from Stanford, that's pretty good. Before that, he got his BSc and MSc in Industrial Engineering. Take that, and the incredibly detailed and on point article he wrote extrapolating from reasonable data. To me the article made it's arguments and addressed the shortcomings inherent in derived statistics.
Who are you, again?
It’s a bad flu season this year. Issue is that plenty people have immunity to flu; while no one has immunity to covid19. It will spread very quickly. Higher mortality rate, even with conservative estimates, And spreads faster. Flu won’t be killing more people in a about 2 weeks (given the current growth curves)Thanks for posting this. If accurate, and I have no reason to believe it isn't, this really puts things into perspective. Interesting that seasonal flu is killing 16 times as many people every day.
There is one thing that chart is missing(I assume). And that is those who contract the virus but show no symptoms or such mild symptoms that they do not ever go to the doctor. I have heard suggestions(whether they are accurate or not remains to be seen) that the number of infected who have such a mild response(yet have the ability to carry and spread the virus) could be VERY VERY high. If that is true then the grey bars on that graph are extremely innacurate.In Huwai that assumption is more the case right now than anywhere else. Only after the two lines converge can the details for the early stages be accurately known. It's also in line with results from other previous outbreaks/pandemics.
It shows in orange bars the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.
The grey bars show the true daily coronavirus cases. The Chinese CDC found these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.
Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.
What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.
On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.
Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.
The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.
Up until Jan 23rd, when Wuhan closes, you can look at the grey graph: it’s growing exponentially. True cases were exploding. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On Jan 24th, when another 15 cities shut down, the number of true cases (again, grey) grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached, and it has gone down ever since.
Note that the orange (official) cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like this thing was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the cases were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor more, and the system to identify them was stronger.
There is one thing that chart is missing(I assume). And that is those who contract the virus but show no symptoms or such mild symptoms that they do not ever go to the doctor. I have heard suggestions(whether they are accurate or not remains to be seen) that the number of infected who have such a mild response(yet have the ability to carry and spread the virus) could be VERY VERY high. If that is true then the grey bars on that graph are extremely innacurate.
If you look at his post history, it’s mostly clickbait carefully designed to go viral.
There is some good data in there, but there are also a bunch of assumptions that are baked in to later charts and conclusions. Don’t treat it as science, BUT, the key takeaways are the same as from the experts (he’s just repeating their message)
Being careful now means less cases; less cases means the health networks are not overwhelmed; functional health networks means less deaths for critical cases.
Fair enough. In that case it probably is a fairly accurate representation and those who actually have had it but not been tested are perhaps not as overwhelming as suggested.The graph is for the province of Hubai only. Nowhere else in the world. There has been extensive testing of everyone who had contact with those who displayed symptoms and tested positive. For those who tested positive, everyone they had contact with were also tested, whether they presented symptoms or not. There has been extensive testing there of those who had contact with anyone who did not display symptoms but tested positive until the chain yielded negative test results. This is by far the best data we have so far, due to the earlier initial spread of the virus in Hubai, the lockdown that has been in place there for around seven weeks, the convergence between actual and confirmed cases as the number of new cases has dwindled to almost zero, and due to the methods the Chinese used to isolate those with symptoms and test everyone who had contact with them, whether symptomatic or not.
Fair enough. In that case it probably is a fairly accurate representation and those who actually have had it but not been tested are perhaps not as overwhelming as suggested.
Oh ok. So maybe not as accurate as i thought . Lots of suggestions that many who co tract the virus have extremely mild and in same cases, non existent symptoms. In this case they would never be tested would they? Have you ever been to the doctor for mild cold symptoms? If that is accurate the real number of cases is likely to be far far higher.perhaps double or triple that which has been recorded. But. If the testing in Hubei province has been extensive enough(ie forced testing of a citizens) then the chart would be accurate. I am curious as to which it is.As suggested where? The grey lines are confirmed cases based on when they were later tested and the patients were interviewed as to when symptom first presented. In other words, if a patient noticed first symptoms on January 21 but wasn't tested positive until January 30 and interviewed on January 31, then they had not been included in official counts released on January 21 (because no one knew they had it at the time). But after January 31 it was known that they had begun showing symptoms on January 21, and are thus included in the more accurate count for January 21 and following that can only be available some days after the fact.
Honestly, I would like to get price and actual reviews as soon as possible. I have been waiting for a serious Canon mirrorless camera and preventing the temptation to buy Sony cameras to couple with my Canon glass, since I knew that the initial EOS R/RP would be only an initial attempt by Canon to get into the mirrorless arena.
Now with the EOS R5/6 announced I eager to know how good they are and if can afford them
Additionally, It may serve as travel camera as well
I'd have loved this as a high schooler. More time to make out. Baby boom coming.Schools out forever.