EOS 7D Mark III Coming in March 2018 [CR1]

[jolyonralph]

Have you calibrated your lenses. You need to.

Another reason why the switch to mirrorless can't come soon enough

 

[vscd]

Have you calibrated your lenses. You need to.

Another reason why the switch to mirrorless can't come soon enough

It's not the fault of the cam if your lenses are uncalibrated... the only thing I'm missing in the Canon-firmware is an autocalibrationfeature. From my 6-7 lenses I only had to calibrate a single one. So much for that.

 

[Sharlin]

We love to compare Canon with RIM or Nokia and predict that Canon surely would follow them or follow them if Canon doesn't innovate. But we forget one thing. In early 2000s mobile phones became smart devices with addition of camera, music player, game player, movie player etc. They became 'smartphones' where other functionalities became more important than just making phone calls or exchanging text messages. iPhone didn't make better calls than Nokia phones, but they were much smarter than Nokia devices in other functionalities.

BTW, RIM was a complete non-player globally. It basically only existed in North America.

Nokia had smartphones since 2001. In 2007 I had a Nokia smartphone much "smarter" in most ways than the first iPhone. (BTW, it had a camera far superior to even early 2010s Androids and iPhones.)

What Apple did correctly was bringing the smartphone to non-geeks, by adding an intuitive touchscreen-based UI. But for a long time the iPhone was a status symbol for the upper middle class.

Then came Samsung and Android and they followed apple. Nokia lost.

Yes. Google is what really killed Nokia, bringing a version of the iPhone experience to the masses. Basically Google won by having a different business model—by licensing the Android OS and ecosystem to different hardware vendors.

 

[ahsanford]

Late to the thread, sorry -- a few thoughts on the original post:

• One one hand, I don't think Canon will put out a 7D3 so quickly. I know I am a broken record on this, but Canon historically does not release its sequels (Mark II, III, etc.) faster than the prior lifecycle -- see NorthLight graphic below. In a generic case, if a Camera Mk I was on the market for 4 years before the Mk II is announced, Canon won't announce a Mk III any faster than four years after that. In fact, it's usually longer than 4 years with the next one as Canon is wildly proliferating the number of ILC lines they are offering (see my edits in same graphic). It stands to reason that a company fighting on so many fronts can't crank out bodies in the same timeframe each refresh.
  
  
• On the other hand, the 7D line is nutty because Canon did the whole 'you'll get a nicer than usual 7D1 firmware upgrade instead of a 7D2' deep into the 7D1's lifecycle which extended the usefulness of the camera. That (plus Nikon abandoning this market segment for a while) allowed Canon to run a 5 year lifecycle for the 7D1. It's possible that Canon will simply drop the 7D3 out 4 years later as (a) it'll be a relatively dead year FF wise and they need something to push and (b) the D500 + $1400 200-500 f/5.6 lens is a nontrivial threat to business.
  
  
• I think the unique new feature will not be something tectonically noteworthy. IBIS or MILC/hybrid VF = zero chance as others have said. I think it far more likely it's something 'platform-level useful' that will eventually be used across the line, similar to the impact DPAF, anti-flicker, etc. have had. Automatic AFMA comes to mind as others have said.

My guess is still that the 7D3 won't come out next year. Canon famously doesn't change how it does its business in response to others. They stick to the plan.

- A

 

[ahsanford]

Also, while we dissect the 7D2 / D500 feature sets and sensor performance to death here, is there any chance Sony 'pulls an A9' here and puts out some comical beastmaster spec-sheet APS-C rig?

What happens if they launch a silly 15+ fps rig with AF similar to the A9 and a few really nice GM lenses just for crop? Would that disrupt / modify Canon's plans?

- A

 

[lightthief]

... “first time sensor technology in a Canon DSLR”....

I think it will be a dual-pixel-high-DR feature. Not every wildlife shooter needs this, but maybe Canon can move some of the "the 80D has better DR" people to the more expensive 7DIII.

At least the 7D has two Digic that can handle the data with still usable fps... like the coming 5DSRII. And those fans will like that feature.

lightthief

 

[neonlight]

..but,ahsanford, the graph shows a shortish cycle for 5DI/5DII. My suspicion is that Canon will release a 7D3 Q1/Q2 next year because several users appear to be disappointed with the images. Good, but not quite there, which some attribute to the AA filter. Every time I check focus on my 7DII with various lenses it appears to be spot on, so I'd certainly like no AA filter.
But with tilty/flippy. Suspect 24 MP and several f/8 compatible AF points, all of which would be welcome.
Probably will see with one or two new lenses (xx-500 f/5.6?) or maybe the 600 DO but doubt the pennies would cover that.

 

[midluk]

... “first time sensor technology in a Canon DSLR”....

I think it will be a dual-pixel-high-DR feature.

Forget about that. This does not work for the out of focus areas, especially for highlights that are clipping in the high gain channel. You would get bokeh balls that are divided in the center and show only one half or have different brightness (depending on how you combine the information) .

 

[ahsanford]

..but,ahsanford, the graph shows a shortish cycle for 5DI/5DII.

Let's dig into that (just using NL's chart as a quarterly-level read of things*):

5D1 lifecycle*: 3 years
5D2 lifecycle: 3 years
5D3 lifecycle: 4.5 years

*length of it's box before next model, let's not split hairs on hard dates of obsolescence.

So you may be misreading my original statement of 'Canon never goes faster'. Canon either has a set schedule for refreshes (see chart, Rebels, X0D, etc.) or bigger ticket items come out whenever they are ready -- but 'whenever they are ready' never seems to be faster than the last revision's lifecycle.

Grab any other product line on that chart and repeat the exercise -- same trend. Refreshes only come as quick as the prior refresh did and no faster, and that's been so for about 10 years. There are exceptions and hiccups and such (earthquakes affect supply, huge gaps between announce and ship, etc.) but the trend is generally true. I personally chalk this up to a host of factors (contracting market for some time, Canon is proliferating so many new lines, and because Canon can get away with it (EF mount, best branding, marketing, etc.)).

My suspicion is that Canon will release a 7D3 Q1/Q2 next year because several users appear to be disappointed with the images.

That's wild supposition. DXO scores, reviews, photo forums, etc. don't seem highly correlative to sales, but having a high quality product with an EF mount sure seems to. 8) I fully get that folks want something EXMOR-y in there without an AA filter, but that entire phrase screams internet forum banter and not the market at large. I'll say it for the umpteenth time: we are not the market. So what we want or what we think is a clear consensus of an internet forum is not representative of the market at large.

I am not intending to diminish your point or disrespect you here. I'm just saying that Canon has a really thick skin to folks being bummed at 1-2 things not making it into the camera.

- A

 

[unfocused]

Late to the thread, sorry -- a few thoughts on the original post:

One one hand, I don't think Canon will put out a 7D3 so quickly. I know I am a broken record on this...It stands to reason that a company fighting on so many fronts can't crank out bodies in the same timeframe each refresh

I think your second point is stronger than this one. From what I understand, Canon was undergoing some production changes during the life-cycle of the original 7D, that may have also contributed to the long delay. Plus, as you say, there was no competition at the time, so no need to hurry.

The 7D has always been an unpredictable line, so I don't think what Canon "usually" does is really relevant.

In addition, for production reasons Canon has got to want to get it's on-chip conversion technology into the 7D. The 80D sensor is already starting to get a little long in the tooth, so it makes sense for Canon to unveil a brand new sensor next year in the 7DII and then push it down to the 90D the following year, as they did with the original 7D and 60D. Discussions about what Canon "usually" does ignore the anomaly of Canon introducing a sensor in a lower-level body and then pushing it upmarket -- 70D to 7DII. My guess is they are anxious to put the newest and best APS-C sensor in a 7DIII and then return to pushing the technology down into lower cost models.

...It's possible that Canon will simply drop the 7D3 out 4 years later as (a) it'll be a relatively dead year FF wise and they need something to push and (b) the D500 + $1400 200-500 f/5.6 lens is a nontrivial threat to business.

If the 500mm/600mm unicorn zoom actually appears (either in "L" or non "L" form) then it's a certainty they will want to pair it with a new 7DIII. Even if the unicorn doesn't appear though, Canon really needs a 7DIII with f8 autofocus across the board to keep the 100-400 f5.6 plus 1.4 teleconverter as an attractive option.

I think the unique new feature will not be something tectonically noteworthy. IBIS or MILC/hybrid VF = zero chance...Automatic AFMA comes to mind as others have said.

Completely agree. Some of the hopes and dreams being floated on this thread are downright silly.

 

[docsmith]

My guess is still that the 7D3 won't come out next year. Canon famously doesn't change how it does its business in response to others. They stick to the plan.

- A

I apologize if this is a double post. The system kicked me out right as I was hitting "post."

A quick summation.

Normally, I would agree with you. Canon does try to stick with a plan and does not seem to be overly reactionary to the market. But, I can see a shorter cycle time for the 7DIII for a few reasons:

• As you point out, there was a mid cycle firmware upgrade and little direct competition at the time.
• Overall, Canon seems to have shorter cycle times for consumer products and longer for its upper level. I see ~3 years for the 7D line fitting in nicely in the scheme.
• Canon decisions always make the most sense to me if I look at them from a business perspective. Specifically here, they tend to make sure that they release something every year to help keep revenue steady. The M5, 80D, 5DIV and 1DX were 2016, the 6D2, 77D, T7i/800D, SL2 and M6 where announced in 2017. Even looking at NL chart, the 7D, 5Ds and maybe the 90D or M5 II make the most sense for 2018. Canon keeps revenue coming and new models drive revenue. (BTW, that is one reason the M1 FF mirrorless rumors in 2019 make so much sense).
• Price point of the 7D has dropped to pretty low levels.

My life does not depend on this outcome. But I do buy into the rumor.

 

[ahsanford]

My question is this: what is the big new product for Canon in 2018? If past is prologue:

Won't be a new 1DX camera

Won't be a new 5D camera

Won't be a new 5DS/R camera

Won't be a new 80D camera (a more month specific refresh prediction I posted on another thread pegged this in mid-2019)

...so in my mind, the big 2018 development needs to be:

• The Year of the Lens II ;D
• An accelerated 7D3 release
• An accelerated 5DS/R 2 release
• Something new at mid-level or higher. Something north of $1000 that isn't on the current docket -- FF mirrorless, dedicated 4K video rig with EF mount, etc.

So, yes, the 7D3 could happen in 2018 just so there aren't any crickets chirping from Canon next year.

- A

 

[transpo1]

My question is this: what is the big new product for Canon in 2018? If past is prologue:

Won't be a new 1DX camera

Won't be a new 5D camera

Won't be a new 5DS/R camera

Won't be a new 80D camera (a more month specific refresh prediction I posted on another thread pegged this in mid-2019)

...so in my mind, the big 2018 development needs to be:

• The Year of the Lens II ;D
• An accelerated 7D3 release
• An accelerated 5DS/R 2 release
• Something new at mid-level or higher. Something north of $1000 that isn't on the current docket -- FF mirrorless, dedicated 4K video rig with EF mount, etc.

So, yes, the 7D3 could happen in 2018 just so there aren't any crickets chirping from Canon next year.

- A

It has to be the rumored FF MILC. Canon has the sales, but if they are smart, they should realize they need to reclaim the excitement and buzz surrounding other FF cameras. With this buzz comes the halo of reinvigorated interest in their lenses and entire line of cameras and solidifies their place for years to come. FF Mirrorless with competitive features (including 4K video, of course) is the only product that will do that.

 

[ahsanford]

It has to be the rumored FF MILC. Canon has the sales, but if they are smart, they should realize they need to reclaim the excitement and buzz surrounding other FF cameras. With this buzz comes the halo of reinvigorated interest in their lenses and entire line of cameras and solidifies their place for years to come. FF Mirrorless with competitive features (including 4K video, of course) is the only product that will do that.

And if there is nothing else 'big' coming out next year, the new FF mirrorless platform would gobble up attention. It's Canon marketing/planning/scheduling 101, it would appear.

Not convinced it will be FF mirrorless in 2018 (as Canon is famous for those weird/niche releases you don't expect), but it would not surprise me one bit either.

- A

 

[transpo1]

It has to be the rumored FF MILC. Canon has the sales, but if they are smart, they should realize they need to reclaim the excitement and buzz surrounding other FF cameras. With this buzz comes the halo of reinvigorated interest in their lenses and entire line of cameras and solidifies their place for years to come. FF Mirrorless with competitive features (including 4K video, of course) is the only product that will do that.

And if there is nothing else 'big' coming out next year, the new FF mirrorless platform would gobble up attention. It's Canon marketing/planning/scheduling 101, it would appear.

Not convinced it will be FF mirrorless in 2018 (as Canon is famous for those weird/niche releases you don't expect), but it would not surprise me one bit either.

- A

Guess it depends on when Nikon releases theirs :

 

[docsmith]

It has to be the rumored FF MILC. Canon has the sales, but if they are smart, they should realize they need to reclaim the excitement and buzz surrounding other FF cameras. With this buzz comes the halo of reinvigorated interest in their lenses and entire line of cameras and solidifies their place for years to come. FF Mirrorless with competitive features (including 4K video, of course) is the only product that will do that.

And if there is nothing else 'big' coming out next year, the new FF mirrorless platform would gobble up attention. It's Canon marketing/planning/scheduling 101, it would appear.

Not convinced it will be FF mirrorless in 2018 (as Canon is famous for those weird/niche releases you don't expect), but it would not surprise me one bit either.

- A

We have seen rumors on the M50. I am curious about that, as Canon already seemed covered with the M100 and M10. But it looks like there will be something in between. We know it comes in a kit with the EFm 15-45, so it is APS-C.

My guess is that Canon will announce 2-4 bodies next year, so pick from the M5II, T7/1400D, 7DIII, 5Ds II, FF MILC, the D90, 1DXC II, or something "new."

If I were to guess:
2018: First half: M50, T7/1400D and 7DIII; second half: 5Ds II, and maybe M5/M6 II
2019: D90, FF MILC, and M5/M6 II

I would think that BSI would be one of the next "innovations." I would expect it to come in on an APS-C camera. So, 7DIII, D90, or M5/M6 II make sense.

Anyways, I think that is my quota for speculation for the day.

But again, as Canon has expanded the number of bodies they have in the market, they are also expanding the number of product releases per year which drives sales. While they do not always, they tend to mix in pro and consumer bodies each year. On the "pro" level, I really only see the 7DIII, 5DR II and FF MILC and maybe a "C" camera for 2018 and 2019.

 

[eosuser1234]

isnt the new sensor tech just the first time that 4k in an APS-C for Canon DLSr?

 

[FramerMCB]

At this point Canon simply can't do anything to make photogs stop switching to Sony. Can it?

Given the actual sales figures we end up seeing I'm sure Canon and it's share holders will be happy to continue the current trajectory of Sony, Nikon and Canon sales in both DSLR's and MILC's. You do know Canon sell more DSLR's and MILC's than Nikon and Sony combined?

That's what RIM said ... remember them, they practically invented the smartphone. Smug and resting on their laurels, they now are mostly dead and utterly irrelevant.

That's what everybody says when the facts are presented. Yet each year/month/week/new release/rumor/thread we are told Canon are dead, each year they post better figures when compared to their competition. I'm not saying they know everything, I am saying they seem to know their market much better than us and the never ending cries of 'they are doomed' sound more like the boy who cried wolf given the year on year in year facts.

That's exactly what everyone said about RIM for almost 10 years!

PS ... in every industry, the future belongs to the bold and aggressive, and right now that looks like Sony.

I only have this response for you... Beta-Max anyone? A Sony video tape format that was clearly better than VHS. For clarity, etc. (Not in all aspects mind you.) but in nearly every way better than VHS. What happened to Beta? Gone the way of the Do Do bird when the industry (player manufacturers and perhaps more importantly - Hollywood) finally settled on the VHS format as the one to use.

Sony creates a lot of great and new tech with so many different camera models but I don't see how that model is sustainable in the long run if they can't get their service up to snuff with Cano-Nikon standards and imagine the overhead for parts for warranty/repair coverage. I have no direct experience with Sony products but I have read in multiple places from multiple users that Sony quality (longevity of product) is not on the same level with these brands: Canon, Nikon, Olympus, Panasonic, Fuji... (I don't mention Leica because they are in a whole different category.)

 

[unfocused]

Setting up a new 5DIV and I was reminded of one 1DX feature that I really hope is incorporated into the 7DIII: "Save settings to card."

I know nothing is free, but I can't imagine this would be that costly to implement and it would be one more feature that would set make the 7D series more like a mini 1DX.

 

[ahsanford]

Setting up a new 5DIV and I was reminded of one 1DX feature that I really hope is incorporated into the 7DIII: "Save settings to card."

I know nothing is free, but I can't imagine this would be that costly to implement and it would be one more feature that would set make the 7D series more like a mini 1DX.

As would spot metering at the selected AF point. If only we'd get that cell phone / Nikon D5500 level technology in the next 5D. :

- A