How big is the possibility of an 400mm 2.8 III in 2018?

[xps]

I´d like to buy an 400mm III 2.8, if it will appear on the horizon in 2018.
But how big is the chance?
Back in 2009, I was looking for the MK I version of it, but it was much to heavy.

Sony will announce the 400 2.8 this year, with (rumored) an superfast AF and lightweight.
Would that be an pressure for Canon to compeed, as their 400 2.8 lens is 8 or 9 years old?

 

[neuroanatomist]

Seems unlikely.

 

[scyrene]

<0.5%

 

[BeenThere]

Not much data to base a prediction on except age and popularity of the current lens. If you are worried about getting last year’s model, then rent when needed until the situation is clearer. Renting may also help you decide as to whether or not you really want this beast. Also try out the 400 DO II. You may find that you like the smaller lens better.

 

[zim]

<0.5%

 

[scyrene]

<0.5%

;D

 

[RGF]

somewhere between slim and none and slim just left town

 

[AlanF]

The Mk II is the sharpest super telephoto, much lighter than the MK I and with excellent IS and all the modern features of superteles. And it was introduced just 7 years ago, not 8 or 9. So, I would give the probability of 0 of a Mk III in 2018.

 

[hendrik-sg]

The mark ii superteles were a huge jump in price compared to the mark i versions. If it's successor would be a DO lens it might be a little smaller and lighter, or it could get a built in extender.

Other than that, i mark iii will not be able to give you improvements which will set apart your work from work with the current lens. This for following reasons:

- IS is as good as it gets, there in no better available in any brand
- it's the lightest comparable lens already
- IQ is as good as it gets, even with extenders, so any improvement can be only marginal. Already the mark i lens was really good, so even the ii version was not a revolutionary improvement, just with extenders the ii version is noticable better.

Fazit is, if you can afford it and have use for it, get the ii version, you will like it. And get it soon, there will be a lunar exclipe in july Even if you are sure you want the iii version when it comes out, you can sell it in for a not so big loss. If you can get one refurbed or used, you may even be able to sell it almost without loss.

 

[pwp]

Brian Carnathan's review of the 400mm DO II:
https://www.the-digital-picture.com/Reviews/Canon-EF-400mm-f-4.0-DO-IS-II-USM-Lens.aspx
Yikes it's HALF the weight of the f/2.8. But only f/4. That's a lot less light getting through to the sensor when you're under lights at a sports assignment. For action, f/2.8 rules.

Expect an updated 400 f/2.8 III any time soon? Certainly not this decade. If you need a 400 f/2.8, don't delay, just get it.

-pw

 

[AlanF]

Brian Carnathan's review of the 400mm DO II:
https://www.the-digital-picture.com/Reviews/Canon-EF-400mm-f-4.0-DO-IS-II-USM-Lens.aspx
Yikes it's HALF the weight of the f/2.8. But only f/4. That's a lot less light getting through to the sensor when you're under lights at a sports assignment. For action, f/2.8 rules.

Expect an updated 400 f/2.8 III any time soon? Certainly not this decade. If you need a 400 f/2.8, don't delay, just get it.

-pw

If you want a real comparison of the MTFs of the 400mm f/2.8 II and the 400mm f/4 DO II look here: https://www.lensrentals.com/blog/2016/08/the-sort-of-great-400mm-shootout/

The f/2.8 is king, but the DO matches it for the middle of the frame.

f/2.8 is great for sports. But, there are other activities. On a puffin in flight shoot, my 400mm DO II gave me dozens of keepers but my neighbours with 400mm f/2.8 got none because they couldn't swing their lenses fast enough.

 

[Ozarker]

It will be released this year at the exact same moment I have the money to buy it. :'(

 

[edoorn]

I've had the pleasure of using the 400 2.8 mk II for a day in the Mara and dang, that lens is super super sharp. No idea why they'd want to release a mark III. For lightweight options there's indeed the 400 f/4 DO. And the 300 2.8 II gives you great sharpness, a relatively lightweight lens and will look good with a 1.4 converter too (or 2x for that matter)

 

[RGF]

<0.5%

Optimist. 0.01378249 +/-= 0.5 %