Canon’s Official Full Frame Mirrorless Announcement Will Come After Photokina [CR2]

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
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#41
Likes: stevelee
Aug 12, 2018
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#42
But I was just responding to your comment about people arguing against it. I am not a Canon fanboy by any means, but the way you triumphantly embraced that press release makes me suspect you are a Sony fanboy (maybe in the closet still, but a fanboy nonetheless).
Truth be told, I am more of a Canon fanboy than anything else (despite an affection for fuji design). I am just really frustrated with Canon, because they keep disappointing. I have had the money set aside to upgrade my camera for 4 years now, but no camera that was worth being called an upgrade was released in this time frame. I waited with high hopes for the 6D2, which was a disappointment. The 5D4 would have been an upgrade, but it was out of my price range when it was released and now it just does not hold up to what other companies are giving you in a comparable price range.

I was really hoping Canon would close the gap with the FF mirrorless, but they are not in a hurry to make that happen. I am hoping the sony sales will give them some incentive to catch up, because I do not want to jump ship. I just want a camera with a justifiable price point and 2017 tech (mind you, not even 2018), thats all.
 
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neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
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#43
...I have had the money set aside to upgrade my camera for 4 years now, but no camera that was worth being called an upgrade was released in this time frame. I waited with high hopes for the 6D2, which was a disappointment. The 5D4 would have been an upgrade, but it was out of my price range when it was released and now it just does not hold up to what other companies are giving you in a comparable price range.

I was really hoping Canon would close the gap with the FF mirrorless, but they are not in a hurry to make that happen. I am hoping the sony sales will give them some incentive to catch up, because I do not want to jump ship. I just want a camera with a justifiable price point and 2017 tech (mind you, not even 2018), thats all.
You have sufficient funds for a 6DII but not a 5DIV, and you're disappointed with Canon so you're going to switch brands. What about lenses for the new camera? Sony lenses generally cost more than their Canon counterparts. I suppose the 3rd party adapters are getting better.
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
#44
Yeah, Canon's market share for mirrorless is impressive, but its based on units sold - they have targeted the low value/high volume part of the market ….. that means low margins …….. looks good on quantity, but not so good on profit …….Fuji and Sony may be selling less, but they're in a different part of the market ….. the margin on a $3,000 lens is a lot more than a $300 lens! Canon are going to have to enter the high end market soon, or they'll suffer, but need to avoid a repeat of the M release or they'll seriously damage their reputation
Smart comment. Canon’s MILC sales are coming from rock bottom pricing on low end models. Sony’s FF MILCs are appealing to people who want the the latest tech and are willing to pay good money for it. It’s similar to the iOS / Android situation- Android has more marketshare but Apple has all the profit. Not sure if that is really the case with Sony but certainly seems that they are targeting and gaining the high end of the FF prosumer market.... Which is why Canon and Nikon are finally moving in.
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
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#45
Smart comment. Canon’s MILC sales are coming from rock bottom pricing on low end models. Sony’s FF MILCs are appealing to people who want the the latest tech and are willing to pay good money for it. It’s similar to the iOS / Android situation- Android has more marketshare but Apple has all the profit. Not sure if that is really the case with Sony but certainly seems that they are targeting and gaining the high end of the FF prosumer market.... Which is why Canon and Nikon are finally moving in.
Consider history. Sony bought Konica/Minolta and sold DSLRs...they couldn’t compete with CaNikon, they abandoned the DSLR market and switched to APS-C MILCs. Canon launched the EOS M, which in it’s first year outsold every MILC in Japan except the 2-generation old, rock-bottom priced NEX model...and Sony launched a FF MILC and scaled back on APS-C MILCs. How much of Sony’s ‘innovation’ is merely them running away from markets where they can’t compete effectively, and into markets where there is limited to no competition? I wonder...now that Nikon (and likely soon Canon) are launching FF MILCs...where will Sony run away to NEXt?
 
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JBSF

EOS M50
Dec 19, 2014
87
32
#46
If that's the strategy, I don't think it's working very well. All I'm getting from it is an increased sense of annoyance.

Meanwhile, there's this:

SAN DIEGO, Aug. 15, 2018 – Sony Electronics, Inc. – a worldwide leader in digital imaging and the world’s largest image sensor manufacturer – today announced that it has overtaken and held the No. 1 overall position in the United States full-frame interchangeable lens camera market in the first half of 2018, in both dollars and units. In fact, four out of every 10 full-frame cameras sold during this time period have come from the Sony brand.

Additionally, Sony has announced that within the overall mirrorless market, it has held the No. 1 position in both dollars and units for more than six years. These strong results can be attributed to the company’s leadership in transitioning the market from older DSLR technology to next-generation mirrorless cameras.

The details are here:
https://www.dpreview.com/news/09472...-full-frame-interchangeable-lens-camera-sales

The added emphasis is mine. So who made the other 60% of the full-frame cameras? Do some research on the other FF makers (there are only 3) and crunch the numbers. This will show that Canon's sales had to be a hair's breadth from Sony's. Canon is not concerned about when they release a FF MILC, even if it is nine months from now, because one or two fully featured bodies might permanently steal Sony's lead, just as Canon has taken the lead in the APS-C MILC realm. Sony has given Canon a multi-year case study in the features that consumers do or do not want or like, as well as the volume and pricing levels that Sony has conditioned people to. I suspect Canon's strategies are well conceived.
 
Feb 21, 2013
25
4
#47
This will show that Canon's sales had to be a hair's breadth from Sony's. Canon is not concerned about when they release a FF MILC, even if it is nine months from now, because one or two fully featured bodies might permanently steal Sony's lead, just as Canon has taken the lead in the APS-C MILC realm. Sony has given Canon a multi-year case study in the features that consumers do or do not want or like, as well as the volume and pricing levels that Sony has conditioned people to. I suspect Canon's strategies are well conceived.
In the past few years, Sony's ILC camera sales have grown from basically nil to to within a hair's breadth of Canon. That certainly does indicate a well conceived strategy - on Sony's part.
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
#48
Consider history. Sony bought Konica/Minolta and sold DSLRs...they couldn’t compete with CaNikon, they abandoned the DSLR market and switched to APS-C MILCs. Canon launched the EOS M, which in it’s first year outsold every MILC in Japan except the 2-generation old, rock-bottom priced NEX model...and Sony launched a FF MILC and scaled back on APS-C MILCs. How much of Sony’s ‘innovation’ is merely them running away from markets where they can’t compete effectively, and into markets where there is limited to no competition? I wonder...now that Nikon (and likely soon Canon) are launching FF MILCs...where will Sony run away to NEXt?
You’re assuming that they will simply run away again this time when Canon/Nikon enter the market. Sony may have learned something here, too. Their increased investment in MILC lenses shows they may be in the market to stay this time. If they launch new professional services that will be a sign. I hope they do, because increased competition is good for all of us. Canon would have never made their more recent moves on the MILC market if Sony hadn’t shown them the way.
 
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transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
#49
For a 6-month period during which Sony launched a new FF camera and CaNikon's FF cameras have not been refreshed for quite some time.

Sony should release a chartreuse FF MILC so they can issue a press release that they're the global market leader in sales of chartreuse FF MILCs.
Still, this says something- that what Canon and Nikon are currently offering is not sufficient for the market. Which is why Canon and Nikon are shifting gears to course correct. Again, as in my last response. Sony put the spotlight on FF mirrorless, experimented and included the right photo and video features, and has thus shown Canon and Nikon where the future profits are- and why they need to enter that market.

Selling M50s on sale for $699 won’t address that.
 
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VOTOXY

VOTOXY Studios
Aug 16, 2018
5
7
Paris, France
www.votoxy.com
#50
I'm really excited to see what Canon is going to do with this FF Mirrorless.. Currently on a 70D, and hesitating to go to Sony despite owning a lot of EF L lenses..
Really looking forward to see if Canon will be capable to re-take the lead on the market, exactly like they did a long time ago with the EOS systems!
Hope it will be the 1dx equivalent in mirrorless with the EF mount.. It would be a dream! and they could take the lead on the a7rIII and the upcoming a7sIII
 
Jan 26, 2017
235
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www.flickr.com
#52
Still, this says something- that what Canon and Nikon are currently offering is not sufficient for the market.
Does it though?

The market includes all buyers across a wide swath of time. Not all camera owners are in the market to upgrade at all times. There are always users of one brand or another waiting for "their brand" to release their next model before they make a change. Nikon announced being first in full frame in December right after releasing the D850. Why? Because a lot of people were waiting for Nikon to release the camera to upgrade. Nikon hadn't released a full frame camera since January 2016 and it was the D5 (which won't fit the budget of a lot of users): before that? The D810A released February 2015. Before that? The D750 in September 2014. Needless to say, Nikon users had pent up demand which got released all at once in buying the D850 leading to Nikon making that claim. That wasn't the start of an ongoing trend of full frame dominance by Nikon, it was a snapshot in purchases and release of demand all at once.

Just the same, Sony has had 2 full frame cameras released since November while Canon and Nikon have had none. It makes sense that they would have a lot of sales in that period - they've released 2 cameras in that period while the competition have released zero. Sure, some sales will come from people jumping from another brand, but much will come from a7ii and a7Rii users who've been waiting to upgrade.

When Sony is first in full frame through a whole release schedule for Canon and Nikon they will have some bragging rights and be able to claim actual market dominance. Then Sony could claim that anyone who was waiting to upgrade in Nikon or Canon would have already done it. Until then, it's easy to cherry pick data to support a conclusion: the market is bigger than a snapshot in time.
 
Likes: pj1974
Apr 23, 2018
1,061
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#53
In the past few years, Sony's ILC camera sales have grown from basically nil to to within a hair's breadth of Canon. That certainly does indicate a well conceived strategy - on Sony's part.
YES! It is!

Up to now many Canon Fanbois in this fiorum claimed that SOny does not sell a lot of cameras, that they will never get anywhere near Canon etc. etc.

I find it amazing and well deserved how Sony has been kicking CaNikon's fat butts during the first half of 2018. Only thing hiolding Sony back from market dominance is their lens lineup, especially the pricing. If the bring 2 decent, fairly priced new APS-C cameras [EOS M50 competitor and M5/M6 competitor] plus some decent E-mount crop lenses without Zeiss label, but at Canon EF-M prices, and FE lenses that are affordable, they will go gold. Globally.
 
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dak723

EOS Rebel T7i
Oct 26, 2013
942
82
#54
I bought Canon's original D30 the minute it was available. Subsequently I have had the 10D, 5D, and 6D. So I have witnessed and participated in Canon's glacial development cycles and customer-antagonizing feature decisions first hand. I have stuck with Canon because I felt overall their end product was still the best available for my needs.

In fact, I never upgrade until I can identify a shortcoming of my current camera that is preventing me from advancing my technique. I have been at that point for a couple of years with my 6D. The 6D2 did not address the areas of improvement I needed. Neither does the 5DIV. The painful realization is, there is not one single Canon camera that does meet all my particular needs.

(Disclaimer: my needs are not yours, so please spare me argumentation on that point. I am happy for everyone completely satisfied with their Canon camera and I am not going to second-guess your needs or satisfaction. So don't second-guess mine!)

On the heels of my long-building disgruntlement with Canon, has arrived the extremely affordable Sony A7III which is very nearly the camera I would spec for myself. Coupled with the fact that Sony is actively fleshing out their lens line-up, that third-party lens support for Sony is coming on strong, and there are now two high-quality EF lens adapters available, all barriers for me switching to Sony are removed. All I have to do is pull the trigger and go.

From my perspective, Canon is fiddling around while Rome burns,. This delay, while very typical of Canon, ignores the fact that this time, things are different. There is very serious competition that is meeting Canon in all full-frame market segments, from entry level to high-res to sports. I suspect whatever mirrorless full frame cameras Canon announces will have been subjected to Canon's usual market-segmentation analysis and rife with "camera crippling" decisions. They are sticking with all their other scripts and I see no reason they won't stick to that script too!

Bottom line for me, it's just about time to cut opportunity costs associated with remaining a Canon customer, and decamp to Sony.

Yes, it sounds like you should. Go get your new Sony. Each person should get the camera that suits them best.

I would, however, make sure that you buy from someplace that accepts returns, or if you have a chance, rent the camera first. In my experience with both the Sony A7 and A7 II, I found that the top-notch specs were quite misleading and the cameras were very disappointing. Hopefully, you will not find this to be so.
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
#55
Does it though?

The market includes all buyers across a wide swath of time. Not all camera owners are in the market to upgrade at all times. There are always users of one brand or another waiting for "their brand" to release their next model before they make a change. Nikon announced being first in full frame in December right after releasing the D850. Why? Because a lot of people were waiting for Nikon to release the camera to upgrade. Nikon hadn't released a full frame camera since January 2016 and it was the D5 (which won't fit the budget of a lot of users): before that? The D810A released February 2015. Before that? The D750 in September 2014. Needless to say, Nikon users had pent up demand which got released all at once in buying the D850 leading to Nikon making that claim. That wasn't the start of an ongoing trend of full frame dominance by Nikon, it was a snapshot in purchases and release of demand all at once.

Just the same, Sony has had 2 full frame cameras released since November while Canon and Nikon have had none. It makes sense that they would have a lot of sales in that period - they've released 2 cameras in that period while the competition have released zero. Sure, some sales will come from people jumping from another brand, but much will come from a7ii and a7Rii users who've been waiting to upgrade.

When Sony is first in full frame through a whole release schedule for Canon and Nikon they will have some bragging rights and be able to claim actual market dominance. Then Sony could claim that anyone who was waiting to upgrade in Nikon or Canon would have already done it. Until then, it's easy to cherry pick data to support a conclusion: the market is bigger than a snapshot in time.
The fact is, we don’t know the demographic breakdown of Sony’s FF purchasers. One has to assume some are new to the system and some are upgrading. The indisputable fact is that neither of those demographics are interested in FF DSLRs from Canon and Nikon and therefore Sony is doing something right- which both Nikon and Canon are about to emulate with their own twist on mirrorless. The very fact that Canon and Nikon are jumping into this market shows that Sony is making an impact, regardless of overall marketshare.
 
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Mikehit

EOS 5D Mark IV
Jul 28, 2015
3,016
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#56
In the past few years, Sony's ILC camera sales have grown from basically nil to to within a hair's breadth of Canon. That certainly does indicate a well conceived strategy - on Sony's part.
You have it the wrong way round.
Sony sales are nowhere near Canon if you look at the camera market as a whole. In a subsection (mirrorless) Olympus and Panaonic were the clear leaders.Then Sony caught on and made an impression with their Axxxx series - then Canon came to the mirrorless market and within about 2 years were selling more than Sony. The Sony moved into the FF market and have outsold Canon it seems in one market (the US) in one minor sector (FF).

It seems you have been drinking the Sony KoolAid.
I am not denying that Sony has been advancing their sales with some impressive machines, but that is ONLY in FF and any talk of 'Sony selling more cameras that Canon' is an overenthusiastic interpretation of a Sony press release. One concern for Sony fans must be that they, like Olympus and Panasonic, are concentrating on premium cameras but what is the market size for them? They can probably make a good living on that end of the market but if they want to sell more than CaNikon they have to move into the 'newbie' area of $500 cameras and that means APS-C and they are showing little advance in that key area.
 
Jan 26, 2017
235
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www.flickr.com
#57
The indisputable fact is that neither of those demographics are interested in FF DSLRs from Canon and Nikon and therefore Sony is doing something right- which both Nikon and Canon are about to emulate with their own twist on mirrorless.
The only indisputable fact here is that a subset of the market purchased more Sony full frame cameras over a short period than any other manufacturer: this is true. What this means for over all market share and whether or not Sony is taking the lead in the market or threatening the other manufacturers is not possible to infer one way or the other based on this data. I'm not saying it isn't/won't/can't happen, I'm saying this data doesn't tell us one way or the other.

Again, if this was January 2018 Nikon would be holding that crown, but it was a blip in time and not indicative of actual market share. The same could prove to be true here, or Sony could actually be taking the lead. The data doesn't tell us.

Think of it this way: if we were comparing whether Christmas trees sell better in New York State versus Sandals, our results may depend on when we collect our data. If we collect our data in December, I would bet Christmas trees sell more, but if we collect data in June I'd bet on Sandals. The only way to compare the two is to look at a year of sales. In the same way, to infer actual marketshare changes we need to see a full cycle. We really need to see who holds the crown over release periods from all the manufacturers.
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
23,317
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#58
In the past few years, Sony's ILC camera sales have grown from basically nil to to within a hair's breadth of Canon. That certainly does indicate a well conceived strategy - on Sony's part.
Ummmm.....no. Sony’s FF camera sales have grown and may be encroaching on Canon’s FF camera sales worldwide (we don’t know, only have information on the US market, and that information comes from Sony themselves). Far more APS-C cameras are sold than FF cameras, in the overall market Canon has ~50% of ILC sales, Sony is well under 20% of ILC sales. Are you actually suggesting that 20% is a hair’s breadth away from 50%, or are you just ignorant about the actual state of ILC market shares?
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
23,317
364
#59
YES! It is!

Up to now many Canon Fanbois in this fiorum claimed that SOny does not sell a lot of cameras, that they will never get anywhere near Canon etc. etc.

I find it amazing and well deserved how Sony has been kicking CaNikon's fat butts during the first half of 2018. Only thing hiolding Sony back from market dominance is their lens lineup, especially the pricing. If the bring 2 decent, fairly priced new APS-C cameras [EOS M50 competitor and M5/M6 competitor] plus some decent E-mount crop lenses without Zeiss label, but at Canon EF-M prices, and FE lenses that are affordable, they will go gold. Globally.
Someone else who’s ignorant about facts concerning market share. No surprise there.

Sony launched the a7III near the start of that 6-month period, whereas CaNikon haven’t launched a new FF model for quite some time. If Nikon’s teased FF MILC launches any time soon, you can bet Sony will have their butts kicked back to the curb for full-year FF sales in the US.
 
Apr 23, 2018
1,061
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#60
Nikons mirrorfree FF cameras will probably NOT offer price/value to pose any sort of threat to Sony A7 III.
My expectation for Nikon mirrorfree market share generally is rather low for the next 2 years at least.
 
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