Are high end DSLRs officially dead now?

Tugela

EOS 6D MK II
Feb 12, 2014
833
3
So, the April CIPA numbers are out. DSLRs account for 53% on ILC units sold, but account for only a paltry 38% of the value of ILCs sold. That means that most of the DSLRs that are being sold are low end models, with MILCs dominating the high end of the market.

I guess this should be no surprise, but it looks like 2019 is the end of the DSLR era.
 

neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
Jul 21, 2010
24,068
1,288
Of course, the DSLR market is mature and no new major DSLRs have been released in the past several months. Meanwhile, in that same period both Canon and Nikon entered the FF MILC market with two expensive cameras each.

But hey, you just keep right on drawing conclusions from data spanning a very limited time period. I mean, it took from 2013 to 2018 for MILCs to regain their 2012 sales level, but I'm sure your 4 months of data offer real, durable insight. :p
 

Michael Clark

Now we see through a glass, darkly...
Apr 5, 2016
573
241
So, the April CIPA numbers are out. DSLRs account for 53% on ILC units sold, but account for only a paltry 38% of the value of ILCs sold. That means that most of the DSLRs that are being sold are low end models, with MILCs dominating the high end of the market.

I guess this should be no surprise, but it looks like 2019 is the end of the DSLR era.
I think you meant to say, "It looks like 2019 is the end of the DSLR era in the high end sector."

You would still be incorrect, but less so.

Entry level DSLRs will be around as long as they're less than half the cost of their mirrorless counterparts when lens prices are also taken into account.

Higher level DSLRs will likely continue to yield market share to higher level MILCs in the long term, but that is not the same thing as saying 2019 is the end of the DSLR, even in the upper tier market. When Canon introduces the 1D X Mark III in early 2020, you'll see the percentage of value of ILCs sold claimed by DSLRs go up.
 

Mt Spokane Photography

I post too Much on Here!!
Mar 25, 2011
15,274
549
low end DSLR's have always made up the lions share of sales, but the higher end models are said to be selling relatively better. Same with P&S cameras.
 
Reactions: stevelee
Aug 1, 2017
286
166
Depends on what you mean by high end I suppose. Canon and Nikon have yet to release their latest flagships. We should see a 1DX Mark III and a Nikon D6 before the Tokyo Olympics. They will probably be the two best DSLR's ever built. They may be the last of their lines but I don't think that's certain. As good as Sony's A9's are, there are still action/sports applications where they can't compete with DSLR's.
 
Reactions: johnf3f

johnf3f

Canon 1Dx
Oct 25, 2012
921
17
Wales
Graphic.Artifacts makes a good point. Whilst Mirrorless has advanced by leaps and bounds they still leave much to be desired for certain uses/users = me.
Having said that for many uses ML cameras are distinctly better but the manufacturers have yet to produce a top quality ML body, with a full suite of top quality lenses, that perform in a wide range of adverse conditions. They are getting there but I think it will be a while yet before they fully get there.
 

slclick

Blessed Be The Fruit Loops
Dec 17, 2013
2,865
303
I hope not. I don't believe so either. The first is based on personal desire, the second on logic. I may not get my dream camera body (5D form factor, no anti aliasing filter, joystick, dual cards, moderate mp count, wide spread of cross type af points, EF mount, RAW monochrome option, no video and minimal controls) but I'm sure there will be many more dslr's to come.Sales may be in a slow decline but we're still talking about millions of items sold annually across hundreds of SKU's. And if you're talking high end only, it's still a good 12-20 across all the brands and pro shooters have shown they haven't moved en masse to ml yet. The migration is slow because the specs and features aren't there yet in total. Apply the logic of some folks argument about ML taking over dslrs to other industries and imagine their forum debates! (automobiles for one)
 

slclick

Blessed Be The Fruit Loops
Dec 17, 2013
2,865
303
What do you mean by that? Like a selectable CFA?
Yes an array bypass. I have no idea if it's possible. Canon has managed to do an AA bypass which is different than how Nikon does it with the 800E and an absence of an AA. I thought why not, but I do not expect to ever see it come to fruition, nor do I beleive they will do a stills only body ever. Just playful and wishful thinking.
 

Tugela

EOS 6D MK II
Feb 12, 2014
833
3
low end DSLR's have always made up the lions share of sales, but the higher end models are said to be selling relatively better. Same with P&S cameras.
That is not the case however. DSLR sales make of 55% of the ILC units being sold, but only 41% of the value for the first 4 months of the year, which means that the high end is the part that is collapsing. High end sales are going predominantly to MILC based systems.

April is even worse, with DSLRs making up 54% of units, but 38% of the value. Those are terrible numbers, and they can only be caused by a collapse of sales in the high end of the market. MILCs on the other hand make up 46% of units sold, but account for 62% of the value.

DSLRs themselves are at about 60% of sales compared to the first 4 months of last year, and are the primary cause of the drop in ILC numbers this year.
 

Tugela

EOS 6D MK II
Feb 12, 2014
833
3
Depends on what you mean by high end I suppose. Canon and Nikon have yet to release their latest flagships. We should see a 1DX Mark III and a Nikon D6 before the Tokyo Olympics. They will probably be the two best DSLR's ever built. They may be the last of their lines but I don't think that's certain. As good as Sony's A9's are, there are still action/sports applications where they can't compete with DSLR's.
The A9II will be coming out at the same time however.

Those very high end systems do not sell all that many units however, the bulk of high end sales comes from the prosumer sector of the market, so even if those cameras do come out they will not address the problem. The only barely high end DSLR in the immediate future that could have some volume would be the "90D" or whatever it is called, but I can't see too many people buying that when there are much better MILC options in that part of the market. There is not a whole lot else on the horizon, so things are only going to get worse.
 

BillB

EOS 6D MK II
May 11, 2017
943
168
The A9II will be coming out at the same time however.

Those very high end systems do not sell all that many units however, the bulk of high end sales comes from the prosumer sector of the market, so even if those cameras do come out they will not address the problem. The only barely high end DSLR in the immediate future that could have some volume would be the "90D" or whatever it is called, but I can't see too many people buying that when there are much better MILC options in that part of the market. There is not a whole lot else on the horizon, so things are only going to get worse.
And how are things only going to get worse if at there are at least 4 new high quality cameras available on the market?
 

AlanF

5DSR
Aug 16, 2012
4,993
1,744
That is not the case however. DSLR sales make of 55% of the ILC units being sold, but only 41% of the value for the first 4 months of the year, which means that the high end is the part that is collapsing. High end sales are going predominantly to MILC based systems.

April is even worse, with DSLRs making up 54% of units, but 38% of the value. Those are terrible numbers, and they can only be caused by a collapse of sales in the high end of the market. MILCs on the other hand make up 46% of units sold, but account for 62% of the value.

DSLRs themselves are at about 60% of sales compared to the first 4 months of last year, and are the primary cause of the drop in ILC numbers this year.
Does "value" = "profit"? The reason I ask is that two new mirrorless have been released, and one of them, the RP, may even be a loss leader, generating sales and revenue but little profit. No higher end DSLRs have been released and so we would expect their sales to be down and to bounce back on new releases.
 
Reactions: Durf and stevelee

YuengLinger

EOR R
Dec 20, 2012
2,267
293
Southeastern USA
If it weren't for the hope of a "5D V" version of the RF mount body, something with a joystick, two slots, faster frames-per-second, etc., I probably would have already replaced my second-shooter body, a 5D III, with another 5D IV. But Canon has me holding out for a better RF mount just for the sake of those lenses!

Did I get the wrong impression? I thought the visionaries on this site were approaching a consensus: Canon will release at least one more 1D level camera and see how things play out. If the 7D line is truly ending, how many more 5D dSLR's could be in the works?

On the other hand, despite enthusiastic fans, Tesla truly is doomed! (Kept on life support, maybe, by military subsidies.) ;) How many more generations of internal-combustion only vehicles will we see in the West? Who can predict?
 

Kit.

EOS 6D MK II
Apr 25, 2011
859
352
On the other hand, despite enthusiastic fans, Tesla truly is doomed! (Kept on life support, maybe, by military subsidies.) ;) How many more generations of internal-combustion only vehicles will we see in the West? Who can predict?
The proper analogy for MILC vs. modern DSLRs would be "all-electric" vs. "hybrids".
 
Reactions: 3kramd5

unfocused

EOS 5D SR
That is not the case however. DSLR sales make of 55% of the ILC units being sold, but only 41% of the value for the first 4 months of the year, which means that the high end is the part that is collapsing. High end sales are going predominantly to MILC based systems.

April is even worse, with DSLRs making up 54% of units, but 38% of the value. Those are terrible numbers, and they can only be caused by a collapse of sales in the high end of the market. MILCs on the other hand make up 46% of units sold, but account for 62% of the value.

DSLRs themselves are at about 60% of sales compared to the first 4 months of last year, and are the primary cause of the drop in ILC numbers this year.
You are abusing math to support your conclusions.

DSLR sales make of 55% of the ILC units being sold, but only 41% of the value for the first 4 months of the year, which means that the high end is the part that is collapsing. High end sales are going predominantly to MILC based systems...

...April is even worse, with DSLRs making up 54% of units, but 38% of the value. Those are terrible numbers, and they can only be caused by a collapse of sales in the high end of the market. MILCs on the other hand make up 46% of units sold, but account for 62% of the value.
No, that simply means that the average per unit cost of DSLRs is lower than the average per unit cost of MILCs. You don't know the actual value of the units being sold... the actual numbers of units sold...the price difference between units...etc. You simply don't have sufficient information to draw your conclusion.
 
Reactions: stevelee