Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]

ahsanford

Particular Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,968
501
unfocused said:
Some things to remember. The D500 was delayed far longer than the 7DII and in fact, most thought Nikon has abandoned that market segment. That meant a lot of pent up demand among Nikon shooters and a big jump in specs from the previous model. But, despite what we read on internet forums, it didn't necessarily mean Canon users were switching to Nikon.
Spot on. A return to robust 'pro crop' body sales figures for Nikon doesn't mean that they are at the expense of Canon. It could just be Nikon users who were getting by with a D7100 or D7200 and decided to upgrade.

And as global marketshare data at a segment level will never be made public, the only way we know that the D500 or D850 is truly kicking tail is if one of a few things happen:

  • Canon sheds it's highly scripted product lifecycles and 'rushes' a 7D3 or 5DS2/5DSR2 to market this year
  • Canon dramatically discounts the current 7D2 or 5DS rigs (i.e more than a year 3-4 product ought to be discounted) to keep Canon folks in the fold
  • Canon starts a new product line entirely directly to combat the D500 or D850. As the 7D# line is a 1-for-1 with the D500, I don't see it happening there. But a hig res X higher fps 'supercamera' in a new 3D or 4D line would be a clear tell that the D850 (and by extension, the A7R3) is indeed something Canon needs to respond to.

And so far, none have happened and we're only perhaps a year or so out from their original 4-ish y (5DS) and 5y (7D) refreshes, so 'rushing' at this stage isn't really rushing -- it's just executing to plan at this point.

- A
 

AlanF

Everyone sits in the prison of his own ideas. A E
Aug 16, 2012
5,224
2,223
unfocused said:
ahsanford said:
Also: why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?
We've already been told there will be no 7DIII in 2018. I don't see this as significantly impacting the 7DIII or 5Ds II release schedule. In fact, I'm anxious to see what is in the 90D, because it sets the floor for the 7DIII.

AlanF said:
...I see a lot of D500s in the bird hides here so the sales are probably moving along although Canon still leads.
ahsanford said:
...I had been waiting to see if the D850 or (especially) the D500 sales would spur Canon to shake up their release timing. The 7D3 and 5DS are surely under more competitive pressure now than they were at launch. But if Canon stays on it's 7D 5 year / 5DS 4-ish year cadence, it would imply that either those two Nikon rigs are not actually selling that well or (more likely) they are selling just fine but not stealing any Canon marketshare in the process.
Some things to remember. The D500 was delayed far longer than the 7DII and in fact, most thought Nikon has abandoned that market segment. That meant a lot of pent up demand among Nikon shooters and a big jump in specs from the previous model. But, despite what we read on internet forums, it didn't necessarily mean Canon users were switching to Nikon.

Anecdotal evidence like the brand of cameras one sees in bird hides is simply anecdotal evidence. And, it's not a zero sum game. More Nikons does not translate into fewer Canons.
Some people do switch, like Art Morris and Aresh Hazeghi, but most are reluctant to change ecosystems as they have lenses etc. For new people buying their first high level camera and lens, the D500 has better specs all round than the 7DII, and there is the tempting Nikkor 200-500 f/5.6. My first good camera was the 7D as it was the subject of rave reviews when it came out as being the best APS-C, and it led me into the Canon system. If I was starting again, I probably would enter the Nikon fold after reading the reviews.
 

Yasko

EOS 80D
Jun 9, 2017
112
18
4k with dpaf would already be a major step foward. Sidelined by a few tweaks here and there, and a 90D would be worthy of its name. The 80D already is a pretty good camera, compared to the market.
I am still happy woth my 70D, although I have to say that - for example - the mirror slap seems pretty strong compared to my new 6D mk II. Never had a 80D in my hands, perhaps that had already been adressed there...
 
May 22, 2018
1
0
Canon better get their act together. In the last nine months I have been to Alaska, Costa Rica and just now photographing migrating birds at Magee Marsh in Ohio. Slowly but surely one is seeing less Canon white lens. Lots of the new Nikon cropped sensor camera which I think is the 550 coupled with the 500 mm zoon. Professionals are using this. I know of people who are dumping Canon for these. Arthur Morris just dumped Canon for Nikon.

Canon really missed the boat by now having a 500 mm zoom. If one is starting out would you want this lens or the Canon 100-400 mm zoom?

Unless something soon happens based on what I have seen especially for wildlife photographers Canon's dominance is over. One can have endless patents but it's surperior product that counts.
 

unfocused

EOS 5D SR
fredbo said:
Canon better get their act together...
...Unless something soon happens based on what I have seen especially for wildlife photographers Canon's dominance is over. One can have endless patents but it's surperior product that counts.
Nice first post.

Funny, I seldom see Nikons when I'm out shooting. Lots of white lenses and usually some Sigma and Tamron. I guess it just depends on where you are and what you are looking for.
 

ahsanford

Particular Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,968
501
fredbo said:
Canon really missed the boat by now having a 500 mm zoom. If one is starting out would you want this lens or the Canon 100-400 mm zoom?
What little testing I've seen demonstrates the Canon is a solid mid-level L supertele while the Nikon is a more of a budget instrument. It's difficult to compare across mounts/sensors, but a 100-400L II with a 1.4x looks on par (if not better) with the naked 200-500 on the long end -- and without a teleconverter in the mix I don't think it's very much of a contest.

I will not deny the value of a 500 f/5.6 VR option for $1400, but I think you're comparing a Honda to a Mercedes here. And as for 'dominance' in the field, Canon not putting out an affordable superzoom or accelerating the 7D3 implies the D500 and 200-500 5.6 are not stealing any Canon marketshare.

- A
 

9VIII

EOR R
Feb 8, 2013
1,843
0
Ugh, Canon should have the 5DSMkII and 7DIII and 90D out next year (Edit: and 850D, but I did slightly mis-read the article as implying that next year will be slow too. We could still get two flagship bodies in one year next year).

Instead they’re letting Nikon eat their lunch for the moment.

Maybe they’re shifting some development to the new short flange mount? A 75MP Full Frame ILC would be a nice addition (and that density would mean they’d be making 30MP APS-C).
 

9VIII

EOR R
Feb 8, 2013
1,843
0
ahsanford said:
Also: why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?

(I would have expected that by now.)

- A
I was too busy today.
 

jolyonralph

Kodak Brownie
Aug 25, 2015
1,085
294
49
London, UK
www.everyothershot.com
ahsanford said:
Also: why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?
Because this is entirely expected?

Canon aren't going to launch a 7D III or a 5DSR II (both of which, I have been assured by people well connected to Canon, are at the prototypes-in-the-field stage and could easily be brought to market this year) at the same time as their new mirrorless camera.

So early 2019 for the 7DIII I guess.
 

Tugela

EOS 6D MK II
Feb 12, 2014
838
3
unfocused said:
ahsanford said:
Also: why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?
We've already been told there will be no 7DIII in 2018. I don't see this as significantly impacting the 7DIII or 5Ds II release schedule. In fact, I'm anxious to see what is in the 90D, because it sets the floor for the 7DIII.

AlanF said:
...I see a lot of D500s in the bird hides here so the sales are probably moving along although Canon still leads.
ahsanford said:
...I had been waiting to see if the D850 or (especially) the D500 sales would spur Canon to shake up their release timing. The 7D3 and 5DS are surely under more competitive pressure now than they were at launch. But if Canon stays on it's 7D 5 year / 5DS 4-ish year cadence, it would imply that either those two Nikon rigs are not actually selling that well or (more likely) they are selling just fine but not stealing any Canon marketshare in the process.
Some things to remember. The D500 was delayed far longer than the 7DII and in fact, most thought Nikon has abandoned that market segment. That meant a lot of pent up demand among Nikon shooters and a big jump in specs from the previous model. But, despite what we read on internet forums, it didn't necessarily mean Canon users were switching to Nikon.

Anecdotal evidence like the brand of cameras one sees in bird hides is simply anecdotal evidence. And, it's not a zero sum game. More Nikons does not translate into fewer Canons.
Well, if Nikon owners are upgrading, and hence the apparently good sales of their latest model, then who is buying the 5D and 7D? Presumably not Canon users upgrading because those are old cameras and they probably allready have them if they are Canon fans. Plus there is the a7III which seems to be selling very well. Whose market is that eating into? Can't be Nikon, because those folks are allready buying the D8500.

Seems to me that Canon has to be under competitive pressure at this point. When you see the decline in DSLR numbers recently, most of that is probably due to falling Canon sales. You have to wonder how long they can stand that before it begins to bite.

There are however other reasons why things like a 5DV and 7DIII might not be coming soon, namely the development time and technological shortfalls.
 

Talys

Canon 6DII
Feb 16, 2017
2,055
322
Vancouver, BC
ahsanford said:
fredbo said:
Canon really missed the boat by now having a 500 mm zoom. If one is starting out would you want this lens or the Canon 100-400 mm zoom?
What little testing I've seen demonstrates the Canon is a solid mid-level L supertele while the Nikon is a more of a budget instrument. It's difficult to compare across mounts/sensors, but a 100-400L II with a 1.4x looks on par (if not better) with the naked 200-500 on the long end -- and without a teleconverter in the mix I don't think it's very much of a contest.

I will not deny the value of a 500 f/5.6 VR option for $1400, but I think you're comparing a Honda to a Mercedes here. And as for 'dominance' in the field, Canon not putting out an affordable superzoom or accelerating the 7D3 implies the D500 and 200-500 5.6 are not stealing any Canon marketshare.

- A
I've played with the Nikon. The problem with that lens is that it is not a satisfyingly sharp at 500mm. The niche it fills is people who don't want to send a lot, and want a first party lens -- because I can't see how it is better than the Sigma in any way other than it that.
 
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ahsanford

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Aug 16, 2012
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Talys said:
I've played with the Nikon. The problem with that lens is that it is not a satisfyingly sharp at 500mm. The niche it fills is people who don't want to send a lot, and want a first party lens -- because I can't see how it is better than the Sigma in any way other than it that.
Yes. First party AF confidence @ 500mm without a T/C = a compelling value proposition over trusting Sigma or Tamron routines. I still do not know how they turn a profit on that lens other than pull-through of Nikon bodies. It's shockingly inexpensive.

I just see it as a homerun for the budding birder/wildlifer and not for those who live in a blind shooting at 500mm all day. But I defer to the birders -- I thankfully don't have that incurable condition. :D

- A
 

ahsanford

Particular Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,968
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jolyonralph said:
ahsanford said:
Also: why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?
So early 2019 for the 7DIII I guess.
The glut of non-Rebel-level cameras coming will be a bit of a logjam next year:

90D: June 2019
7D3: Nov 2019
5DS2: Dec 2019
1DX3: Mid 2020
5D5: Late 2020
6D3: Mid/Late 2021

(M5/M6 refreshes: No revision history to make a projection: could happen any time, but a 3y XXD schedule is as good a guess as any.)

Blue ones based on my prior estimates post, the others just rough estimates of how those lines time out.

But that list -- and particularly that potential logjam in the back half of next year -- gives us something to get excited about. There is nothing big body-wise on the docket in Q4 of this year through a good chunk of next year. That would be the large gap in a calendar we'd expect for something to get all the marketing spotlight, and that would be FF mirrorless. 8)

- A
 

Talys

Canon 6DII
Feb 16, 2017
2,055
322
Vancouver, BC
ahsanford said:
jolyonralph said:
ahsanford said:
Also: why is no one who has been screaming for an accelerated 7D3 or 5DS2 freaking out over this news?
So early 2019 for the 7DIII I guess.
The glut of non-Rebel-level cameras coming will be a bit of a logjam next year:

90D: June 2019
7D3: Nov 2019
5DS: Dec 2019
1DX3: Mid 2020
5D5: Late 2020
6D3: Mid/Late 2021

(M5/M6 refreshes: No revision history to make a projection: could happen any time, but a 3y XXD schedule is as good a guess as any.)

Blue ones based on my prior estimates post, the others just rough estimates of how those lines time out.

But that list -- and particularly that potential logjam in the back half of next year -- gives us something to get excited about. There is nothing big body-wise on the docket in Q4 of this year through a good chunk of next year. That would be the large gap in a calendar we'd expect for something to get all the marketing spotlight, and that would be FF mirrorless. 8)

- A
It would make sense for Canon to spread those out a little, because ownership of these cameras are not mutually exclusive. The 90D and 7D3 may be an either/or scenario, but I think there are plenty of potential 7D + 5D owners interested in both refreshes.

Personally, I think there will be a 5D consolidation. Plus, 1DX3 will almost certainly be ready for prime time for the Tokyo 2020 summer Olympics.
 

ahsanford

Particular Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,968
501
Talys said:
It would make sense for Canon to spread those out a little, because ownership of these cameras are not mutually exclusive.
Agree 100%. Those projections are when simply future dates might fall. I fully expect Canon to throw a quarter delay here or there so that all of these don't hit at once -- that's a mess for giving each product an exclusive spotlight for at least a quarter.

Talys said:
Personally, I think there will be a 5D consolidation.
Are you saying a future 5D supercamera is coming in the vein of the D850 / A7R3? High MP *and* high fps?

I only see Canon following suit here if the D850 is stealing Canon business hand over fist, and we don't have any indication that is happening yet. I think a yet-higher MP / 5 fps rig in the 5DS2/5DSR2 lets Canon continue to offer two pro FF bodies in the $3k neighborhood, which is something they very much want to keep doing.

- A
 

AlanF

Everyone sits in the prison of his own ideas. A E
Aug 16, 2012
5,224
2,223
Talys said:
ahsanford said:
fredbo said:
Canon really missed the boat by now having a 500 mm zoom. If one is starting out would you want this lens or the Canon 100-400 mm zoom?
What little testing I've seen demonstrates the Canon is a solid mid-level L supertele while the Nikon is a more of a budget instrument. It's difficult to compare across mounts/sensors, but a 100-400L II with a 1.4x looks on par (if not better) with the naked 200-500 on the long end -- and without a teleconverter in the mix I don't think it's very much of a contest.

I will not deny the value of a 500 f/5.6 VR option for $1400, but I think you're comparing a Honda to a Mercedes here. And as for 'dominance' in the field, Canon not putting out an affordable superzoom or accelerating the 7D3 implies the D500 and 200-500 5.6 are not stealing any Canon marketshare.

- A
I've played with the Nikon. The problem with that lens is that it is not a satisfyingly sharp at 500mm. The niche it fills is people who don't want to send a lot, and want a first party lens -- because I can't see how it is better than the Sigma in any way other than it that.
I woudn't want that lens either. It's too heavy and has real competition from the 150-600s. The interesting lens is the Nikkor 300mm f/4 PF, which is very sharp and light and goes well with the 1.4xTC. Currently, you would have to rip the 400mm DO II out of my dead hands, and I wish Canon would update its smaller and slower primes.