Canon’s Official Full Frame Mirrorless Announcement Will Come After Photokina [CR2]

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
#84
There's really no evidence to support that position. In the FF MILC arena, Sony has good specs, but there's no evidence that is driving sales...buyers can choose only between Sony and the uber-expensive Leica. No support there. In the APS-C MILC arena, the EOS M line has (according to internet wisdom) been underspec'd compared to the competition since its launch. Yet it's the best-selling MILC line (and was before the M50 with 4K launched). That argues strongly against your contention.

It's certainly true that spec sheets are important to armchair experts and internet measurebaters. But the available sales data argue that spec sheets aren't really important to the majority of buyers. Consider...when they sold just DSLRs, Sony had ~13% of the ILC market share. Now, many years of MILC 'spec-sheet dominance' later, Sony has...wait for it...~13% of the ILC market share.
You're stretching here. Spec sheets do appear to be driving sales among FF buyers who want and pay $2-3K for a camera. The "armchair experts and internet measurebaters," as you call them, are the YouTube influencers and vloggers who drive public perception and purchasing decisions for the general public, and so as much as you might want to dismiss them, they do matter.

As for the marketshare, Sony only has 13% of the ILC market, but which 13%? It appears to be the 13% that Canon and Nikon want, since it seems Sony is appealing to a demographic interested in FF MILCs and which possesses actual purchasing power.

The EOS M line is the best selling MILC line because it's cheap, and since Canon is not content with only a low-margin MILC business, it is going to go after the demographic that Sony FFs appeal to. Canon wants the money. You can't make that much money on a $699 EOS-M.

You can, however, make a lot more if you sell a $2-3K FF MILC to a New York hipster. (Full disclosure, I live in NY, so nothing against NY hipsters.)

The very fact that Canon is entering this market proves the point- they want the FF MILC money that Sony is getting.

Incidentally, the spec sheet war has already been decided- Canon relented, and started to include 4K video in their MILC cameras. I suspect they will continue to do so. Why? Because specs do matter.
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
#85
About the only reason Sony has made such an impact is because of their sensor that caused so much interest in their products. I have long maintained that the take up of mirrorless would be much slower if it had been relying simply on the technological advantages of mirrorless. I am not saying that mirrorless would not have developed, just that the only reason the early A7s sold at all was because people were willing to put up with quite appalling ergonomics for what the sensor offered.

Your comment "if a buyer is savvy enough to want a mirrorless " implies some level of people who want DSLRs aren't savvy about photography and cameras which I find a rather pompous approach to what is really a very personal choice.
Lol- pompous compared to the level of other forum posters here? Don't make me laugh. The level of condescension from you and others here is legendary.

However, my intention was not to degrade DSLR buyers- only to differentiate between Camera Buyer A who knows what a mirrorless camera is, and Camera Buyer B who does not (and who likely doesn't even know that there are mirrors in some cameras). These are very simplistic differentiations- there are typically many more shades of grey.
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
23,312
358
#86
You're stretching here. Spec sheets do appear to be driving sales among FF buyers who want and pay $2-3K for a camera.
You're conflating here. Buyers interested in a $2-3K FF camera have basically three options, two of which are several years old and long past peak sales, one of which is new and also the cheapest of the three. Price and novelty, not spec sheets, are the likely driver.

You can't make that much money on a $699 EOS-M.

You can, however, make a lot more if you sell a $2-3K FF MILC
Which yields more profit – selling 150 cameras at $699 with a 10% margin, or selling 10 cameras at $3K with a 20% margin?
 
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BillB

EOS Rebel T7i
May 11, 2017
788
53
#87
You're stretching here. Spec sheets do appear to be driving sales among FF buyers who want and pay $2-3K for a camera. The "armchair experts and internet measurebaters," as you call them, are the YouTube influencers and vloggers who drive public perception and purchasing decisions for the general public, and so as much as you might want to dismiss them, they do matter.

As for the marketshare, Sony only has 13% of the ILC market, but which 13%? It appears to be the 13% that Canon and Nikon want, since it seems Sony is appealing to a demographic interested in FF MILCs and which possesses actual purchasing power.

The EOS M line is the best selling MILC line because it's cheap, and since Canon is not content with only a low-margin MILC business, it is going to go after the demographic that Sony FFs appeal to. Canon wants the money. You can't make that much money on a $699 EOS-M.

You can, however, make a lot more if you sell a $2-3K FF MILC to a New York hipster. (Full disclosure, I live in NY, so nothing against NY hipsters.)

The very fact that Canon is entering this market proves the point- they want the FF MILC money that Sony is getting.

Incidentally, the spec sheet war has already been decided- Canon relented, and started to include 4K video in their MILC cameras. I suspect they will continue to do so. Why? Because specs do matter.
Not sure the spec sheet war has been decided, whatever that means. Canon has released cameras with 4K, which has been trashed as underspec'd and noncompetitive and that may well continue. How would that change anything?

It looks to me as though Canon is setting up to match 3 cameras against the A7III: a high end M to create a lower cost mirrorless option using aps-c; the 6DII as a second lower cost option with a FF sensor, articulated screen and Canon's touchscreen user interface; and a new fullframe mirrorless that will be at or a little above the A7III price point. There will certainly be people who would regard the A7III as the clear choice in this situation, but who knows how well the numbers would work out in this scenario?
 
Feb 8, 2018
37
10
UK
#88
So which is it? Canon produces poor products? Or Canon's glass is great and the cameras produce great images? ::( Please.

By the way, which Canon camera(s) do you own? 6D II? You also own a Sony, don't you? Are you a pro? What evidence do you have to suggest the 5D IV was not well received by pros? When it comes right down to it the 5D mark IV is primarily a stills camera. Personally, I don't own a 4K monitor (Do they exist?) or 4K television so it doesn't matter to me. I don't shoot video at all. Have you personally run into DR issues? Or is that perception from youtube and bloggers? Exactly how many stops of DR do you want?

The 6D mark II is going for $1,599 here in the USA.

Anyway, Tony, you are not one of those who complains year after year and threatens to jump ship over and over again... which are the people I was talking about.
That wasn't meant as a dig, only responding to your post and explaining the issues....
 

ahsanford

Particular Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,941
464
#89
Canon wants the money. You can't make that much money on a $699 EOS-M.

You can, however, make a lot more if you sell a $2-3K FF MILC to a New York hipster.
That's pure speculation. We don't know the standard production cost of the various cameras.

It could turn out that Sony is giving away their A7 III's at an asking price just a hair above their production cost in an effort to rack up unit sales to make "We're #1" announcements like we just saw in the news. Or perhaps Sony is selling a cut-rate A7 III to lure people into the ecosystem, only to hammer them with new lens prices.

Meanwhile, perhaps Canon is quietly making $200 profit per unit on that cheap EOS M you referenced b/c of production economies of scale.

- A
 

Mikehit

EOS 5D Mark IV
Jul 28, 2015
3,005
216
#90
Or the perception of a delay could be from reading that an announcement is imminent four or five times this past year, only to read that the announcement will come later. :p
And who said it was imminent? Not Canon that is for sure - it was internet forum chatter from people who like to think they are important enough to know what is happening.
 

Don Haines

posting cat pictures on the internet since 1986
Jun 4, 2012
7,179
157
Canada
#91
What delay?

Oh, you mean Canon not making an announcement based on your timetable. That's not a delay, that's just your hubris.
Actually, these are delays based on rumours....

So far, Canon has said that something will be coming at some point. They have not said what or when..... I find it astounding what we forum users have read into that... :)
 
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BillB

EOS Rebel T7i
May 11, 2017
788
53
#92
Actually, these are delays based on rumours....

So far, Canon has said that something will be coming at some point. They have not said what or when..... I find it astounding what we forum users have read into that... :)
Confusion of internet buzz with reality seems to happen a lot.
 

YuengLinger

EOS 7D Mark II
Dec 20, 2012
1,895
19
Southeastern USA
#96
Confusion of internet buzz with reality seems to happen a lot.
I'm astounded that members of a RUMORS site believe we should only react to facts, not speculation. Did I miss something during the forum update? Did it get changed to a review site?

Neuro has reminded us over 10,000 23,000 (!) times to stick to the facts. He does this on a rumors forum! Yes, we all have our peculiar ways.
 
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BillB

EOS Rebel T7i
May 11, 2017
788
53
#97
I'm astounded that members of a RUMORS site believe we should only react to facts, not speculation. Did I miss something during the forum update? Did it get changed to a review site?

Neuro had reminded us over 10,000 times to stick to the facts. He does this on a rumors forum! Yes, we all have our peculiar ways.
Well, reacting to rumors is one thing, but believing that you have been misled when rumors don't pan out would seem to be something else.
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
23,312
358
#98
Well, reacting to rumors is one thing, but believing that you have been misled when rumors don't pan out would seem to be something else.
Exactly. Claiming that Canon is delaying their announcement of a FF MILC because the RUMORED date of that hypothetical announcement gets pushed back...well, it's hard to believe anyone with a modicum of intellect could draw any conclusions from that, but sadly it appears to have occurred.
 

Mikehit

EOS 5D Mark IV
Jul 28, 2015
3,005
216
#99
I'm astounded that members of a RUMORS site believe we should only react to facts, not speculation. Did I miss something during the forum update? Did it get changed to a review site?

Neuro has reminded us over 10,000 23,000 (!) times to stick to the facts. He does this on a rumors forum! Yes, we all have our peculiar ways.
I suggest you go back to why those comments materialised. Canon were accused of delaying their announcements whereas Canon have delayed nothing. All that has happened is that the announcement has not come at the time people have been saying they will - so how have Canon delayed anything?
If the comment had been that 'the announcement is later than the rumours suggested' that would have been accurate.


EDIT: Neuro beat me to it.
 
Others have done it for me. But if you insist: Canon Rumors guy gets RUMORS from a variety of sources, known and unknown. He rates those rumors based on his assessment of their reliability. It's beyond bizarre to say that an announcement has been delayed based on the fact that people spreading rumors were wrong.
 
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