New mid-level DSLR and EOS M5 Mark II the next ILC’s from Canon? [CR1]

SwissFrank

EOS 80D
Dec 9, 2018
189
64
a FF-dedicated lens system isn’t going to affect that too much
Fair enough... as someone who's only had EF, EF-M, and now RF, I forget that EF-S is even a thing. Is the EF-M system sucking the lifeblood out of EF-S? If not why not? If there's a really good reason for that, then maybe I'm wrong about the death more or less of SLR FF.
 

Tom W

EOS 80D
Sep 5, 2012
141
64
Tom's prediction (and totally opinion based) - new sensor will be in the 25ish MP range as an APS-C, will be able to work out 4K at 60 with the proper processing, quad-pixel AF, next step up in DR from the 80D, which was an improvement over its predecessor.

Also, same sensor tech transferred to a high-pixel count full frame body at around 65 MPx, (1.6X1.6X25-ish), with dual processors and some crazy 4K or better. Something big has to happen to get into the high-end mix with the Sony fans.
 

neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
Jul 21, 2010
23,830
1,003
Fair enough... as someone who's only had EF, EF-M, and now RF, I forget that EF-S is even a thing. Is the EF-M system sucking the lifeblood out of EF-S? If not why not? If there's a really good reason for that, then maybe I'm wrong about the death more or less of SLR FF.
In Japan (the geography in which mirrorless cameras are more popular than anywhere else), the top three best-selling ILCs for the past few months have been the Kiss X9 and X9i (SL2/200D and T7i/800D) trading off for first and second place, with the Kiss M (EOS M50) in third. The first FF ILC on the list is the Sony a7III which has been running at about #20, followed by the EOS R ranked in the mid-30s and the 6DII running at about #40. That’s based on BCN data, which comprises about 2/3 of sales in Japan.

The bottom line is that APS-C ILCs (and m4/3 MILCs from Oly/Pana) far outsell FF ILCs. We discuss FF cameras a lot on here, but this is yet another reminder that this forum is not at all representative of the real world.
 

transpo1

EOS 7D MK II
Jan 12, 2011
711
65
The available data suggest that DSLR demand is dropping, but not as quickly as you suggest. Moreover, the data suggest that the decline in DLSRs continues to moderate. The data also suggest that MILC demand is not really rising. Market share is slowly shifting (although DSLRs still comprise the majority), due to decreasing DSLR sales. In other words, the DSLR is far from dead.
I believe the OP is saying that they will die off quickly, not that they are already dead- don't worry ;) I take a more conservative approach to this- the high-end DSLR will hang around for some photography pros for quite some time but most hybrid shooters, prosumers, hobbyists, and video shooters will almost all be on MILC within the next 5-10 years.
 

rrcphoto

EOS 5D MK IV
Jun 20, 2013
2,505
146
Tom's prediction (and totally opinion based) - new sensor will be in the 25ish MP range as an APS-C, will be able to work out 4K at 60 with the proper processing, quad-pixel AF, next step up in DR from the 80D, which was an improvement over its predecessor.

Also, same sensor tech transferred to a high-pixel count full frame body at around 65 MPx, (1.6X1.6X25-ish), with dual processors and some crazy 4K or better. Something big has to happen to get into the high-end mix with the Sony fans.
Canon will never compete with Sony. Canon's only hope is to stay close to Sony or start using Sony sensors. If Sony has made a full DR global shutter sensor for the A7S III, then all bets are off. Sony's officially won the race. Canon has nothing even close, as they are still working with FSI single layer global shutter sensors outside of patent R&D.

Sony does a bazillion yen in R&D around smartphone sensors that have to be built to a higher technical level than anything Canon would ever dream of.

All their innovation comes from smartphone sensors and they sell them by the boatloads. What does Canon have? maybe some 1" sensors, but other than that, all their APS-C full frame sensors which they sell right now around 5 million a year. Sony sells what? hundreds of millions smartphone sensors now? Sony's share of the CIS sensor market is 15 TIMES greater than Canon's in terms of revenue.
 
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3kramd5

EOS 5D MK IV
Mar 2, 2012
2,846
262
Canon will never compete with Sony. Canon's only hope is to stay close to Sony or start using Sony sensors. If Sony has made a full DR global shutter sensor for the A7S III, then all bets are off. Sony's officially won the race. Canon has nothing even close, as they are still working with FSI single layer global shutter sensors outside of patent R&D.

Sony does a bazillion yen in R&D around smartphone sensors that have to be built to a higher technical level than anything Canon would ever dream of.

All their innovation comes from smartphone sensors and they sell them by the boatloads. What does Canon have? maybe some 1" sensors, but other than that, all their APS-C full frame sensors which they sell right now around 5 million a year. Sony sells what? hundreds of millions smartphone sensors now? Sony's share of the CIS sensor market is 15 TIMES greater than Canon's in terms of revenue.
The fact that canon current competes with Sony would seem to undermine your claim that they never will.
 

rrcphoto

EOS 5D MK IV
Jun 20, 2013
2,505
146
The fact that canon current competes with Sony would seem to undermine your claim that they never will.
they don't really. their sensors still don't match Sony's at low ISO's in terms of DR, and they can't match what Sony has in terms of Aptina's dual ISO patent.
Canon's sensors have a much slower readout rate, and they have nothing outside of R&D patents that match the A9 sensor.
Sony Electronics has a 16 bit ADC 62MP and 100MP full frame sensors already done just waiting for camera bodies.

Sony electronics has at least a two generation jump on Canon .. right now.. and at a rate of investment of probably 15 times that of Canon's sensors, they probably won't catch up quickly.

There's the possiblity that Canon will do a quantum leap forward with their next sensor. but as of right now, they aren't anywhere close. sorry.
 
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rrcphoto

EOS 5D MK IV
Jun 20, 2013
2,505
146
What's asinine is the fact you can't read properly. I didn't say anything about the ILC market, I said Canon's market share. The only reason they put all their money and energy over the last year into mirrorless is because of market pressure and keep people from switching.
it would have taken Canon easily 3 to 5 or even more years to develop the EOS R and ready the RF lenses for production, you make it seem like they just created the entire thing in someone's basement overnight.

Canon would have been thinking about this since around when the A7 was released by Sony, and really did nothing as far as the market.
 

unfocused

EOS 5D SR
Fair enough... as someone who's only had EF, EF-M, and now RF, I forget that EF-S is even a thing. Is the EF-M system sucking the lifeblood out of EF-S? If not why not? If there's a really good reason for that, then maybe I'm wrong about the death more or less of SLR FF.
People on this forum love to extrapolate from their narrow personal experience. I'll play that game. I do some work for a small college. Every year there are maybe two-three students who decide they want something better than a cell phone. They come to me for some lessons in how to use the camera (There is no photography program here.) Invariably, they buy a DSLR and it's almost always a low-end Canon Rebel, frequently in a kit with a telephoto.

Two thoughts:

1) It's only two or three because most are content to use their phones and they become very skilled at using their phones. More young adults are taking more pictures than ever before, but cell phones are the dominant medium and likely to stay that way. That's the big trend and that's what the camera industry as a whole is focused on.

2) Like most consumers, even these young college students when deciding to buy a "real" camera, choose a DSLR.

My tiny sample means nothing. But my opinion (and it is only an opinion) is that there are far too many variables out there to assume that one format will replace another. I think that even with all their research Canon/Nikon/Sony etc. have no idea where the market is headed. Sony put all their eggs in the mirrorless basket because they couldn't effectively compete for DSLR users. Canon and Nikon are hedging their bets and are putting a lot of different options out there and seeing what works. My guess is that Nikon and Canon are playing the long game and we may not see any major product line shakeups for maybe five to 10 years, if ever.

On this forum, there always seem to be teams. With Team Mirrorless trying to beat Team DSLR. But, Canon and Nikon are more like coaches, trying to make sure their bench has a good mix of players -- full frame, crop, DSLR, mirrorless, point and shoot, instant print, etc. etc. The only teams they are on are Team Nikon and Team Canon.
 

3kramd5

EOS 5D MK IV
Mar 2, 2012
2,846
262
they don't really. their sensors still don't match Sony's at low ISO's in terms of DR, and they can't match what Sony has in terms of Aptina's dual ISO patent.
Canon's sensors have a much slower readout rate, and they have nothing outside of R&D patents that match the A9 sensor.
Sony Electronics has a 16 bit ADC 62MP and 100MP full frame sensors already done just waiting for camera bodies.

Sony electronics has at least a two generation jump on Canon .. right now.. and at a rate of investment of probably 15 times that of Canon's sensors, they probably won't catch up quickly.

There's the possiblity that Canon will do a quantum leap forward with their next sensor. but as of right now, they aren't anywhere close. sorry.
I didn’t realize compete with meant match in all aspects, including licensed IP.
 

BillB

EOS 6D MK II
May 11, 2017
875
103
Yes but it has become their #1 priority over the last year, I doubt this was the plan at the beginning. And that's fine, things change and you need to adapt and they are. The problem is consumers have their own ideas and that's changing the market in it's own way (plummeting sales). I started on a point and shoot, look where that is today (it's not because the camera companies killed it off)
Plummeting sales may well have very little to do the cameras that are now in the stores. It may have more to do with the phones people can buy and the cameras people already have. How many people print pictures anymore?
 
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Tom W

EOS 80D
Sep 5, 2012
141
64
Why would Canon feel compelled to cater to Sony fans? Sony is always going to have a share of the market and the cost-benefit for Canon or Nikon to convert those users is probably far too high.
I didn't mean "cater to" - I meant compete for. You don't gain market share by seeking to be moderately good; you gain it by being excellent. There have been a lot of people that have switched brands these last few years. Ideally, for Canon, you'd want them to switch to your brand and not away from it.

When people see all those big white lenses at the Olympics, they don't think "I need to run out and buy a Sony".
 

neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
Jul 21, 2010
23,830
1,003
What's asinine is the fact you can't read properly. I didn't say anything about the ILC market, I said Canon's market share.
What’s asinine is that you don’t understand that ILC market share is one aspect of the overall ILC market.

The only reason they put all their money and energy over the last year into mirrorless is because of market pressure and keep people from switching.
So there have been no DSLRs announced this year? No EF lens patents? Moreover, Canon has been invested in mirrorless for years, and has the best-selling MILC line. Presumably you’re talking about the FF ILC market, but that’s only a small segment of the ILC market as a whole. People haven’t been switching in the net. If they had, Canon would have lost market share. They haven’t. But somehow you believe that because you’re thinking of buying a Sony, Canon’s market share is suffering. Who are you, the butterfly flapping his wings in China that causes the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico? :rolleyes:

Yes but it has become their #1 priority over the last year, I doubt this was the plan at the beginning. And that's fine, things change and you need to adapt and they are. The problem is consumers have their own ideas and that's changing the market in it's own way (plummeting sales). I started on a point and shoot, look where that is today (it's not because the camera companies killed it off)
Oh, so now you’re talking about the ILC market, with your reference to plummeting sales. Except those plummeting sales haven’t altered market share at all from Canon’s perspective – they had close to 50% of the ILC market 10 years ago, and they have the same now. Sony did take a bit of market share from Nikon, though.
 

neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
Jul 21, 2010
23,830
1,003
I believe the OP is saying that they will die off quickly, not that they are already dead- don't worry ;) I take a more conservative approach to this- the high-end DSLR will hang around for some photography pros for quite some time but most hybrid shooters, prosumers, hobbyists, and video shooters will almost all be on MILC within the next 5-10 years.
Yes, I read what he wrote thanks.

Will most people be using MILCs in 5-10 years? We’ll see, it’s certainly a reasonable hypothesis. But, “The DSLR wil be dead in 5 years,” was the prediction by pundits...about 7 years ago. We’re still waiting, and the majority of buyers are still buying DSLRs, not MILCs.
 

SwissFrank

EOS 80D
Dec 9, 2018
189
64
2) Like most consumers, even these young college students when deciding to buy a "real" camera, choose a DSLR.
I liked your whole comment a lot but this one sentence was also my best guess: that people just stepping into ILC "know" that "the real" cameras are SLRs. (likewise in the 90s I never for one second considered rangefinders when getting started, it was SLR or nothing. Yet I ended up with a Leica M system with a shifting cast of
lenses, Mamiya 7+43/80/150, and a Contax G2+38/45/90...)
 
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