Decline in DSLR sales explained

[old-pr-pix]

This presentation was made at PMA recently by Heino Hilbig of Mayflower Concepts, a management consulting firm.
http://youtu.be/bfCJDIf-NeA

A complex presentation, it explains that the reason for the rapid decline in camera sales - which is followed by a lag of two years by a decline in ILC's - is not (just) market saturation, nor is it (directly) smartphones... it is more catastrophic than that. It is because the photo industry has failed to embrace the principles of easy, fun use that the smartphone industry has made so commonplace. The photo industry has clung to film-like standards and proprietary approaches that cripple it's attraction to new users. The industry has made communications with other devices difficult and constructed user interfaces that are complex and awkward. He cites simple examples like aspect ratio differences between cameras and printers, various memory cards for different cameras, too many dials/buttons/knobs for new users, etc. The good news is that these are all fixable things.

Watch it and see what you think...

 

[Marsu42]

You got me, I won't sit through the whole 50min but I'll free to comment on tidbits people extract

The photo industry has clung to film-like standards and proprietary approaches that cripple it's attraction to new users.

Sure, but at the same time they manage to squeeze a lot of €€€ from old-school users with every new camera body or lens release.

The industry has made communications with other devices difficult and constructed user interfaces that are complex and awkward.

Seems like Canon is adapting recently - less crippled Rebel 760d with wifi remote shooting, home dock and whatnot to make the experience easy and seamless?

The good news is that these are all fixable things.

You bet - Canon aren't stupid, they just chose to the minimal amount of things to change to maximize profit. If they are cornered, I don't doubt they are able to innovate and "fix" things they have been deliberately delaying. Reminds me of this video, though it has been posted before twice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJBq0z2Vmu4

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

When did he figure that out? Its been pretty well known for a couple of years. People who bought P&S found they could not only get by with a phone, but the integration with social sites became a mandatory feature.

Many who upgraded their P&S to DSLR's found that they did not like the shallow depth of field, and with their phone, the depth of field is tremendous.

As a result of the changes, mostly serious photographers will be buying cameras, and those who don't want to spend the time and effort will stick with a phone, which is easy, works well, and the social site integration is a killer. I have a G1X MK II which will upload to social sites, but putting a note or message with it is very difficult and totally impractical. I must have a Wi-Fi connection as well, where phone coverage is almost universal in high population areas.

Big $$ is being spent trying to improve cameras for phones, and its going to continue.

IMHO, camera companies need to start concentrating on the photo enthusiasts as well as adding social integration features. Voice clips might be a innovation, and the social websites or intermediate site could convert voice to text.

 

[Marsu42]

Voice clips might be a innovation

... which is included in Magic Lantern for ages . But Canon is adopting some ML features recently like better auto iso, bulb timer, intervalometer, "handheld mlu", maybe spot metering - so we'll see what they'll copy next.

 

[unfocused]

You got me, I won't sit through the whole 50min but I'll free to comment on tidbits people extract

No offense intended, because I greatly respect Marsu's opinions, but I don't believe in commenting on links that I don't read or view. So, I listened/watched the presentation (while multi-tasking -- photo editing on my computer, listening, watching on my tablet)

Anyway, I think he makes some valid points that really should come as no surprise to anyone. DSLRs ARE too much work for most people. Some of that is necessary, but much of it is not. Once again, one of the things he references is the lack of touch screen and inter-connectivity which plagues DSLRs.

Totally ridiculous that Canon (and Nikon) continue to refuse to put touch screens on top of the line DSLRs. I defy anyone who has used a 70D to argue that higher end cameras would not benefit from touch screens. Yet, we have this ridiculous concept that they aren't "professional."

And, to continue my ongoing and oft-repeated rant: there is absolutely no reason why someone with a smart phone should be able to access photoshop and perform a few edits and then upload that photo to a cloud service, while someone with a $3,000 DSLR cannot do the same.

This is the irony – most of the technology that would make using DSLRs easier and more enjoyable already exists and has existed for years, yet camera manufacturers continue to drag their feet in routinely incorporating the entire package of inexpensive, user-friendly options across the entire line of cameras.

His main point, and he is correct about this, is that camera manufacturers have fallen behind because using DSLRs and MILCs is not easy and fun for most people. More people are taking and sharing pictures than ever before in history, yet the best technology for doing that is losing out to inferior technology.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Voice clips might be a innovation

... which is included in Magic Lantern for ages . But Canon is adopting some ML features recently like better auto iso, bulb timer, intervalometer, "handheld mlu", maybe spot metering - so we'll see what they'll copy next.

Thanks for the information, its good to know, but more is needed. A possible way to integrate to a social site is to upload a image and voice clip from camera to facebook or twitter, or any of the other social sites and somewhere along the line convert it to text.

A whole system is needed if a camera is to be integrated into social websites like phone cameras are. I suggested voice clip to text simply because the keypad on a camera is unusable for me, and the Siri Application that Apple uses does a fair to good job.

 

[jrista]

Totally ridiculous that Canon (and Nikon) continue to refuse to put touch screens on top of the line DSLRs. I defy anyone who has used a 70D to argue that higher end cameras would not benefit from touch screens. Yet, we have this ridiculous concept that they aren't "professional."

I think that's the inverse of the question that needs to be asked. Do professionals WANT that stuff? Personally, I don't really care if Canon puts a touch screen on their xD lines or not...it might be useful in the menus, but the way I actually use the camera for actually doing photography, the LCD is off and black. I use the buttons and dials for everything, frequently without ever removing my eye from the viewfinder.


Adding more technology is fine, but why expend the resources doing it if the statistics (whatever they may be, just making a case here) show that most of your buyers wouldn't actually care about or use the feature much of the time, if any of the time? In the professional (or semi-pro or avid enthusiast) world, I think a lot of Canon's sales come from return buyers who are looking for something familiar. I also think that most focus more on the traits that actually affect IQ, vs. a new (and certainly potentially useful) way of interacting with certain features of the camera. If someone has all the necessary procedural memory to control Canon DSLRs because Canon has stuck with the same key button layout for each line for a while now, a touch UI suddenly becomes a backburner item.


I think the consumer grade lines are totally different. The xxD and xxxD/xxxxD Rebel lines are catering to an entirely different audience. Things like touch screens, or LTE and WiFi, internet accessibility, maybe some built-in app features like Instagram or Facebook, etc. are not only useful features, but as the video was getting at, essential features for that segment of the DSLR market to survive. But that's an entirely different market segment, at least the way I look at it. It's the segment that isn't catering to return customers who want familiarity and the ability to instantly access critical functionality at the press of a button, because having that procedural-memory/muscle-memory speed and accuracy when using the device isn't the most critical thing for consumers. The most critical thing for consumers is (apparently, these days) the social aspects of photography.


In that respect...even IF Canon and Nikon and the rest manage to somehow meld smartphone and DSLR into a usable device...are people actually going to give up the convenience of their existing and easily accessible pocket cameras (smartphones) for something larger, bulkier, and still more complex (interchangeable lenses, at the very least)? Smartphones are like the disposable camera of the modern age: Tough to beat for the average consumer.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

I thought a touch screen would be great on my G1X MK II, but actually trying to use it did not work out, my fingers are too large, and there are other issues.

The one feature that is nice, it the ability to AF on a point you touch, but this is mostly because there is no viewfinder. I'm not sure its worth the hassle on a pro level DSLR.

 

[Marsu42]

You got me, I won't sit through the whole 50min but I'll free to comment on tidbits people extract

No offense intended, because I greatly respect Marsu's opinions, but I don't believe in commenting on links that I don't read or view.

Very commendable but I dare to mention that the whole science works with 3rd party summaries. It's absolutely ok to let someone credible and able get the gist from a source and then comment on these specific bits.

Otherwise, how can you ever write something on a CR article - do you always read the original source, the patent, the japanese original, the press release. And last not least it's a r-u-m-o-r site so I feel free to relax a bit on stringent methods ...

... but of course I knew your comment would come, so I made sure I write that I didn't see the whole thing. Heck, on CR usually people don't even read the last few posts before replying

Anyway, I think he Totally ridiculous that Canon (and Nikon) continue to refuse to put touch screens on top of the line DSLRs. I defy anyone who has used a 70D to argue that higher end cameras would not benefit from touch screens. Yet, we have this ridiculous concept that they aren't "professional."

As Vespasian mentioned: pecunia non olet. I doesn't matter for a manufacturer if one € earned is from educated customers or people stupid enough to believe any self-created or inherited concept of what's "pro" or not - like touch screen, swivel screen, pop up flash, whatnot.

Actually it's a great thing from Canon's perspective, saves marketing costs - everyone will know that the 5d4 is "pro" if it looks right, no matter what it does and esp. no matter what the competition has.

If people don't have fun shooting with a €2000 crop dslr and come to realize it's basically the same sensor as in a €500 model - so what? They've already bought the thing after all, so let 'em vent their anger on CR. Will it make 7d2 customers go p&s? No? Will it prevent them buying a 7d3? No - unless they buy a 5d4 first :->

 

[LDS]

more catastrophic than that.

Sure. Too many dumb, clueless and brainless users discovered they can produce an image - often just of themselves. A real catastrophe.

a management consulting firm

The apex of people without a clue. Smoke vendors who make you believe they know everything - and who never got one right.

"Those who can, do; those who can't, teach"

 

[mackguyver]

The industry has made communications with other devices difficult and constructed user interfaces that are complex and awkward.

I don't have time to watch it now, but to me, this is the #1 issue. People, especially younger people want to share their photos right away. As far as I know, there aren't any serious compacts or DSLRs that do what you can do with a smartphone - i.e. snap, process, send/post to social networks & friends. Canon has made some inroad there with in-camera processing (of RAW), support of WiFi cards and now WiFi, but no one has made it simple or fast. Here's what no one has done:

1. Make a compelling upgrade to a smartphone (e.g. EOS M style, with interchangeable lenses)
2. Link photo to camera (once via Bluetooth), link Canon app to social networks/email/SMS
3. Provide interface to edit and send photos via touchscreen on the back of the camera (no phone interaction needed).

The first camera company to do this and make it simple and fun will have a huge lead over the competition. I believe Joe Morgenstern at the Wall Street Journal wrote something similar about this last year and said that whoever does this first will crush the other camera makers sales.

 

[brad-man]

And, to add insult to injury, Canon neglected to include the print button on their flagship crop camera!

I certainly agree with the proposition that long-time DSLR users are much more forgiving of the lack of social media inclusion than the vast majority of new users will be.

 

[amigo]

1. Make a compelling upgrade to a smartphone (e.g. EOS M style, with interchangeable lenses)
2. Link photo to camera (once via Bluetooth), link Canon app to social networks/email/SMS
3. Provide interface to edit and send photos via touchscreen on the back of the camera (no phone interaction needed).

I totally agree. Users are now demanding modern touch screen user interfaces similar to what they experience with an Android device an iPhone or iPad.

Even this year's Volkswagen Jettas DVD player/Radio/GPs units run Android.

Canon should replace their proprierary rinky dingy Digic processors with the fastest mobile phone processor they can find, run Android on the camera, and fully embrace people or groups developing apps for the devices. With faster processors comes the ability to perform more advanced noise reduction algorithms, and also the ability to compress to H.265 video, which allows the capture of very high quality 10 bit color 4k video at high isos and at high frame rates for slow motion, and at reasonable file sizes, without the blockiness and ugly moire that's plaguing Canon's DSLRs usinh H.264 compression.

The DSLRS should be able to connect to my mobile phone via Bluetooth thus gaining access to the internet wherever I happen to be.

This is not rocket science, the technology has been there for a while, so please Canon smell the coffee and wake up before it's too late.

 

[wsheldon]

1. Make a compelling upgrade to a smartphone (e.g. EOS M style, with interchangeable lenses)
2. Link photo to camera (once via Bluetooth), link Canon app to social networks/email/SMS
3. Provide interface to edit and send photos via touchscreen on the back of the camera (no phone interaction needed).

I totally agree. Users are now demanding modern touch screen user interfaces similar to what they experience with an Android device an iPhone or iPad.

Even this year's Volkswagen Jettas DVD player/Radio/GPs units run Android.

Canon should replace their proprierary rinky dingy Digic processors with the fastest mobile phone processor they can find, run Android on the camera, and fully embrace people or groups developing apps for the devices. With faster processors comes the ability to perform more advanced noise reduction algorithms, and also the ability to compress to H.265 video, which allows the capture of very high quality 10 bit color 4k video at high isos and at high frame rates for slow motion, and at reasonable file sizes, without the blockiness and ugly moire that's plaguing Canon's DSLRs usinh H.264 compression.

The DSLRS should be able to connect to my mobile phone via Bluetooth thus gaining access to the internet wherever I happen to be.

This is not rocket science, the technology has been there for a while, so please Canon smell the coffee and wake up before it's too late.

I agree that simplifying connectivity and access to social media is the key, but why push all the tech onto an already-complex (and harder to update) camera body?!? Anyone who wants to tweak their images and post them right to social media is already accustomed to doing that with their phone, and phone/tablet apps, and will almost certainly have their phone with them when they're out shooting.

What I'd like to see is dead-simple pairing of your phone to your camera, as mackguyver listed as #2, then killer apps that RUN ON THE PHONE for viewing, tweaking, tagging and uploading. As things stand now you practically need an advanced degree to use the 6D/70D WiFi, and good luck if you need to use if for more than one scenario (e.g. EOS Remote and then switch back to phone). My 6D WiFi manual lives in my camera bag. An industry standard quick-connection protocol over Wifi/Bluetooth/NFC for pairing cameras to phones (like wireless zero config for computers) is sorely needed.

As for software, EOS Remote is way too simplistic and lacks social media hooks. Shuttersnitch is much closer, but that's too oriented towards professional workflows and real-time shoot previews for clients.
We badly need software for viewing, rating, tweaking and uploading photos that you just took with your camera (that's sitting in your bag with Wifi/Bluetooth on).

Address those 2 issues and then we can turn the conversation back to image quality over simplicity.

 

[sanj]

I agree with the basic thought of this. Simple cameras with high IQ that most can use would be a big hit. I personally know many people who do not pick up a camera as they find it too complex. iPhones and such work perfect for them.

 

[old-pr-pix]

Clearly using our gear is a lot more important than discussing what Canon, or others, are doing right or wrong. But, I'm selfish - I want new stuff, I want better stuff. And, I know that current sales fund R&D. While Canon is #1 in market share, they are #1 in a market that has been almost in free-fall for the past couple years. CIPA shows 2014 shipments of DSLR+MILC fell another 19+% and forecasts a further drop in 2015 of 14%. That's not good! P&S shipments are worse, down 35% in 2014 following a 31% decline in 2013.

Sales to consumers are needed to fund development. The enthusiasts and pros can't support it all. I just don't want to go back to the film era conditions where Canon had one pro body and it was upgraded on a ten year cycle. "New" lenses were rare and sometimes consisted of only a coating change from S.C. to S.S.C.

I'm hoping Canon figures this out... soon.

 

[PhotographyFirst]

Updating the cameras to act like phones without being phones isn't going to help anything. People like the phones because they have "free" cameras that add virtually no weight.

These are the same masses that were happy with Polaroid photos back in the day. Any current phone takes vastly better photos than Polaroid, so the quality threshold has been surpassed.

I travel the National Parks quite often and see countless people with smart phones. They always ask me to take photos of them with scenery in the background, which I gladly oblige. I have to admit, they take amazing photos! They are fast, and I can figure out how to use one in less than 10 seconds. Find the icon that looks like a camera and then press the capture button. Some of the phones these days can also do great HDR and also do super fast burst speeds.

Canon doesn't need to fix their DSLR cameras (although touch screens are huge for pinch zooming to check focus and scroll way faster than using the Atari joystick).

Canon needs to be putting their brand reputation into products people want, which are phones. It's like they are missing the ship like Kodak did when everyone went digital.

We probably won't see much innovation from Canon for a while, since their lower end market no longer bankrolls the R&D funding.

 

[Hillsilly]

How have SLRs/DSLRs adavanced in the last fifty years?....ummmmm??...... I can come up with the introduction of autofocus and the convenience of digital image capture. I'm sure there must be others, but its not like the camera companies are really pushing the boundaries of new ideas. The really important question is - do they have to? In my opinion, no. Until five years ago, if you wanted to take high IQ photos, you had one choice - the DSLR. Now, there are several options and the enthusiasts and professionals that are left buying DSLRs are people who are serious and interested in that format. I don't see that as a bad thing.

 

[old-pr-pix]

I get your point, but there have certainly been more innovations than you credit since 1965. Reference the Canon FP, a "pro" camera released in Oct. 1964. Note: no light meter built-in, no automatic control of aperture, no program mode, no evaluative metering, 36 shots per roll max., 1/1000 max. shutter speed, no hot-shoe control of electronic flash (but it did have FP sync. to work with flashbulbs), no radio link to slave other flashes, etc.

 

[noisejammer]

I think PhotographyFirst nailed it ... phones offer quite acceptable image quality for almost everyone.

Sure, you can offer a dumbed down interface on a DSLR (but the green box is there already.) The truth is that some people - perhaps most people - are unwilling to learn new skills. I know a wildlife photographer who owns a 300/2.8, 600/4 and a couple of 1D3s bodies... and who has no desire to ever take the camera out of P (for "professional") mode. Until I showed her Snapseed, even cropping was too much hassle...

I submit that falling sales are nothing to do with ease of use - potential customers already have a camera that does everything they want... and it came "free" with their phone. They may even have a DSLR that disappointed them because they thought "Better camera = better images," a fiction that every manufacturer lives by. Although their images may improve with effort, this is not disclosed up front. Since they're loathe to blame their own incompetence, they become former customers who view this is misleading advertising.

I'll end with this -
When I started photography 40-odd years ago, an SLR was a treasured possession - you might expect it to last fifteen years or more. Few people had first class cameras (as a measure, I was the only chap in my army regiment.) That was considered "normal." Is the expectation of market thrashing realistic?