Several years ago when Adobe announced it was moving to a subscription service, the cries on here and elsewhere were shrill. But the fact is in the last 5 years, the stock price of Adobe has QUADRUPLED. It's gone from about $70/share to today at $281.
With my regular work running a financial planning firm, I actually bought Adobe stock for some of my clients when they made the announcement years back. It worked out pretty damn well.
Here's the reality of this move. Adobe is going to $20 per month. What they are determining now is what they realistically expect the subscriber loss ratio to be. In other words, they can afford to lose HALF their customers and still net the same fiscal position they are in now. But they won't lose half. They might lose 15 - 20%, which means their gross revenues will STILL go WAY up and my Adobe stock positions will go even higher.
Anytime companies make these decisions, they always calculate loss ratios. If Adobe is going to $20, they have already factored in a few folks leaving their platform.
For example, I have been a full subscriber at $50 for a year or two now. I recently bought Final Cut Pro to migrate there and cut my Adobe subscription back to LR and PS only. Again, all factored in.
If you want to move to Capture One or whatever else, go on ahead. Adobe understands and has accounted for your departure in their pricing model.
With my regular work running a financial planning firm, I actually bought Adobe stock for some of my clients when they made the announcement years back. It worked out pretty damn well.
Here's the reality of this move. Adobe is going to $20 per month. What they are determining now is what they realistically expect the subscriber loss ratio to be. In other words, they can afford to lose HALF their customers and still net the same fiscal position they are in now. But they won't lose half. They might lose 15 - 20%, which means their gross revenues will STILL go WAY up and my Adobe stock positions will go even higher.
Anytime companies make these decisions, they always calculate loss ratios. If Adobe is going to $20, they have already factored in a few folks leaving their platform.
For example, I have been a full subscriber at $50 for a year or two now. I recently bought Final Cut Pro to migrate there and cut my Adobe subscription back to LR and PS only. Again, all factored in.
If you want to move to Capture One or whatever else, go on ahead. Adobe understands and has accounted for your departure in their pricing model.
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