Canon thinks the camera market will drop by another 50% over the next two years

RayValdez360

EOS RP
Jun 6, 2012
259
76
Maybe not from an image quality side as most people are pretty happy with the quality of the images available across the majority of dedicated cameras. Its usability, integration, easy share, internal editing capabilities etc etc

At the end of the day the camera is just that a dedicated stand alone tool. There is a lot they could do which would make owning, making and sharing images more intuitive and make you more likely to grab a dedicated device and reduce the need to move images over to another device to edit and share.

Its the reason the smart phone is so popular - A, because its always with you B, because its use case is much bigger than basic communication.

Im not saying I want a camera with the functionality of a phone etc but what smartphone companies are doing is computational photography because of the limitation of the size of the sensor and optics is pretty incredible. Imagine scaling that up from a phone sensor to a full frame sensor.

Something as simple as auto HDR on the iPhone and compare it to a DSLR and its night and day. Auto HDR that looks natural and is editable after the fact.

That is literally touching the surface.
i meanin the realm of actual photography. THey can make them more like phones or have a better os. Better in camera automation is cool even though for now you getter more options and better results with doing it outside the camera. But none of this is realy big innovations, just more convenience. i dont see it making a camera a must have. I never heard this " the 5d mk IV has a nice touch screen and easy to navagate menus, now I must by a professional camera" when it came out.
 

knight427

EOS T7i
Aug 27, 2018
78
89
With the release of these lenses below I expect newer EOS full frame bodies to continue at least until the year 2030,

2018
Canon EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM
Canon EF 600mm F4L IS III USM
Canon EF 85mm F1.4L IS USM
Canon TS-E 50mm F2.8L Macro
Canon TS-E 90mm F2.8L Macro
Canon TS-E 135mm F4L Macro
2017
Canon EF 70-300 F4-5.6 IS II USM
2016
Canon EF 16-35mm F2.8L III USM
Canon EF 24-105mm F4L IS II USM
2015
Canon EF 35mm F1.4L II USM
Canon EF 50mm f/1.8 STM
Canon EF 11-24mm F4L USM
2014
Canon EF 100-400mm F4.5-5.6L IS II USM
Canon EF 24-105mm F3.5-5.6 IS STM
Canon EF 400mm F4 DO IS II USM
Canon EF 16-35mm F4L IS USM

So I expect at least 2 more 1D bodies, 2 more 5D bodies, 2 more 5Ds bodies, 2 more 6D bodies and maybe 2 more 7D bodies.

I would be surprised if Canon were to continue announcing more EF lenses. It makes more sense to put scarce R&D money into RF system development.
Based on Canon's public statements, they would say they will make DSLRs so long their customers want them. Of course that actually means if there are enough customers who are willing buy them in sufficient volume.

Based on nothing but guessing, I think the 6D line is done. As a 6D owner with a small EF lens collection (5 lenses, 2 extenders), I just don't see a reason to stick to EF when RF is clearly where Canon is going. I'm sure I'd feel differently if I had a large collection of EF glass, but I'm thinking a lot of 6D and 6D2 owners are in the small collection boat with me. One contradictory element to this is that if EF lens prices depreciate enough, I might choose to buy more EF lenses after switching to RF. The problem is that I'd be most interested in the high end stuff (400 f/4 DO II and 600 f/4) which will hold its value much better than the rest.

In regards to 7D, I think one body at most. And if we haven't heard about it by mid 2019, I think it's done too. My rationale behind this is based only on anecdotal evidence that the 7D2 wasn't a good seller for Canon. I don't think they will have a high end APS-C body in both EF and RF, and I'm pretty sure they are going to release an RF APS-C body in time for the 2020 Olympics alongside the 1dX3, giving their Pro users the choice of FF EF or crop RF. Maybe they'll even release a fourth adapter using their speed booster patents.
 

scyrene

EOR R
Dec 4, 2013
2,366
198
UK
www.flickr.com
Its a catch 22 if they don't innovate and bring new product to the market then how can they expect to sell more? The product line is so stagnant and it has been since the 5DMKIII which was 2012, thats 7 years of not much happening or improvement. The schedule of updates is so long that there isnt really much to keep up with... hard to get excited.
"Stagnant" - translation: they haven't released anything Tom Scott liked enough to buy :rolleyes:
 

dolina

millennial
Dec 27, 2011
1,977
117
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Then again I could be wrong.

EOS bodies were introduced in 1987 and the last FD body was introduced in 1990 and then was discontinued in 1993.

Based on Canon's public statements, they would say they will make DSLRs so long their customers want them. Of course that actually means if there are enough customers who are willing buy them in sufficient volume.

Based on nothing but guessing, I think the 6D line is done. As a 6D owner with a small EF lens collection (5 lenses, 2 extenders), I just don't see a reason to stick to EF when RF is clearly where Canon is going. I'm sure I'd feel differently if I had a large collection of EF glass, but I'm thinking a lot of 6D and 6D2 owners are in the small collection boat with me. One contradictory element to this is that if EF lens prices depreciate enough, I might choose to buy more EF lenses after switching to RF. The problem is that I'd be most interested in the high end stuff (400 f/4 DO II and 600 f/4) which will hold its value much better than the rest.

In regards to 7D, I think one body at most. And if we haven't heard about it by mid 2019, I think it's done too. My rationale behind this is based only on anecdotal evidence that the 7D2 wasn't a good seller for Canon. I don't think they will have a high end APS-C body in both EF and RF, and I'm pretty sure they are going to release an RF APS-C body in time for the 2020 Olympics alongside the 1dX3, giving their Pro users the choice of FF EF or crop RF. Maybe they'll even release a fourth adapter using their speed booster patents.
 

Pape

EOS 80D
Dec 31, 2018
152
45
when mirrorless is better than dslr ,they stop dslr making .
Its not sure if mirrorless autofocus will never be as good
 

scyrene

EOR R
Dec 4, 2013
2,366
198
UK
www.flickr.com
Ive bought plenty through necessity. I just don't get excited about any of it anymore.Its replacing worn out gear rather than vastly superior gear.
Is excitement a prerequisite? I get less excited by a lot of things, but put it down to age, or changes in my temperament, rather than what is on offer being less intrinsically good. As others have said for a long time, in many ways, the days of 'vastly superior' are over, because the technology and market of digital cameras are mature. Until something technologically game changing comes along, it's just slightly better iterations for the time being - whatever company you look at. Sorry if I was too scathing btw :)
 

dolina

millennial
Dec 27, 2011
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Based on Canon's public statements, they would say they will make DSLRs so long their customers want them. Of course that actually means if there are enough customers who are willing buy them in sufficient volume.
I have not bought a new Canon body since the 5Ds R on June 2015.

On a lark I got myself a Sony a7R II on January 2016.

I had an opportunity to get the 1D X Mark II at distributor's pricing without sales tax within 6 months of release but skipped on that because it offered nothing significant enough to buy.

3 years later, nothing really new catches my eye. I'm more excited abut the next iPhone than another heavy camera that will gather dust in my camera cabinet.
 

knight427

EOS T7i
Aug 27, 2018
78
89
I have not bought a new Canon body since the 5Ds R on June 2015.

On a lark I got myself a Sony a7R II on January 2016.

I had an opportunity to get the 1D X Mark II at distributor's pricing without sales tax within 6 months of release but skipped on that because it offered nothing significant enough to buy.

3 years later, nothing really new catches my eye. I'm more excited abut the next iPhone than another heavy camera that will gather dust in my camera cabinet.
I was peeking at your 500px photos. Is that 800 mm f/5.6 lens also gathering dust? If so, you're making me cry a little bit. :cry:
 
Reactions: ethanz

Talys

Canon 6DII
Feb 16, 2017
2,044
312
Vancouver, BC
Based on nothing but guessing, I think the 6D line is done. As a 6D owner with a small EF lens collection (5 lenses, 2 extenders), I just don't see a reason to stick to EF when RF is clearly where Canon is going.
As a 6D2 and R owner, I pick my 6D2 over the R nine times out of ten, despite the R having a better sensor. The main reason is that I like the 6D2's performance with a flash or strobes better (mostly because the AF illuminator works perfectly), and a majority of my non-wildlife photography is with augmented lighting, with anything from a single bounce flash to a bunch of studio lighting and modifiers.

On the other hand, EF works great adapted on R. I don't think there's any reason not to get an R, if you have a collection of EF lenses. They don't feel at all like the lens wasn't natively made for the body.
 

dolina

millennial
Dec 27, 2011
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I was peeking at your 500px photos. Is that 800 mm f/5.6 lens also gathering dust? If so, you're making me cry a little bit. :cry:
Haven’t touched the wretched thing in about half a decade.

Long story short... Should have taken up grad school instead.

Take a look at the threads I made on CR to see what other dust has been collecting lenses. :ROFLMAO:
 
Aug 4, 2018
2
0
Has anyone been able to read the Nikkei interview? It is in Japanese & behind a paywall as far as I can tell.
My interest is that a 50% drop seems hard to reconcile with #ome of the projections in the information provided in Canon’s financial projections.
If anybody knows of a site with the interview or significant extracts, I would be interested
Thanks, Bert
PS: one extract fyi

65A9ECA2-5D30-481E-8626-BFAAAE9908CE.jpeg