Canon Full Frame Mirrorless is Definitely Coming, and The Wait Won't Be as Long as We Thought

[chik0240]

Seems like to me using Ed mount in a fashion like the sigma milc is they way to go, mirrorless is kinda of about the instant peak on the exposed image and with more accurate AF, lack of mirror shaking etc.

From Sony I would say except for ultrawide lens where short flange distance really have an advantage for most lens design it just add back the extra length in the lens, which make the whole system even bulkier

And as the EF-M mount being designed for aps-c format I see non real reason for canon to make yet another mount to create trouble for themselves (either you produce tons of lenses in three mounts which is not comfortable to one another or you scrap the millions of EF lens out there and make existing EF lens user less likely to switch to mirrorless)

 

[ahsanford]

My guess is the first fullframe mirrorless might be the camera that quite a few people wanted the 6DII to be, with a derivative of the 5DIV sensor, 4K video, and maybe an articulated screen. (It might even have two card slots.) The price would be somewhere between the 6DII and the 5D Mark IV.

The Mirrorless Canon that has 5D4 sensor and features will not be priced somewhere between 6DII and 5DIV. It will be priced somewhere around 5DIV. I'm not sure why anyone would expect otherwise.

You may be reading Bill literally there. I don't know if he meant an on-chip ADC sensor like the 5D4 or if he meant the actual 5D4 sensor. My guess is the former.

But it's not just the sensor that will drive asking price. The rest of the spec sheet/design does indeed matter:

• 24 MP sensor + tiny body without a wheel, joystick or chunky grip + 5 fps + heavily cropped 4K + No IBIS + no tilty-flippy + no EVF at all (like the M6) + single card
  
  
• 24 MP sensor + 80D-sized body/grip with a wheel but no joystick + 7 fps + less heavily cropped 4K + No IBIS + tilty-flippy + EVF + single card
  
  
• 24 MP sensor + 5D-sized body with every button/wheel you want + 10 fps + full frame readout 4K + IBIS + tilty-flippy + EVF + dual cards

...would be the same sensor leading to three wildly different price points.

- A

 

[neuroanatomist]

no tilty-flippy + no EVF at all (like the M6)

I firmly believe Canon's first FF MILC will have at least a tilt screen, if not fully articulated, and will have an EVF. They're aiming for current Canon dSLR users, not smartphone (or P&S) owners, here.

IBIS

Not gonna happen.

 

[padam]

It obviously will have the EVF, it will have at least as many features as the M5. The rest is open for grabs, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see a 6D Mark II sensor in there with the same articulating touchscreen (so no 4k, it is mainly a stills camera, not a video camera) with Digic 8 and also roughly the same starting price.

It would frustrate people, but it will enable them to keep it profitable (development costs in check) and also stack up more models above it later down the line (like a mirrorless, more "professional" 5D-like camera or a more video-centric variant) just like they do with the SLRs (and also what Sony is doing, with the A7SIII they will soon have 10 FF mirrorless bodies in total)

 

[ahsanford]

no tilty-flippy + no EVF at all (like the M6)

I firmly believe Canon's first FF MILC will have at least a tilt screen, if not fully articulated, and will have an EVF. They're aiming for current Canon dSLR users, not smartphone (or P&S) owners, here.

IBIS

Not gonna happen.

Agree 100% on both. Was just making a point that the sensor alone does not dictate the price point.

My guess is that it will be spec'd like a 6D2 with the following added extras:

• Tilty-flippy touchscreen
• 4K, but surely a limited implementation of it
• On-chip ADC sensor -- but a modest resolution one, say 24 MP or so

- A

 

[woodman411]

I think eventually we'll see 3 or 4 full-frame mirrorless bodies from Canon, similar to the current dslr lineup, something like this:

- 6D-M: priority on smallest body possible with lower resolution, lower cost
- 5D-M: all-rounder with medium resolution and fps. Larger body than 6 series, and dual-slots
- 1D-M: priority on flagship speed, largest body
- 5DS-M: priority on resolution

If Canon follows the M series path as others have said, then we can expect something like a 6D-M device first. It will also help Canon work out the bugs and refine further for the higher end.

 

[ahsanford]

The rest is open for grabs, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see a 6D Mark II sensor in there

I think it has to be an on-chip sensor or enthusiasts will riot.

The 80D is on-chip now. I believe the 200D and M100 are as well. Why a $2k+ camera can't even offer a market-parity sensor while across the street Sony is offering 5D4 specs at a 6D2 price would leave Canon looking awfully underweight.

I know Canon plays games with spec/cost like this, but I just can't imagine *that* level of nerf-ery/profiteering being pursued here. This camera's a big 'first' for Canon, and I don't think it will be jammed with > 5 year old sensor tech.

- A

 

[ahsanford]

I think eventually we'll see 3 or 4 full-frame mirrorless bodies from Canon, similar to the current dslr lineup, something like this:

- 6D-M: priority on smallest body possible with lower resolution, lower cost
- 5D-M: all-rounder with medium resolution and fps. Larger body than 6 series, and dual-slots
- 1D-M: priority on flagship speed, largest body
- 5DS-M: priority on resolution

If Canon follows the M series path as others have said, then we can expect something like a 6D-M device first. It will also help Canon work out the bugs and refine further for the higher end.

Largely agree. Makes perfect sense.

Not sure a 1-series mirrorless will ever happen though. I see that camp of shooter being the ones with bumper stickers saying "They can pry my reflex mirror out of my cold, dead hands". But some > 20 fps mirrorless monster with the AF goods to match could change their minds someday. :

- A

 

[BillB]

My guess is that it will be spec'd like a 6D2 with the following added extras:

• Tilty-flippy touchscreen
• 4K, but surely a limited implementation of it
• On-chip ADC sensor -- but a modest resolution one, say 24 MP or so

- A

That is pretty much what I was thinking when I said it might be like the 6DII that the internet crowd wanted. As far as the sensor is concerned, using the 5DIV sensor would avoid development costs and use existing fab facilities, but who knows.

 

[padam]

I think it has to be an on-chip sensor or enthusiasts will riot.

The 80D is on-chip now. I believe the 200D and M100 are as well. Why a $2k+ camera can't even offer a market-parity sensor while across the street Sony is offering 5D4 specs at a 6D2 price would leave Canon looking awfully underweight.

Yes, but they are also very very similar sensors (only the M50 has a newer sensor but I don't think it is major improvement). If they develop a brand new sensor people will moan about the high price, so it is either this or that. Same thing with the battery as well, they will use either the LP-E6(N) or the LP-E12

As far as the A7III looks great on paper there are many features that aren't written on the spec sheet and simply don't work nearly as well as with a Canon camera, so Canon is not necessarily looking at that directly, they are just looking at their own system and how they can integrate it into that.

Seeing how well the DPAF works on the 6DII here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krGKwz-fLzs
a smaller mirrorless version with even better processor and DPAF would be a fine camera, no matter how much flaws it would have.
But of course it leaves plenty of room for newer better (more expensive) models...

 

[Don Haines]

If I were to guess:

A new mount, the EF-X mount. Sort of like the EF and the EF-S mount, where it would have the same flange distance as the EF mounts, so we can continue to use all our old lenses. It would have the mating collar similar to the EF-s mount, so that you could not mount an EF-X lens on a FF EF camera. This would allow a lens design that protruded into the camera body, very similar to EF-S.

This would give us:
EF mount - takes all EF lenses
EF-S mount - takes all EF and EF-S lenses
EF-X mount - Takes all EF, EF-S, and EF-X lenses, goes into crop mode when EF-S lens mounted

Canon could then release the line without any native lenses, and add EF-X lenses as released. Most EF-X lenses would tend to be medium to wide angle.

 

[ahsanford]

Yes, but they are also very very similar sensors (only the M50 has a newer sensor but I don't think it is major improvement). If they develop a brand new sensor people will moan about the high price, so it is either this or that. ..

Can you name me the last time Canon recycled a FF sensor in another body?

1DX = new
(maybe the 1DX sensor got recycled into the 1D C?)
5D3 = new
6D1 = new
5DS / 5DS R = new
1DX2 = new
5D4 = new
6D2 = new

I appreciate Canon can be ruthless in the crop sensor world, but when cameras pull in north of $2k, the new sensor fab seems to get paid for, doesn't it?

- A

 

[AvTvM]

Canon will transition from 2 SLR mounts in the past
* EF = FF image circle
* EF-S = APS-C image circle

to 2 mirrorless [shorter FFD] mounts in the future
* EF-"X" = full frame image circle
* EF-M = APS-C image circle

anything else makes less sense.

 

[BillB]

I think eventually we'll see 3 or 4 full-frame mirrorless bodies from Canon, similar to the current dslr lineup, something like this:

- 6D-M: priority on smallest body possible with lower resolution, lower cost
- 5D-M: all-rounder with medium resolution and fps. Larger body than 6 series, and dual-slots
- 1D-M: priority on flagship speed, largest body
- 5DS-M: priority on resolution

If Canon follows the M series path as others have said, then we can expect something like a 6D-M device first. It will also help Canon work out the bugs and refine further for the higher end.

Largely agree. Makes perfect sense.

Not sure a 1-series mirrorless will ever happen though. I see that camp of shooter being the ones with bumper stickers saying "They can pry my reflex mirror out of my cold, dead hands". But some > 20 fps mirrorless monster with the AF goods to match could change their minds someday. :

- A

At the high end, the 5DS is the next in line for refreshment, and it still doesn't have the new sensor technology. Canon may also seem some value in keeping the 5DIV and 1DXII on the market as OVF cameras with the associated AF system. Until recently, Canon has said that telephoto autofocus was an issue with mirrorless.

 

[peters]

Anxiously waiting if it'll be like 1D-expensive or only like 5D-expensive...

If it would be a realy professional tool and not another half hearted toy, I would totaly pay 1D-expensive for this camera.
I realy need a god damn useful 4k Canon Camera... the 1dx hdmi out causes freezes and file losses... the 5d is a total wreck with its crop, slow card slots with aweful codec and insane rolling shutter... and the c200 is not a photocamera (which I need additionaly) and not a fullframe camera...
all I want is a 5d without the bullshit... may it be mirrorless or not, I dont care.

 

[ahsanford]

Canon will transition from 2 SLR mounts in the past
* EF = FF image circle
* EF-S = APS-C image circle

to 2 mirrorless [shorter FFD] mounts in the future
* EF-"X" = full frame image circle
* EF-M = APS-C image circle

anything else makes less sense.

EF-S going away for solely EF-M someday is plausible, though it won't be soon. But EF-M has sneakily built up a decent spread of lenses and could conceivably pull this off without freaking out Canon crop devotees.

But EF to be phased out and wholesale replaced with mirrorless variants of EF lenses? You're dreaming. That would entail Canon rebuilding EF all over again at a staggering cost, all the while scaring EF users away from Canon in the process. Never going to happen.

A thin new mount + a select number of new mount FF lenses could happen, but they'll point users to an EF adaptor for the rest. No chance they rebuild most/all of EF from the ground up.

- A

 

[criscokkat]

I think the idea of having a EF compatible mount that protrudes into the body makes the most sense. The end game of having a smaller camera is reducing the *entire* size of the camera front to back to make it unobtrusive. This will never happen when you have a very wide aperture lens or a longer zoom lens. But a pancake lens that takes advantage of the extra 20 mm of room on the inside, or a ultra wide that does the same? That's a different story.

Although 90% of the current lenses in production could be shortened.

 

[mppix]

I think the idea of having a EF compatible mount that protrudes into the body makes the most sense. The end game of having a smaller camera is reducing the *entire* size of the camera front to back to make it unobtrusive. This will never happen when you have a very wide aperture lens or a longer zoom lens. But a pancake lens that takes advantage of the extra 20 mm of room on the inside, or a ultra wide that does the same? That's a different story.

Although 90% of the current lenses in production could be shortened.

To me, this makes the most sense: a mount that accepts EF lenses as well as EF-X lenses that can extend into the camera (being incompatible with existing EF cameras).

 

[unfocused]

Can you name me the last time Canon recycled a FF sensor in another body?

I don’t think that applies in this case. The different sensors are needed for product differentiation among DSLRs. There is no need for that with mirrorless because the body style itself is the difference. A Recycled 5D IV sensor would actually boost confidence in a new product and help sell it to enthusiasts.

 

[jolyonralph]

There won't be two EF-M mounts in the future because they don't need it. There are two sensible choices for a mount, and standard EF isn't EITHER of them.

EF-S was a hack to allow lenses to make use of the greater room behind the sensor to position rear elements nearer the sensor (which, if you listen to the doomsayers here is apparently a bad thing.)

This isn't needed for EF-M to go full frame.

A full frame lens can fit perfectly onto the current EF-M mount. So they don't need to invent a new mount, they already have one.

Plus, the advantage is, just like with the Sony FE mount, you can use the APS-C lenses on your FF mirrorless body - albeit with some kind of cropping depending on the vignetting - however people have found that some of the ultrawide zooms on Sony do give useable full-frame coverage, or near-as, at certain zoom levels. So they're not junk.


What is the other option? A full-frame mirrorless camera won't have the EF mount - but it COULD have the EF-S mount, for exactly the same reason. Your EF-S 10-22 suddenly becomes a great ultrawide angle zoom for your full frame mirrorless. You will even be astonished how much more of the full-frame area is covered by the standard EF-S 18-55 than you'd expect. And, of course, all of these will work great in crop mode, and if the new sensor has some kind of onboard ADC as it probably should, a crop mode would be a ton faster and therefore actually useful for doing whatever photography you'd normally have a 7D for.

Personally, I'd put my money on the EF-M mount for the first mirrorless camera. Canon haven't invested in this new mount just to have a minor low-end sideline.