Exploring the "new" used price for the Canon 70-300mm L and 100-400mm L

[jdramirez]

This is pre-mature as we haven't seen photos from the new 100-400L, but the presumption is that the image quality will be outstanding as many of the new offerings from Canon have been recently. With the presumption that the image quality for the new 100-400mm mkii will be superior to both the mki version and the 70-300mm L, so much so that present owners of the aforementioned lenses opt to sell their zooms to defray the cost of the purchase of the mkii.

I foresee an initial flooding of the market which will drive down prices, and after a few months, the price should rise and plateau into its "new" used price.

For historical used pricing, I'm considering the used data from camel camel camel which holds an rudimentary archive of lowest used prices. This doesn't provide data regarding the condition of the lens in question nor does it consider the reputation and reliability of the seller.

70-300mm L

First... new pricing without consideration of discounts, negotiations, or rebates. September we saw a price drop in the minimum advertised pricing for the 70-300L. The price went from $1600 to $1450 (USD). With consideration of a regression line/curve, the used price was around $1290 to $1180 prior to the price drop. After the price drop there was a small market correction and the price $1150 to $1040. Considering the time from September 1st through the present, the price for the lens is around $1080. (The frequent drop in price down to $890 is ignored because that is a scammer posting on Amazon).

So with the 100-400 mkii's release, we should see the 70-300L's price further depressed... I'm estimating down to $950 with a standard deviation of $50... so as low as $900 for a very good condition lens. The price should rebound shortly thereafter to around $1000.

100-400mm L (mki or classic or whatever yall want to call the original)

Secondly... new pricing without consideration of discounts, negotiations, or rebates. The price has been $1550 to $1700... but that's not really a fair picture considering there has been a rebate avialable for the lens more than there hasn't been. So the new price after rebate is roughly $1300. There is a good deal of recent fraudulent postings with the 100-400mm... so I'm going to just cut to the chase and estimate that the used selling price has been roughly $1250 to $1030 with a recent recent price drop in the last two weeks as the rumors of the mkii version became to pick up steam.

So with the 100-400 mkii's release, we should see the 100-300L's price further depressed, though it seems to have already begun... This may sound like a broken record, but I'm estimating down to $900, but I see a greater deviation... I can see $800 consistently being the asking price and being quickly snatched up. Used prices will plateau around $950...

This is all conjecture... and I'm not really in the market for either lens. i wouldn't mind finding out that I'm wrong about the 70-300 and the price goes even lower (at which point maybe I'm in the market for the lens). It's also possible I'm entirely wrong... the release of the 24-70mm f/2.8L mkii went up in price for a used lens... so future telling is still a mystery.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

I've seen a local seller asking $800 for his used 100-400mmL The listing has been around for a week. Prices seem to be a little bit soft.

http://spokane.craigslist.org/ele/4744425634.html

I see ebay prices running in the $800 to $1100 range. Mine is in top condition and would likely bring $1100 before ebay and Paypal took $100+.

 

[jdramirez]

Why isn't there an alternative to ebay? Everyone seems to hate it... it just seems like someone would have come along and created competition.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Why isn't there an alternative to ebay? Everyone seems to hate it... it just seems like someone would have come along and created competition.

I don't hate it, I've sold $10's of thousands worth of cameras and stuff (ebay says $145,000) on my personal account over the past 15 years, and a lot more using my business accounts.

They do take a big chunk, but my items are realistically priced, carefully described and I have very good feedback. They often sell in minutes or hours. I also list on Craigslist, but items sell so fast on ebay that its usually not worth my effort to answer e-mails from those wanting it for half price.

I look at actual selling prices for a item that is similar in quality to mine and price around that level. I often put a sharp photo taken with the camera or lens in the listing which helps.

 

[TeT]

I've seen a local seller asking $800 for his used 100-400mmL The listing has been around for a week. Prices seem to be a little bit soft.

http://spokane.craigslist.org/ele/4744425634.html

I see ebay prices running in the $800 to $1100 range. Mine is in top condition and would likely bring $1100 before ebay and Paypal took $100+.

Thats cheap, $800.

 

[TeT]

Why isn't there an alternative to ebay? Everyone seems to hate it... it just seems like someone would have come along and created competition.

I don't hate it, I've sold $10's of thousands worth of cameras and stuff (ebay says $145,000) on my personal account over the past 15 years, and a lot more using my business accounts.

They do take a big chunk, but my items are realistically priced, carefully described and I have very good feedback. They often sell in minutes or hours. I also list on Craigslist, but items sell so fast on ebay that its usually not worth my effort to answer e-mails from those wanting it for half price.

I look at actual selling prices for a item that is similar in quality to mine and price around that level. I often put a sharp photo taken with the camera or lens in the listing which helps.

+1

.... between eBay and Paypal they take .0911 cut on average... I can live with that for the excess exposure my items get and the quick sales.

 

[TeT]

the 100 400 has been a heavily sold item on eBay for most of this year... The 70 300 has not been following suit..

I am not seeing much of a hit coming on the used price of the 70 300. The 100 400 might drop a little initially but will settle back to the low side of its current range.

 

[e17paul]

The 70-300L will always have a place for its decent reach whilst still being easy to pack. I also find it more hand holdable than other zooms because of its short physical length. The 100-400L with four stop IS will take some of its market away, but the bigger impact on resale is likely to come with the arrival of the rumored 70-300 STM.

The 70-300 STM may not be a big hit with the pro and enthusiast crowd here, but will be with a wider audience when it provides a better alternative to the existing cheaper 300 zooms. I ended up buying the L after trying the cheapest options first, and not being happy until I tried the L. Future buyers may stop at the STM.

I will be interested to see the optical comparison between the already announced 24-105 STM and the 24-105L. I know that the price difference is slight at the moment, but that will not last. That will give us more of a clue on the future options for 70-300.

 

[bluenoser1993]

In addition to these two lenses, I wonder how big the increase in 70-200 IS II on the market will be? I'm sure I'm not the only one to have bought it with a 2x because it seemed like a versatile option to the very old 100-400, but then discovered 2.8 wasn't really required for my use and not completely happy with the 400 the combo provides. As soon as I see image quality of the new 100-400, my 70-200 is for sale. I'm excited about the new lens bare, as well as with 1.4x on a 7DII. Provided the price is still good for the 70-200, I don't want that much of a hit after only 2 years of light use.