Canon’s Official Full Frame Mirrorless Announcement Will Come After Photokina [CR2]

Dec 11, 2011
33
1
I personally believe that even if they only have a concept camera and are not shipping for months, they will make some announcement at Photkina about a full frame mirrorless. Simply because they have people jumping ship all the time these days and they would be seen by the public as a tech follower of the others. Particularly with Nikon announcing their offering who, regardless of their actual sales position, has been their "nemesis" for many years.
By announcing something coming months down the line, they will cut sales of competitors products by a certain percentage as it will cause some to wait. If they do announce something concrete with an ETA of a couple of months in time for Christmas sales, they will double or triple that percentage loss that their competitors experience.
 
Likes: YuengLinger

YuengLinger

EOS 7D Mark II
Dec 20, 2012
1,903
19
Southeastern USA
I suggest you go back to why those comments materialised. Canon were accused of delaying their announcements whereas Canon have delayed nothing. All that has happened is that the announcement has not come at the time people have been saying they will - so how have Canon delayed anything?
If the comment had been that 'the announcement is later than the rumours suggested' that would have been accurate.


EDIT: Neuro beat me to it.
Yes, I should have been more precise.
 

BillB

EOS Rebel T7i
May 11, 2017
788
53
Others have done it for me. But if you insist: Canon Rumors guy gets RUMORS from a variety of sources, known and unknown. He rates those rumors based on his assessment of their reliability. It's beyond bizarre to say that an announcement has been delayed based on the fact that people spreading rumors were wrong.
The speculation on the release of the Canon mirrorless reached the point that CR Guy posted that he was rescinding his rumor assessments because his sources were proving unreliable and contradictory. There never was any good information on what Canon was going to do.

Rumors and speculation are tested by logic and facts. That is where the facts come into it.
Speculation is ok, but so is testing the speculation with logic and facts. Speculation based on the absence of facts to the contrary often fails to persuade everyone.
 
Likes: YuengLinger
Feb 8, 2018
37
10
UK
I personally believe that even if they only have a concept camera and are not shipping for months, they will make some announcement at Photkina about a full frame mirrorless. Simply because they have people jumping ship all the time these days and they would be seen by the public as a tech follower of the others. Particularly with Nikon announcing their offering who, regardless of their actual sales position, has been their "nemesis" for many years.
By announcing something coming months down the line, they will cut sales of competitors products by a certain percentage as it will cause some to wait. If they do announce something concrete with an ETA of a couple of months in time for Christmas sales, they will double or triple that percentage loss that their competitors experience.
Would it be a smart move for Canon to give out a press release/announcement about their future FF mirrorless plans on the 22nd of August I.E jumping in right before Nikon's 'livestreaming special event' on the 23rd... Just a thought!
 

Mikehit

EOS 5D Mark IV
Jul 28, 2015
3,012
220
I don't know whether it would be 'smart' but it is certainly a valid tactic. However it is not one that I have recognised Canon as having done in the past so I don't think it will happen here.
There are rumours that Sony is waiting to announce some mega-spec camera soon after Canon and Nikon announce theirs as a real spoiler. I think where Sony have the edge at the moment is not so much the sensors as the processors they are producing - if you have the edge in processors you can move more data more quickly which opens the possibility of something high-MP images at as yet unseen frames per second, or video with high frame rate. The challenge they have is cooling the damned thing and that will likely mean a larger camera which they have shied away from so far...
 
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dak723

EOS Rebel T7i
Oct 26, 2013
937
78
If I remember correctly, the initial and most reliable rumors have always said an announcement on the new Mirrorless in the last quarter of 2018. We are not yet in the last quarter of 2018.
 

BillB

EOS Rebel T7i
May 11, 2017
788
53
I don't know whether it would be 'smart' but it is certainly a valid tactic. However it is not one that I have recognised Canon as having done in the past so I don't think it will happen here.
There are rumours that Sony is waiting to announce some mega-spec camera soon after Canon and Nikon announce theirs as a real spoiler. I think where Sony have the edge at the moment is not so much the sensors as the processors they are producing - if you have the edge in processors you can move more data more quickly which opens the possibility of something high-MP images at as yet unseen frames per second, or video with high frame rate. The challenge they have is cooling the damned thing and that will likely mean a larger camera which they have shied away from so far...
Sony has rolled out the A9, the A7RIII and the A7III fairly recently. That represents a fair amount of up front money in a stable to shrinking market. I wonder where they are in terms of their sales targets and whether they are in a frame of mind to roll the dice again.
 

Mikehit

EOS 5D Mark IV
Jul 28, 2015
3,012
220
Sony has rolled out the A9, the A7RIII and the A7III fairly recently. That represents a fair amount of up front money in a stable to shrinking market. I wonder where they are in terms of their sales targets and whether they are in a frame of mind to roll the dice again.
I think Sony definitely see a way to stay ahead of the curve by always having a camera in waiting to trump whatever it is that Canon and Nikon announce.
Now, given that Canikon release cycle is 4-5 years in the FF market, will Sony keep releasing at this rate? I doubt it. Firstly as you say is the money. But also, as I have said elsewhere, the cost-benefit curve will fall off quite rapidly.
40MP to 60MP? Who cares?
In-camera focus bracketing - nice...but how many will actually use it?
17 stops DR vs 15 stops? Who cares beyond a few pros? You only need to go onto Instagram and Flickr to see what the mass market think of blown out highlights and blocked shadows (hint: they don't care)
Yes, the enthusiasts will keep most manufacturers happy to a point, but in 4-5 years all brands will be pretty much on a level again and you will be left (again) with 'which name do I know' - and that will be CaNikon with Sony a meritable 3rd.

However, Sony have a habit of producing high tech stuff that is way ahead of whatever it is that the customer needs and then dropping out of it quite quickly when the customers do not prove to be as hungry for it as they first thought: Vaio laptops for example or Betamax as a lesser example. Both had distinct advantages when you looked at the drivers in isolation. The Vaio fitted the laptop brief perfectly for a portable system but to get something truly useful you had to bolt on all sorts of bits and pieces which people found a pain in the butt (that old interface/useability thing again being a far second to the technological capability).
Similarly with their camera gear, people like sharp images, and the Sony cameras fit that fantastically well. But as the fading camera market shows, the number of photographers for whom sharpness is a key driver is minimal, and as with Vaio haptics will play a part and I think Sony, like Olympus and Panasonic will move into larger bodies when people realise using a small form camera handheld all day can be uncomfortable. And once they do that they will move back into Canon territory.
And there is also the emotional side - newbies still want 'cameras like the pros use' and by the time the idea that that means DSLRs is dispelled, there is a good chance that CaNikon will be firmly entrenched in the mirrorless market and useability will beat technology in the deciding factors.

And (as with Vaio) will that 'meritable 3rd' be enough to keep them in the market? Their history makes me wonder.
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
You're conflating here. Buyers interested in a $2-3K FF camera have basically three options, two of which are several years old and long past peak sales, one of which is new and also the cheapest of the three. Price and novelty, not spec sheets, are the likely driver.



Which yields more profit – selling 150 cameras at $699 with a 10% margin, or selling 10 cameras at $3K with a 20% margin?
Actually, I think you’re conflating here- different demos purchase differently. Some will purchase based on novelty and price. Some will purchase based on novelty and specs. Specs matter, particularly with creators and influencers.

Bump a $2k FF camera with 20% margin up to 25 cameras sold and it’s a different story, isn’t it? About cost parity. Which is why Canon had to ask ourselves- “why aren’t we in the FF MILC market?” They want the Sony FF money demo and purchasers that Sony has found. Simple. So they will come out with a FF MILC camera with competitive specs.

Named “R,” for “Response to MILC demographic.”

:)
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
That's pure speculation. We don't know the standard production cost of the various cameras.

It could turn out that Sony is giving away their A7 III's at an asking price just a hair above their production cost in an effort to rack up unit sales to make "We're #1" announcements like we just saw in the news. Or perhaps Sony is selling a cut-rate A7 III to lure people into the ecosystem, only to hammer them with new lens prices.

Meanwhile, perhaps Canon is quietly making $200 profit per unit on that cheap EOS M you referenced b/c of production economies of scale.

- A
Certainly possible, but the fact remains that Sony is selling FF MILCs at $2K, and Canon wants in on this demo of purchasers. Why wouldn’t they? They notice that certain creators and influencers are buying a $2K Sony when they could be buying a $2K Canon. Canon wants that money and is creating a new line of FF camera(s) for it.
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
Actually, I think you’re conflating here- different demos purchase differently. Some will purchase based on novelty and price. Some will purchase based on novelty and specs. Specs matter, particularly with creators and influencers.

Bump a $2k FF camera with 20% margin up to 25 cameras sold and it’s a different story, isn’t it? About cost parity. Which is why Canon had to ask ourselves- “why aren’t we in the FF MILC market?” They want the Sony FF money demo and purchasers that Sony has found. Simple. So they will come out with a FF MILC camera with competitive specs.

Named “R,” for “Response to MILC demographic.”

:)
Oh, P.S. if it’s only about which products are new and “not several years old and past peak sales,” Canon could just release a couple new DSLRs, but instead are creating a new line of FF mirrorless cameras. For anyone with any intelligence, that will give a clue as to where the market is going ans what Canon is doing about it.
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
23,313
360
Actually, I think you’re conflating here- different demos purchase differently. Some will purchase based on novelty and price. Some will purchase based on novelty and specs. Specs matter, particularly with creators and influencers.

Bump a $2k FF camera with 20% margin up to 25 cameras sold and it’s a different story, isn’t it? About cost parity. Which is why Canon had to ask ourselves- “why aren’t we in the FF MILC market?” They want the Sony FF money demo and purchasers that Sony has found. Simple. So they will come out with a FF MILC camera with competitive specs.
I’d bet real money that many on this forum, and also DPR, will find the specs of a Canon FF MILC to be less than competitive. There will be much angst over how much better the Sony (and possibly Nikon) FF MILCs are in terms of specs. But Canon will sell more of them than Sony (and probably Nikon). Which will further confirm my point that the buying decisions are not being driven by spec lists (which, to remind you, was what I took issue with originally – your claim that Canon wants to tap into the FF MILC demographic for fun and profit is logical and correct, but is also a tangent).
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
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Oh, P.S. if it’s only about which products are new and “not several years old and past peak sales,” Canon could just release a couple new DSLRs, but instead are creating a new line of FF mirrorless cameras. For anyone with any intelligence, that will give a clue as to where the market is going ans what Canon is doing about it.
Canon created a new line of APS-C MILCs back in 2012. That was a clue as to where the market was going and what Canon did about it. The market remains majority DSLRs, but Canon has a major chunk of the MILC market and remains the dominant manufacturer for ILCs overall. I don’t expect a FF MILC to change any of that.
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
I’d bet real money that many on this forum, and also DPR, will find the specs of a Canon FF MILC to be less than competitive. There will be much angst over how much better the Sony (and possibly Nikon) FF MILCs are in terms of specs. But Canon will sell more of them than Sony (and probably Nikon). Which will further confirm my point that the buying decisions are not being driven by spec lists (which, to remind you, was what I took issue with originally – your claim that Canon wants to tap into the FF MILC demographic for fun and profit is logical and correct, but is also a tangent).
We’ll see- but they are already including (and will continue to include on their FF MILCs) some “competitive specs” such as 4K video that their market research has determined purchasers are interested in, so Canon actually disagrees with your theory about competitive specs.

And “fun?” Haha. I never said that- Canon would never do anything “for fun.” It’s all profit. And, as said ad nauseum, they see profit in the direction Sony is heading with FF MILC.
 

transpo1

EOS Rebel SL2
Jan 12, 2011
608
29
Canon created a new line of APS-C MILCs back in 2012. That was a clue as to where the market was going and what Canon did about it. The market remains majority DSLRs, but Canon has a major chunk of the MILC market and remains the dominant manufacturer for ILCs overall. I don’t expect a FF MILC to change any of that.
Yep, I know- I bought the original EOS-M- bad AF but great IQ and 1080p video quality.

Canon could have been much farther ahead in MILC development and profits with even more marketshare in MILC had they the vision and will to develop the FF mirrorless market first. They were afraid to cannibalize their DSLR lines, however. They would also have more buzz and excitement surrounding their products if they had not held back or crippled certain features such as 4K video, etc., but they chose to protect their Cinema EOS line instead.
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
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Canon could have been much farther ahead in MILC development and profits with even more marketshare in MILC had they the vision and will to develop the FF mirrorless market first.
Sony could have driven Canon out of the ILC business if they'd had the vision and will to develop an extensive portfolio of lenses and better ergonomics.

Gee, the woulda-shoulda-coulda speculation game is fun, right. But we should probably stick to reality instead of making crap up.


They would also have more buzz and excitement surrounding their products if they had not held back or crippled certain features such as 4K video, etc., but they chose to protect their Cinema EOS line instead.
Yes, it's important for Canon to protect the Cine from cannibalization by their consumer-level ILCs. There's a huge overlap in those markets, Canon really dodged a bullet there. That's also why the Cine lenses, even the ones with the EF mount, don't have autofocus – can't have those Cine lenses cannibalizing EF lens sales.

We now return you to your regularly-scheduled reality.
 

neuroanatomist

Spends too much time on this forum
Jul 21, 2010
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Yup, not very- after all this time, they’re still afraid to enable high quality 4K video on their cameras. But they enable a crippled version so they can put the 4K moniker on the box for marketing purposes.
Yet somehow, the EOS M series became the best-selling MILC line globally before having 4K on the box. Because, you know, specs are so important.
 

BillB

EOS Rebel T7i
May 11, 2017
788
53
So the EF40mm f2.8 is as about small as one can go. Why is there any reason to think that a shorter flange distance will enable smaller lenses at any length above 40mm? Again, how much of a size reduction is possible with a new mount with a shorter flange difference and is it enough to have practical value? (The practical value would vary from prison to person.)