Canon’s Official Full Frame Mirrorless Announcement Will Come After Photokina [CR2]

Mikehit

EOS 5D Mark IV
Jul 28, 2015
3,005
216
#61
It probably won't. I wold be surprised if it did.
But how many times does it have to be pointed out that high-tech spec sheets are clearly not that important to the general user - if it was then Sony would have been #1 for years, not just the last 6 months.
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
23,312
354
#62
Time will tell, but I doubt we will see a press release from Sony on their full year 2018 FF ILC sales in the US. On the other hand, I think it's very likely that we will see a press release from Canon on them being the ILC market leader for a 16th straight year. We are still a long way from mirrorlacking cameras gaining a majority, and FF cameras, both DSLRs and mirrorlackers, are still a small minority of the ILC market.
 

ahsanford

Particular Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,941
464
#63
Ummmm.....no. Sony’s FF camera sales have grown and may be encroaching on Canon’s FF camera sales worldwide (we don’t know, only have information on the US market, and that information comes from Sony themselves). Far more APS-C cameras are sold than FF cameras, in the overall market Canon has ~50% of ILC sales, Sony is well under 20% of ILC sales. Are you actually suggesting that 20% is a hair’s breadth away from 50%, or are you just ignorant about the actual state of ILC market shares?
+1

Global ILC unit data, from just two weeks ago:

Nikkei-2018-interchangeable-lens-camera-market-share-report.png

Don't underestimate the power units the the APS-C, Luke.

- A
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
#64
Nikons mirrorfree FF cameras will probably NOT offer price/value to pose any sort of threat to Sony A7 III.
My expectation for Nikon mirrorfree market share generally is rather low for the next 2 years at least.
Agreed- whatever Nikon’s selling in those teasers looks expensive. I doubt they will compete at the $2K mark with the Sony A7III, at least right away. No, Canon and Nikon will keep the price on the higher end ($3K and up) with their first FF entries- this will offset any loss from DSLR sales and keep from commoditizing their FF MILCs too soon. These are both very conservative companies we’re talking about- Canon more so.
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
#65
It probably won't. I wold be surprised if it did.
But how many times does it have to be pointed out that high-tech spec sheets are clearly not that important to the general user - if it was then Sony would have been #1 for years, not just the last 6 months.
They clearly are important to the MILC market, which is why Canon is beginning to include 4K video in their mirrorless offerings (well, one MILC offering, anyway, and a poor implementation at that, but still- they included it). If a buyer is savvy enough to want a mirrorless instead of a DSLR, the same buyer will be savvy enough to want the latest specs.
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
23,312
354
#66
They [spec sheets] clearly are important to the MILC market, which is why Canon is beginning to include 4K video in their mirrorless offerings (well, one MILC offering, anyway, and a poor implementation at that, but still- they included it). If a buyer is savvy enough to want a mirrorless instead of a DSLR, the same buyer will be savvy enough to want the latest specs.
There's really no evidence to support that position. In the FF MILC arena, Sony has good specs, but there's no evidence that is driving sales...buyers can choose only between Sony and the uber-expensive Leica. No support there. In the APS-C MILC arena, the EOS M line has (according to internet wisdom) been underspec'd compared to the competition since its launch. Yet it's the best-selling MILC line (and was before the M50 with 4K launched). That argues strongly against your contention.

It's certainly true that spec sheets are important to armchair experts and internet measurebaters. But the available sales data argue that spec sheets aren't really important to the majority of buyers. Consider...when they sold just DSLRs, Sony had ~13% of the ILC market share. Now, many years of MILC 'spec-sheet dominance' later, Sony has...wait for it...~13% of the ILC market share.
 
Apr 23, 2018
1,044
141
#67
Someone else who’s ignorant about facts concerning market share. No surprise there.

Sony launched the a7III near the start of that 6-month period, whereas CaNikon haven’t launched a new FF model for quite some time. If Nikon’s teased FF MILC launches any time soon, you can bet Sony will have their butts kicked back to the curb for full-year FF sales in the US.
you are just providing possible explanations for current market share distribution.

re. Nikon one could add the fact, that their potentially best-selling FF camera model D850 was and is not really available in the USA for an entire year now. fact:)

if nikon manages sales logistics for Z6/z7 as poorly, they will not sell many in 2018 in the USA. :)

and Canon's FF MILC/s will in all likelihood not be available at all during 2018. no X-mas/festive season sales. oO !

does not look like there's much threat to Sony's 2018 full year FF ILC market share in the US of A. it will rather be Sony continueing to kick CaNikon mirrorslappers in the butt. :)
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
23,312
354
#68
you are just providing possible explanations for current market share distribution.

re. Nikon one could add the fact, that their potentially best-selling FF camera model D850 was and is not really available in the USA for an entire year now. fact:)

if nikon manages sales logistics for Z6/z7 as poorly, they will not sell many in 2018 in the USA. :)

and Canon's FF MILC/s will in all likelihood not be available at all during 2018. no X-mas/festive season sales. oO !

does not look like there's much threat to Sony's 2018 full year FF ILC market share in the US of A. it will rather be Sony continueing to kick CaNikon mirrorslappers in the butt. :)
Interesting about the D850! Likely made it easier for Sony.

As for 2018 FF ILC sales in the US, probably Canon could drop the prices of the 5DIV and 6DII (fall instant rebate / printer bundle time) and that would wipe out Sony's small lead.
 

Mikehit

EOS 5D Mark IV
Jul 28, 2015
3,005
216
#69
They clearly are important to the MILC market, which is why Canon is beginning to include 4K video in their mirrorless offerings (well, one MILC offering, anyway, and a poor implementation at that, but still- they included it). If a buyer is savvy enough to want a mirrorless instead of a DSLR, the same buyer will be savvy enough to want the latest specs.
About the only reason Sony has made such an impact is because of their sensor that caused so much interest in their products. I have long maintained that the take up of mirrorless would be much slower if it had been relying simply on the technological advantages of mirrorless. I am not saying that mirrorless would not have developed, just that the only reason the early A7s sold at all was because people were willing to put up with quite appalling ergonomics for what the sensor offered.

Your comment "if a buyer is savvy enough to want a mirrorless " implies some level of people who want DSLRs aren't savvy about photography and cameras which I find a rather pompous approach to what is really a very personal choice.
 
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BillB

EOS Rebel T7i
May 11, 2017
788
52
#70
Nikons mirrorfree FF cameras will probably NOT offer price/value to pose any sort of threat to Sony A7 III.
My expectation for Nikon mirrorfree market share generally is rather low for the next 2 years at least.

If I recollect correctly, Nikon has announced the price points for its first 2 mirrorless will be around $2K and $3K. However, I also suspect that Nikon is going to have a tough time for a while making the price/value case to buyers, if only because of the cost of new lenses.
 

BillB

EOS Rebel T7i
May 11, 2017
788
52
#71
Interesting about the D850! Likely made it easier for Sony.

As for 2018 FF ILC sales in the US, probably Canon could drop the prices of the 5DIV and 6DII (fall instant rebate / printer bundle time) and that would wipe out Sony's small lead.
Part of the picture is that Sony started selling FF mirrorless for $2K, a thousand bucks less than anything previously on the market. That will have vacuumed up a lot of demand from persons that weren't ready pay $3K for a new camera. We shall see how that plays out over time.
 
Jan 25, 2016
36
12
#73
+1
Global ILC unit data, from just two weeks ago:
[...]
Don't underestimate the power units the the APS-C, Luke.
Thats because Canon has like a bazillion cheap cameras in the mainstream market. Even if you count only mirrorless, they have currently at least 6 cameras in their portfolio.
It's a different story if you look at the professional market, which consists 90% of full frame cameras.
Also, the professional market sets future trends which later lead into the mainstream market.
Thats why Sony's strategy is to capture the pro market first. They only got 3 cameras of the whole lineup targetted at the mainstream market.
All other models (A7, A7II, A7III plus their R and S variants) are targettet at the professionals.
 
Likes: VOTOXY
Feb 8, 2018
37
10
UK
#74
They really have no idea what they are talking about. They read reviews, they watch YouTube, etc., and then act like they know something.
Only I'm an owner and feel Canon have produced poor products of recent, yes I can sell and move on that's a given which I will do if the new Nikon is up to speed...

So lets take the 5d4, it seems the 4k video crop wasn't greatly received by pro owners nor were the massive files spun from that camera with them eating up memory card faster than you can buy them,(a lot for your computer to deal with also) + the restricted ISO in the 4k mode, and slow-mo video was also somewhat restricted compared to component cameras like the d850 and Canon thinking pros didn't want a flip out screen, then the time lapse video another let down compared to the d850, also they could have given some button illumination as on the d850 etc etc etc...

And we all know the fail of the 6d2, an over priced under performer with poor DR, missing head phone jack, card slot and no 4k

Both these Cameras cost some bucks with the 5d4 even now priced at £3,249 here in the UK, it's a shame they're limited on innovation, no wonder people feel let down by this company when you see what other brands are offering and putting all I've written aside they are capable of producing great work, only that when you're told on the companies website things like 'what a great video camera the 6d2 is' and then find it isn't really but it costs £2000 it starts the process of wondering WTF?

For the record I really like canon glass and the cameras produce great images but it seeming to feel now that canon doesn't like to give you much in return for your money!

Please convince us we're wrong on feeling this way...
 
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Likes: VOTOXY

CanonFanBoy

Bipolar. When it is happening I don't realize it.
Jan 28, 2015
2,484
136
Irving, Texas
#75
Only I'm an owner and feel Canon have produced poor products of recent...

For the record I really like canon glass and the cameras produce great images but it seeming to feel now that canon doesn't like to give you much in return for your money!
So which is it? Canon produces poor products? Or Canon's glass is great and the cameras produce great images? ::( Please.

By the way, which Canon camera(s) do you own? 6D II? You also own a Sony, don't you? Are you a pro? What evidence do you have to suggest the 5D IV was not well received by pros? When it comes right down to it the 5D mark IV is primarily a stills camera. Personally, I don't own a 4K monitor (Do they exist?) or 4K television so it doesn't matter to me. I don't shoot video at all. Have you personally run into DR issues? Or is that perception from youtube and bloggers? Exactly how many stops of DR do you want?

The 6D mark II is going for $1,599 here in the USA.

Anyway, Tony, you are not one of those who complains year after year and threatens to jump ship over and over again... which are the people I was talking about.
 
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Apr 23, 2018
1,044
141
#77
"Stellar EF/EF-X adapter" is so simple, it won't cause any delay. Canon just needs to take EF-/EF-M adapter and change 2 parameters: diameter and length as required by EF-X mount. Less than 2 hrs for any Canon design engineer I'd hope.