Full frame mirrorless market share: Canon already has 22% of the market in Japan

Canon Rumors Guy

EOS 1D MK II
Jul 20, 2010
7,527
285
Canada
www.canonrumors.com
BCN rankings have released the latest numbers for the full frame mirrorless camera market in Japan, and Sony’s near 100% market share took a big hit after the release of the Canon EOS R and the Nikon Z series cameras.
Full frame mirrorless market share breakdown (Japan):

Sony 67%
Canon 22.1%
Nikon 10.4%

Sony – Blue // Canon – Red // Nikon – Green
These numbers may be inflated since Canon and Nikon just released their full frame mirrorless systems. It’ll be interesting to watch over the next few months whether or not Canon and Nikon can maintain or even increase their market share in the segment.
If we had to make a prediction, Canon will likely have 50% of the market by this time next year once they’ve released a few...
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Mt Spokane Photography

I post too Much on Here!!
Mar 25, 2011
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But, how do you intrepret the figures? A bunch of pre-orders all dropping in a few days do not equal market share, except for those few days. I expect the number to drop as potential Canon buyers get their camera. After a year, what will the figure look like? Canon also knows this, so expect to see more camera variations and more lenses pushed out as soon as they can get them ready.
 

BillB

EOS 6D MK II
May 11, 2017
977
199
But, how do you intrepret the figures? A bunch of pre-orders all dropping in a few days do not equal market share, except for those few days. I expect the number to drop as potential Canon buyers get their camera. After a year, what will the figure look like? Canon also knows this, so expect to see more camera variations and more lenses pushed out as soon as they can get them ready.
I think there is a lot of uncertainty about what happens next. Sony, Canon and Nikon all have to think about maintaining/growing sales and what it is going to take to make that happen. We shall see.
 

JBSF

EOS 80D
Dec 19, 2014
110
52
I'm curious why Nikon didn't get nearly the bump that Canon got. From reviews to date, it seems that the Z7 is a great camera. Does Canon have that much greater of a following in Japan than Nikon?
 
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knight427

EOS T7i
Aug 27, 2018
86
98
But, how do you intrepret the figures? A bunch of pre-orders all dropping in a few days do not equal market share, except for those few days. I expect the number to drop as potential Canon buyers get their camera. After a year, what will the figure look like? Canon also knows this, so expect to see more camera variations and more lenses pushed out as soon as they can get them ready.
It's sales in a month. For every 100 FF mirrorless cameras sold in Japan in October, 67 were Sony, 22 were Canon, 11 were Nikon (roughly). It will change every month, influenced heavily by whoever is launching a new product that month.
 

BillB

EOS 6D MK II
May 11, 2017
977
199
I'm curious why Nikon didn't get nearly the bump that Canon got. From reviews to date, it seems that the Z7 is a great camera. Does Canon have that much greater of a following in Japan than Nikon?
Well, if there are more Canon owners than Nikon owners and Canon owners are buying the R and Nikon owners are buying the Z.... Price might have something to do with it too.
 

docsmith

EOS 6D MK II
Sep 17, 2010
841
192
I forget...but I am pretty sure these are based on "shipped" units, not "sold." Thus, Canon/Nikon can have quantities shipped in months before the cameras were available to the public.

If so, these initial numbers reflect more of expected demand than actual demand. Give them awhile and those two will meet. But initially, it is really what demand planners for retailers expected to sell.
 

tmroper

EOS 80D
Sep 22, 2016
144
45
The Sony "installed base" of FF is still pretty big, and I'd like to see a chart comparing total units going forward. More like X% of the world is currently using Android, iOS, etc. Although, I realize it's more difficult to determine when sold units are actually being used, vs broken, in the land fill, etc.
 

canonmike

EOS T7i
Jan 5, 2013
97
42
I think there is a lot of uncertainty about what happens next. Sony, Canon and Nikon all have to think about maintaining/growing sales and what it is going to take to make that happen. We shall see.
Concur. Gotta love that all the mfgs are now putting pressure on Sony and each other, as well. Works for me.
 

Mt Spokane Photography

I post too Much on Here!!
Mar 25, 2011
15,300
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I'm curious why Nikon didn't get nearly the bump that Canon got. From reviews to date, it seems that the Z7 is a great camera. Does Canon have that much greater of a following in Japan than Nikon?
Price is a factor in sales volume, and the Z7 was not as well received by reviewers based on its price. At $1200 more than the R, it should perform much better than it does. Its a fine camera, but pretty much overpriced as most new camera releases are.

Then, they must divide sales between the Z6 and Z7 with a fixed number of Nikon users, each one will be limited in initial sales volume.
 

Mt Spokane Photography

I post too Much on Here!!
Mar 25, 2011
15,300
564
I forget...but I am pretty sure these are based on "shipped" units, not "sold." Thus, Canon/Nikon can have quantities shipped in months before the cameras were available to the public.

If so, these initial numbers reflect more of expected demand than actual demand. Give them awhile and those two will meet. But initially, it is really what demand planners for retailers expected to sell.
Not shipped units but sold units. BCN has deals with a large percentage of the larger camera retailers and receives sales figures from them. They don't provide data on cameras only, but all kinds of products, appliances being a big part of their market info.

You may be thinking of CIPA.
 
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djack41

EOS 80D
Jul 12, 2014
122
36
I'm curious why Nikon didn't get nearly the bump that Canon got. From reviews to date, it seems that the Z7 is a great camera. Does Canon have that much greater of a following in Japan than Nikon?
Maybe because Canon has the a much larger market share of DSLR users and they are already invested in Canon lenses.
 

Woody

EOS 6D MK II
Jul 20, 2010
1,124
34
I want to thank Sony. Without them, we wouldn’t have this new mount. I think Canon may actually be taking this seriously.
The slow evolution to MILCs is inevitable simply because the manufacturing process is mostly automated, thus lowering the production cost.
 

Talys

Canon 6DII
Feb 16, 2017
2,052
317
Vancouver, BC
I'm curious why Nikon didn't get nearly the bump that Canon got. From reviews to date, it seems that the Z7 is a great camera. Does Canon have that much greater of a following in Japan than Nikon?
My speculation: Autofocus on the Z7 doesn't feel very good with adapted (Nikon) lenses, while adapted Canon lenses feel great on the EOS R. That greatly limits the number of people will buy one as another camera that will work well with their existing gear.